Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.</li>
<li>Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields </li>
<li>Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI</li>
</ul>


We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI


U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still believe it's possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).</li>
<li>As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn't be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.</li>
<li>Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).</li>
</ul>


We still believe it's possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).
As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn't be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).


Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

First Trust Dj Internet Ind / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.</li>
<li>The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.</li>
<li>A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.</li>
</ul>


Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.
The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.
A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.


Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Mondelez International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mondelez has outperformed the market both on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis.</li>
<li>The company is in a very good position to improve margins to higher levels than currently expected.</li>
<li>The stock remains as one of my favourite picks in the sector. The stock is one of the company's favourite picks.</li>
</ul>


Mondelez has outperformed the market both on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis.
The company is in a very good position to improve margins to higher levels than currently expected.
The stock remains as one of my favourite picks in the sector. The stock is one of the company's favourite picks.


Mondelez: Ignore The Noise And Invest In Strong And Well-Managed Brands

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.</li>
<li>From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.</li>
<li> Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.
From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.
 Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?


United States

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks The Consumer Staples Select Sector Index. The ETF holds large cap consumer staples stocks. Its holdings include cosmetic and personal care, pharmaceuticals, soft drinks, tobacco and food products. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP US)

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Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP US)

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar $DXY and Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

Downgrading Industrials/Manufacturing $XLI to market weight. Still see low probability of a meaningful correction if the $SPX is above 4300-4325....

Vermilion Research

Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

Our 8/22 expectations for oversold bounce coming to fruition as major multi-month supports hold $SPX $DJI $XLK $ACWI, & Treasury yields $TNX $TYX...

Vermilion Research

Mondelez: Ignore The Noise And Invest In Strong And Well-Managed Brands

Mondelez has outperformed the market both on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis. The company is in a very good position to improve margins to...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Curve Steepeners and the Boomer Trade

As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling. From our portfolio, you will also...

Steno Research

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