European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Ganz Mavag, a public/private consortium, requests authorisation for its €5/share offer for 100% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/talgo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21301:1" rel="noopener">Talgo SA (TLGO SM)</a>. It needs approvals from Spain and seven other EMEA regulators.</li>
<li>Yesterday's close remains similar to the announcement date (7 March), gross spread of 11.3%, indicating uncertainty regarding timeline and development. The market is pricing a 48% probability of deal completion.</li>
<li>The Spanish Government will delay the authorization process. Vs. comparables and considering uncertainties regarding backlog execution, investing in the company seems somewhat risky. The risk/reward ratio is not particularly attractive.</li>
</ul>


Ganz Mavag, a public/private consortium, requests authorisation for its €5/share offer for 100% of Talgo SA (TLGO SM). It needs approvals from Spain and seven other EMEA regulators.
Yesterday's close remains similar to the announcement date (7 March), gross spread of 11.3%, indicating uncertainty regarding timeline and development. The market is pricing a 48% probability of deal completion.
The Spanish Government will delay the authorization process. Vs. comparables and considering uncertainties regarding backlog execution, investing in the company seems somewhat risky. The risk/reward ratio is not particularly attractive.


Ganz-Mavag/Talgo: Request for Offer Authorisation

<ul>
<li>Trading in the shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/talgo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21301:1" rel="noopener">Talgo SA (TLGO SM)</a> is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group Magyar Vagon.</li>
<li>Stock market performance of Talgo has been lacklustre. Now, at €4.79, the shares are trading above comparables, in line with my fair value estimate (DCF-based) of €4.76/share. </li>
<li>Top investors (&gt;45%) seem very willing to cash in and I would imagine that Magyar Vagon has had the time to seek green light assurances from the Spanish Government. Long.
</li>
</ul>


Trading in the shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA (TLGO SM) is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group Magyar Vagon.
Stock market performance of Talgo has been lacklustre. Now, at €4.79, the shares are trading above comparables, in line with my fair value estimate (DCF-based) of €4.76/share. 
Top investors (&gt;45%) seem very willing to cash in and I would imagine that Magyar Vagon has had the time to seek green light assurances from the Spanish Government. Long.



Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

<ul>
<li>Rolling stock manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/talgo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21301:1" rel="noopener">Talgo SA (TLGO SM)</a>  confirms the interest of a Hungarian investor in launching a takeover bid at €5/share, 28% premium, 10.5 EV/24e EBITDA.</li>
<li>The implied market cap is €617 million and the implied EV is €837 million. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is €4.76/share, so the potential offer price seems adequate.</li>
<li>The 17 November closing share price implies a 44% probability of an offer (12% gross spread, 12% gain since disclosure), which indicates that the outcome seems uncertain.</li>
</ul>


Rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA (TLGO SM)  confirms the interest of a Hungarian investor in launching a takeover bid at €5/share, 28% premium, 10.5 EV/24e EBITDA.
The implied market cap is €617 million and the implied EV is €837 million. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is €4.76/share, so the potential offer price seems adequate.
The 17 November closing share price implies a 44% probability of an offer (12% gross spread, 12% gain since disclosure), which indicates that the outcome seems uncertain.


Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone revived in April 2016 after having recorded negligible growth in March 2016. On a seasonally and working day adjusted (swda) basis, production grew by 2% y-o-y in April 2016 compared to a rise of 0.1% y-o-y in March 2016. It grew 1.1% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in April 2016 compared to 1.6% y-o-y in March 2016.In terms of industry segments, electricity &amp; utilities increased 1.8% y-o-y in April 2016 after having recorded negative…

Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone revived in April 2016 after having recorded negligible growth in March 2016. On a seasonally and working day adjusted (swda) basis, production grew by 2% y-o-y in April 2016 compared to a rise of 0.1% y-o-y in March 2016. It grew 1.1% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in April 2016 compared to 1.6% y-o-y in March 2016.In terms of industry segments, electricity &amp; utilities increased 1.8% y-o-y in April 2016 after having recorded negative…

Eurozone: Industrial Production Revives Across Most Sectors and Countries in April

Industrial Production growth in the Eurozone came in lower than expected in March 2016. On a  seasonally and working day adjusted basis, production slowed to 0.2% y-o-y in March 2016 compared to a 1.1% y-o-y increase in February 2016. It grew 1.6% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average basis in March compared to 1.7% y-o-y in February.In terms of industry segments, chemicals &amp; basic pharmaceutical production saw a decline of around 5.5% y-o-y in March compared to an increase of 0.4% y-o-y in…

Industrial Production growth in the Eurozone came in lower than expected in March 2016. On a  seasonally and working day adjusted basis, production slowed to 0.2% y-o-y in March 2016 compared to a 1.1% y-o-y increase in February 2016. It grew 1.6% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average basis in March compared to 1.7% y-o-y in February.In terms of industry segments, chemicals &amp; basic pharmaceutical production saw a decline of around 5.5% y-o-y in March compared to an increase of 0.4% y-o-y in…

Eurozone: March Industrial Production Lower than Expected

Spain

Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles SA manufactures railroad cars and components, as well as complete turnkey transportation systems. Exports are increasingly important to the Company, with customers in the UK, Finland, Poland Hong Kong, Brazil and elsewhere. Domestically, the Company has, and will, supply rolling stock to the Madrid and Bilbao subway systems.

Construcciones Y Auxiliar De Ferrocarriles SA (CAF SM)

Construcciones Y Auxiliar De Ferrocarriles SA

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Construcciones Y Auxiliar De Ferrocarriles SA (CAF SM)

Ganz-Mavag/Talgo: Request for Offer Authorisation

Ganz Mavag seeks approval for €5/share offer for Talgo SA. Market uncertainty reflected in spread. Spanish Government will delay FDI authorisation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

Trading in shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Playing with Trains

Talgo is in play. A Hungarian investor interested in acquiring Talgo SA at €5/share, a 28% premium. The potential offer price seems adequate, but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Eurozone: Industrial Production Revives Across Most Sectors and Countries in April

Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone revived in April 2016 after having recorded negligible growth in March 2016. On a seasonally and...

Rajan Govil

Eurozone: March Industrial Production Lower than Expected

Industrial Production growth in the Eurozone came in lower than expected in March 2016. On a seasonally and working day adjusted basis, production...

Rajan Govil

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ganz-Mavag/Talgo: Request for Offer Authorisation

​Ganz Mavag seeks approval for €5/share offer for Talgo SA. Market uncertainty reflected in spread. Spanish Government will delay FDI authorisation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

​Trading in shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Playing with Trains

Talgo is in play. A ​Hungarian investor interested in acquiring Talgo SA at €5/share, a 28% premium. The potential offer price seems adequate, but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Eurozone: Industrial Production Revives Across Most Sectors and Countries in April

Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone revived in April 2016 after having recorded negligible growth in March 2016. On a seasonally and...

Rajan Govil

Eurozone: March Industrial Production Lower than Expected

Industrial Production growth in the Eurozone came in lower than expected in March 2016. On a seasonally and working day adjusted basis, production...

Rajan Govil

Ganz Mavag seeks approval for €5/share offer for Talgo SA. Market uncertainty reflected in spread. Spanish Government will delay FDI authorisation.

Trading in shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group...

Talgo is in play. A Hungarian investor interested in acquiring Talgo SA at €5/share, a 28% premium. The potential offer price seems adequate, but...