Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>*YTD our absolute return strategy is up 7,5% Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare In his mission to re-shore critical industries, raise revenue for the U.S. and narrow the deficit, Trump rolled out aggressive tariffs on virtually all countries (except Russia, Cuba and North Korea).</li><li>The new 10% tariff baseline is roughly triple the average US tariff rate before Trump reclaimed power in January and the calculation behind each tariff rates seems insane.</li><li>“We will charge them approximately half of what they are and have been charging us,” Trump said of the reciprocal tariffs.</li></ul>

*YTD our absolute return strategy is up 7,5% Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare In his mission to re-shore critical industries, raise revenue for the U.S. and narrow the deficit, Trump rolled out aggressive tariffs on virtually all countries (except Russia, Cuba and North Korea).The new 10% tariff baseline is roughly triple the average US tariff rate before Trump reclaimed power in January and the calculation behind each tariff rates seems insane.“We will charge them approximately half of what they are and have been charging us,” Trump said of the reciprocal tariffs.

Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare

<ul><li>As of today, we’re still short cotton, but we see a major potential reversal pattern brewing in the market.</li><li>A worsening economic outlook provided major headwinds to the price of cotton during the past few couple of months.</li><li>Overall, the market has corrected more than 50% since Q2 of 2022.</li></ul>

As of today, we’re still short cotton, but we see a major potential reversal pattern brewing in the market.A worsening economic outlook provided major headwinds to the price of cotton during the past few couple of months.Overall, the market has corrected more than 50% since Q2 of 2022.

Major Cotton Reversal Trade / Potential Investment Case

<ul><li>Breakout Time in Oil and FX During the last week there occurred many breakout patterns as the volatility in financial markets has risen significantly after president Trump introduced tariffs on Mexico and Canada.</li><li>The Ukraine-drama also doesn’t really help to calm market participants at the moment either.</li><li>We just highlight the technical pattern and add a few words about our current framework and how we view these markets at the moment. </li></ul>

Breakout Time in Oil and FX During the last week there occurred many breakout patterns as the volatility in financial markets has risen significantly after president Trump introduced tariffs on Mexico and Canada.The Ukraine-drama also doesn’t really help to calm market participants at the moment either.We just highlight the technical pattern and add a few words about our current framework and how we view these markets at the moment. 

Cocoa Prices Disconnected from Reality? // Breakout Time in Oil and FX

<ul><li>How We Traded Wheat Short Wheat prices saw a small revival over the last month.</li><li>From the rect bottom the forward futures contract recovered almost 15%.</li><li>During last week new selling pressure started to effect the market and led prices down again. </li></ul>

How We Traded Wheat Short Wheat prices saw a small revival over the last month.From the rect bottom the forward futures contract recovered almost 15%.During last week new selling pressure started to effect the market and led prices down again. 

How We Traded Wheat Short & CTA Positioning Update

<ul><li>Gold Anomaly As Warren Pies wrote in a post last week, the current performance of Gold is really an anomaly, both plotted against TIPS and the USD-Index.</li><li>This anomaly once again highlights the importance of thinking of gold as a liquidity hedge - it is not primarily an inflation hedge or always highly correlated with the USD or inflation expectations.</li><li>Warren wrote that 2024 (and also currently) is the fifth calendar year with positive 10y TIPS yields and positive gold returns (2005, 2006, 2008, 2023).</li></ul>

Gold Anomaly As Warren Pies wrote in a post last week, the current performance of Gold is really an anomaly, both plotted against TIPS and the USD-Index.This anomaly once again highlights the importance of thinking of gold as a liquidity hedge - it is not primarily an inflation hedge or always highly correlated with the USD or inflation expectations.Warren wrote that 2024 (and also currently) is the fifth calendar year with positive 10y TIPS yields and positive gold returns (2005, 2006, 2008, 2023).

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare

The new 10% tariff baseline is roughly triple the average US tariff rate before Trump reclaimed power in January and the calculation behind each...

The Commodity Report

Major Cotton Reversal Trade / Potential Investment Case

A worsening economic outlook provided major headwinds to the price of cotton during the past few couple of months. Overall, the market has...

The Commodity Report

Cocoa Prices Disconnected from Reality? // Breakout Time in Oil and FX

We just highlight the technical pattern and add a few words about our current framework and how we view these markets at the moment.

The Commodity Report

How We Traded Wheat Short & CTA Positioning Update

How We Traded Wheat Short Wheat prices saw a small revival over the last month. From the rect bottom the forward futures contract recovered almost...

The Commodity Report

Gold Anomaly

Gold Anomaly As Warren Pies wrote in a post last week, the current performance of Gold is really an anomaly, both plotted against TIPS and the USD...

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)