European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer

Magyar Vagon/​Talgo: Spanish Government Steps In

Ganz-Mavag/Talgo: Request for Offer Authorisation

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Rolling stock manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/talgo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21301:1" rel="noopener">Talgo SA (TLGO SM)</a>  confirms the interest of a Hungarian investor in launching a takeover bid at €5/share, 28% premium, 10.5 EV/24e EBITDA.</li>
<li>The implied market cap is €617 million and the implied EV is €837 million. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is €4.76/share, so the potential offer price seems adequate.</li>
<li>The 17 November closing share price implies a 44% probability of an offer (12% gross spread, 12% gain since disclosure), which indicates that the outcome seems uncertain.</li>
</ul>


Rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA (TLGO SM)  confirms the interest of a Hungarian investor in launching a takeover bid at €5/share, 28% premium, 10.5 EV/24e EBITDA.
The implied market cap is €617 million and the implied EV is €837 million. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is €4.76/share, so the potential offer price seems adequate.
The 17 November closing share price implies a 44% probability of an offer (12% gross spread, 12% gain since disclosure), which indicates that the outcome seems uncertain.


Construcciones Y Auxiliar De Ferrocarriles SA (CAF SM)

Construcciones Y Auxiliar De Ferrocarriles SA

Talgo SA

Playing with Trains