Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> may merge quicker than expected. Meaning a one-year "guess the price" ratio. Expect Tsuruha to gain against Welcia from here.</li>
<li>PUSUs exist in Hong Kong. In its bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GAPack (468 HK)</a>, XJF should sound out the SFC to put Bi/Hong on notice. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental (1381 HK)</a> effectively ticks off another pre-con. This transaction continues to trade too wide to terms. </li>
</ul>



Tsuruha (3391 JP) and Welcia (3141 JP) may merge quicker than expected. Meaning a one-year "guess the price" ratio. Expect Tsuruha to gain against Welcia from here.
PUSUs exist in Hong Kong. In its bid for GAPack (468 HK), XJF should sound out the SFC to put Bi/Hong on notice. 

Canvest Environmental (1381 HK) effectively ticks off another pre-con. This transaction continues to trade too wide to terms. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia, GAPack, Canvest, HKBN

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a> launches an all-share takeover bid for 100% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bpm-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28121:1" rel="noopener">Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM)</a>. The exchange equation is 0.175 UCG IM x 1 BAMI IM.</li>
<li>The implied value of Banco BPM shares is €6.6658/share, just a 0.3% premium. The transaction offers strong financial appeal, with Banco BPM trading at 0.72x P/BVPS and 11.52% dividend yield.</li>
<li>The gross spread of +7.4% suggests UniCredit may need to enhance the offer—adjusting the exchange ratio and/or adding cash—unless its share price approaches the IBES median target.</li>
</ul>



UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) launches an all-share takeover bid for 100% of Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM). The exchange equation is 0.175 UCG IM x 1 BAMI IM.
The implied value of Banco BPM shares is €6.6658/share, just a 0.3% premium. The transaction offers strong financial appeal, with Banco BPM trading at 0.72x P/BVPS and 11.52% dividend yield.
The gross spread of +7.4% suggests UniCredit may need to enhance the offer—adjusting the exchange ratio and/or adding cash—unless its share price approaches the IBES median target.


Unicredit/Banco BPM: Italian Banking Consolidation

<ul>
<li>Hypermarket reshuffles as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dfi-retail-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7427:1" rel="noopener">DFI Retail (DFI SP)</a> exit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yonghui-superstores-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15910:1" rel="noopener">Yonghui Superstores (601933 CH)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group  (9988 HK)</a> potentially exits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Evidently the influence of a younger hip third-generation tycoon-scion wasn't the panacea for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> and its ongoing issues in the HK/China property space.</li>
<li>MBK bumps the Tender Offer prices for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17944:1" rel="noopener">Korea Zinc (010130 KS)</a> by 13.6% to ₩750,000 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/young-poong-precision-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16188:1" rel="noopener">Young Poong Precision (036560 KS)</a> by 25% to ₩25,000. What with the Choi's do?</li>
</ul>


Hypermarket reshuffles as JD.com (9618 HK) and DFI Retail (DFI SP) exit Yonghui Superstores (601933 CH); and Alibaba Group  (9988 HK) potentially exits Sun Art Retail (6808 HK).
Evidently the influence of a younger hip third-generation tycoon-scion wasn't the panacea for New World Development (17 HK) and its ongoing issues in the HK/China property space.
MBK bumps the Tender Offer prices for Korea Zinc (010130 KS) by 13.6% to ₩750,000 and Young Poong Precision (036560 KS) by 25% to ₩25,000. What with the Choi's do?


Last Week in Event SPACE: DFI/JD.com/Yonghui, Alibaba/Sun Art, New World Development, Austal

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Germany

Commerzbank AG attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services.  The Bank offers mortgage loans, securities brokerage and asset management services, private banking, foreign exchange, and treasury services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia, GAPack, Canvest, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Unicredit/Banco BPM: Italian Banking Consolidation

UniCredit SpA launches all-share takeover bid for Banco BPM SpA, offering €6.6658/share with strong financial appeal. Market suggests potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: DFI/JD.com/Yonghui, Alibaba/Sun Art, New World Development, Austal

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia, GAPack, Canvest, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Unicredit/Banco BPM: Italian Banking Consolidation

​UniCredit SpA launches all-share takeover bid for Banco BPM SpA, offering €6.6658/share with strong financial appeal. Market suggests potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: DFI/JD.com/Yonghui, Alibaba/Sun Art, New World Development, Austal

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

UniCredit SpA launches all-share takeover bid for Banco BPM SpA, offering €6.6658/share with strong financial appeal. Market suggests potential...