New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>September 2024 was a record month for Contact Energy (CEN), courtesy of a strong rebound in hydro generation and being able to sell high-priced hedge contracts to competitors.</li><li>We expect that momentum to continue through October 2024, at which point the high-priced hedge contract ceases.</li><li>In addition, CEN has good momentum with its new geothermal plant. </li></ul>

September 2024 was a record month for Contact Energy (CEN), courtesy of a strong rebound in hydro generation and being able to sell high-priced hedge contracts to competitors.We expect that momentum to continue through October 2024, at which point the high-priced hedge contract ceases.In addition, CEN has good momentum with its new geothermal plant. 

Contact Energy - Well-Timed Inflows Enable Record Sept 2024

<ul><li>Based on the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Mergers &amp; Acquisitions (M&amp;A) guidelines, and our analysis of the wholesale electricity market, we believe that Contact Energy's (CEN) proposed acquisition of Manawa Energy (MNW) is likely to be approved.</li><li>However, it is not a fait accompli, given the political and regulatory scrutiny the sector is currently under and the perception of reduced competition.</li><li>We lift the probability that the deal will be cleared to 70% (from 50%). </li></ul>

Based on the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Mergers &amp; Acquisitions (M&amp;A) guidelines, and our analysis of the wholesale electricity market, we believe that Contact Energy's (CEN) proposed acquisition of Manawa Energy (MNW) is likely to be approved.However, it is not a fait accompli, given the political and regulatory scrutiny the sector is currently under and the perception of reduced competition.We lift the probability that the deal will be cleared to 70% (from 50%). 

Contact Energy - Watts on the ComCom’s Mind

<ul><li>Contact Energy (CEN) has made a takeover bid for Manawa Energy (MNW) at an effective price of NZ$5.95, a +48% premium to MNW's last closing price and +20% premium to our MNW valuation.</li><li>The deal makes strategic sense, but the offer price is full and will require CEN to deliver on synergy benefits to create value.</li><li>With MNW directors and major shareholders Infratil (IFT) and TECT Holdings supportive of the deal, the only hurdle of note is obtaining Commerce Commission (ComCom) clearance. </li></ul>

Contact Energy (CEN) has made a takeover bid for Manawa Energy (MNW) at an effective price of NZ$5.95, a +48% premium to MNW's last closing price and +20% premium to our MNW valuation.The deal makes strategic sense, but the offer price is full and will require CEN to deliver on synergy benefits to create value.With MNW directors and major shareholders Infratil (IFT) and TECT Holdings supportive of the deal, the only hurdle of note is obtaining Commerce Commission (ComCom) clearance. 

Contact Energy - Time to Contact the ComCom

<ul>
<li>Contact Energy's (CEN) FY24 result hit the mark, with EBITDAF in line with expectations and well up on FY23, despite its Tauhara commissioning challenges.</li>
<li>Whilst wholesale electricity market conditions remain volatile, we believe CEN is best placed to weather the storm, and our FY25 forecast is little changed.</li>
<li>Recent decisions indicate CEN is preserving cash as much as possible. </li>
</ul>


Contact Energy's (CEN) FY24 result hit the mark, with EBITDAF in line with expectations and well up on FY23, despite its Tauhara commissioning challenges.
Whilst wholesale electricity market conditions remain volatile, we believe CEN is best placed to weather the storm, and our FY25 forecast is little changed.
Recent decisions indicate CEN is preserving cash as much as possible. 


Contact Energy - Pipeline Balancing Act — FY24 Result

<ul><li>Contact Energy (CEN) has had a steady end to FY24, with Tauhara commissioning volumes helping to offset below average hydro generation.</li><li>We calculate FY24 EBITDAF was NZ$662m (after market–making losses), up +NZ$116m on FY23.</li><li>With hydro conditions continuing to be challenging, short-term earnings risk is to the downside, but rising ASX futures prices will help lift medium-term earnings.</li></ul>

Contact Energy (CEN) has had a steady end to FY24, with Tauhara commissioning volumes helping to offset below average hydro generation.We calculate FY24 EBITDAF was NZ$662m (after market–making losses), up +NZ$116m on FY23.With hydro conditions continuing to be challenging, short-term earnings risk is to the downside, but rising ASX futures prices will help lift medium-term earnings.

Contact Energy - Steady End to FY24 - June '24 Operating Stats

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Contact Energy - Well-Timed Inflows Enable Record Sept 2024

September 2024 was a record month for Contact Energy (CEN), courtesy of a strong rebound in hydro generation and being able to sell high-priced...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Watts on the ComCom’s Mind

We lift the probability that the deal will be cleared to 70% (from 50%). The ComCom is expected to release its Statement of Preliminary Issues in...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Time to Contact the ComCom

Contact Energy (CEN) has made a takeover bid for Manawa Energy (MNW) at an effective price of NZ$5.95, a +48% premium to MNW's last closing price...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Pipeline Balancing Act — FY24 Result

Contact Energy's (CEN) FY24 result hit the mark, with EBITDAF in line with expectations and well up on FY23, despite its Tauhara commissioning...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Steady End to FY24 - June '24 Operating Stats

Contact Energy (CEN) has had a steady end to FY24, with Tauhara commissioning volumes helping to offset below average hydro generation.

Forsyth Barr

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