IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electric-power-development-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:292:1" rel="noopener">Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)</a>’s scheme (A$0.275) and off-market takeover offer (A$0.270) fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The offer is conditional on FIRB and shareholder approval. Skip Capital, which can block the scheme, has not declared its intention regarding J-Power's offer or launched a competing offer.</li>
<li>Skip’s silence suggests a greater probability of accepting the scheme offer. If the scheme fails, the takeover offer, due to its structure and price, caps the downside.</li>
</ul>


The Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) IE considers Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)’s scheme (A$0.275) and off-market takeover offer (A$0.270) fair and reasonable. 
The offer is conditional on FIRB and shareholder approval. Skip Capital, which can block the scheme, has not declared its intention regarding J-Power's offer or launched a competing offer.
Skip’s silence suggests a greater probability of accepting the scheme offer. If the scheme fails, the takeover offer, due to its structure and price, caps the downside.


Genex Power (GNX AU): Scheme Vote on 16 July as Skip Remains Silent

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> has entered a transaction implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electric-power-development-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:292:1" rel="noopener">Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)</a> for a scheme (A$0.275) and an off-market takeover offer (A$0.270). </li>
<li>Skip could vote against the scheme due to the low 10% premium to its 2022 offer and Genex’s operational capacity rising by 2.7x by the end of 2024.</li>
<li>The likely scenario is that J-POWER succeeds with its takeover offer. At the last close, the gross spread of the scheme and takeover offer was 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively.   </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) has entered a transaction implementation deed with Electric Power Development C (9513 JP) for a scheme (A$0.275) and an off-market takeover offer (A$0.270). 
Skip could vote against the scheme due to the low 10% premium to its 2022 offer and Genex’s operational capacity rising by 2.7x by the end of 2024.
The likely scenario is that J-POWER succeeds with its takeover offer. At the last close, the gross spread of the scheme and takeover offer was 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively.   


Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Binding Proposal as Skip’s Intentions Remain Unknown

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> has disclosed a non-binding scheme proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electric-power-development-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:292:1" rel="noopener">Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)</a> at A$0.275, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.185.</li>
<li>If the scheme fails, J-Power will launch an off-market takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition at A$0.270 per share. The dual-track bid is meant to counter Skip's stake.</li>
<li>The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 31 March. The offer is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip Capital’s acceptance.  </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) has disclosed a non-binding scheme proposal from Electric Power Development C (9513 JP) at A$0.275, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.185.
If the scheme fails, J-Power will launch an off-market takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition at A$0.270 per share. The dual-track bid is meant to counter Skip's stake.
The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 31 March. The offer is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip Capital’s acceptance.  


Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> has postponed its scheme meeting to 4 December after it received a non-binding indicative proposal from Brookfield/EIG to amend the current scheme.</li>
<li>The Board admitted the current scheme was likely to be voted down if the meeting was held today. The alternative transaction structure will struggle to gain shareholder support.</li>
<li>If Brookfield/EIG walks, the share price will fall, at least in the short term. We think a reasonable deal break price is A$7.40, an 11% downside to the last close.</li>
</ul>



Origin Energy (ORG AU) has postponed its scheme meeting to 4 December after it received a non-binding indicative proposal from Brookfield/EIG to amend the current scheme.
The Board admitted the current scheme was likely to be voted down if the meeting was held today. The alternative transaction structure will struggle to gain shareholder support.
If Brookfield/EIG walks, the share price will fall, at least in the short term. We think a reasonable deal break price is A$7.40, an 11% downside to the last close.


Origin Energy (ORG AU): Brookfield/EIG’s Latest Effort Falls Flat

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> scheme vote is on 23 November. Brookfield/EIG’s best and final offer is A$6.59 and US$1.86 per share, currently worth A$9.45.</li>
<li>With AusSuper reportedly increasing its stake past 17% on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. Brookfield/EIG will need a large YES vote turnout for a successful vote.</li>
<li>If the scheme is voted down, there are mainly three Plan Bs – Brookfield/EIG’s alternate transaction structure, Board-initiated strategic review or maintaining the status quo.</li>
</ul>


The Origin Energy (ORG AU) scheme vote is on 23 November. Brookfield/EIG’s best and final offer is A$6.59 and US$1.86 per share, currently worth A$9.45.
With AusSuper reportedly increasing its stake past 17% on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. Brookfield/EIG will need a large YES vote turnout for a successful vote.
If the scheme is voted down, there are mainly three Plan Bs – Brookfield/EIG’s alternate transaction structure, Board-initiated strategic review or maintaining the status quo.


New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Genex Power (GNX AU): Scheme Vote on 16 July as Skip Remains Silent

Skip’s silence suggests a greater probability of accepting the scheme. The takeover offer caps the downside due to structure and price. The gross...

Arun George

Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Binding Proposal as Skip’s Intentions Remain Unknown

Skip could derail the scheme vote. The likely scenario is that J-POWER succeeds with its takeover offer. At the last close, the gross spread of the...

Arun George

Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

The NBIO is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip’s acceptance. The off-market takeover is the floor price, as the minimum...

Arun George

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Brookfield/EIG’s Latest Effort Falls Flat

The alternative transaction structure will struggle to gain support. We think a reasonable deal break price is A$7.40, an 11% downside to the last...

Arun George

Origin Energy (ORG AU): State of Play

With AusSuper increasing its stake on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. If the scheme fails, there are mainly three Plan Bs, which...

Arun George

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