Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund

<ul>
<li>In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.</li>
<li>After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.
We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.
After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.


Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples - Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The suprise return of Bob Iger as Disney CEO can fix certain Bob Chapek specific issues: relationships with investors, politicians, and creative types.</li>
<li>But Iger faces similar intractable issues: accelerating cord cutting, a transition to a less profitable form of media distribution, and a potential recession.</li>
<li>We think Iger will refocus investors on revenues/profits at Disney+ rather than subscribers, will more efficiently spend on content through decentralizing decision making... and potentially sell Disney to Apple.</li>
</ul>


The suprise return of Bob Iger as Disney CEO can fix certain Bob Chapek specific issues: relationships with investors, politicians, and creative types.
But Iger faces similar intractable issues: accelerating cord cutting, a transition to a less profitable form of media distribution, and a potential recession.
We think Iger will refocus investors on revenues/profits at Disney+ rather than subscribers, will more efficiently spend on content through decentralizing decision making... and potentially sell Disney to Apple.


Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds, Fund Newsletters

Fund Newsletters

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tweedy, Browne Company LLC provides investment advisory services. The Company offers portfolio management, financial planning, and consulting services for individuals, institutions, partnerships, pension and profit-sharing plans, charitable foundations, trusts, and offshore funds. Tweedy, Browne serves investors in the U.S.</li>
<li>In this volatile environment, the Tweedy, Browne Funds trailed their respective primary benchmark indices for the quarter.</li>
<li>Returns for the quarter were led by solid results from a number of our branded consumer product holdings.</li>
<li>As a result of the ongoing volatility, our fundportfolios over the last year havebeen in the process of becoming refreshedwith a significant number of new stocks.</li>
<li>Theopportunity set being presented tous today in non-US equities is one of thebest we have seen in well over adecade.</li>
</ul>


Tweedy, Browne Company LLC provides investment advisory services. The Company offers portfolio management, financial planning, and consulting services for individuals, institutions, partnerships, pension and profit-sharing plans, charitable foundations, trusts, and offshore funds. Tweedy, Browne serves investors in the U.S.
In this volatile environment, the Tweedy, Browne Funds trailed their respective primary benchmark indices for the quarter.
Returns for the quarter were led by solid results from a number of our branded consumer product holdings.
As a result of the ongoing volatility, our fundportfolios over the last year havebeen in the process of becoming refreshedwith a significant number of new stocks.
Theopportunity set being presented tous today in non-US equities is one of thebest we have seen in well over adecade.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Comcast delivered an all-around beat in its recent results and its performance in its Cable Communications business in the third quarter remained impressive.</li><li>However, it operates in a turbulent business environment in terms of increased competition from the new entrants as well as depressed move activity.</li><li>Comcast has recently unveiled an ambitious broadband initiative promising to pass 50 million businesses and homes with the combination of Wi-Fi and 10G-enabled broadband by 2025.</li></ul>

Comcast delivered an all-around beat in its recent results and its performance in its Cable Communications business in the third quarter remained impressive.However, it operates in a turbulent business environment in terms of increased competition from the new entrants as well as depressed move activity.Comcast has recently unveiled an ambitious broadband initiative promising to pass 50 million businesses and homes with the combination of Wi-Fi and 10G-enabled broadband by 2025.

Comcast Inc: New Broadband Initiative & Other Drivers

<ul>
<li>Across the board miss as DTC losses peak, park margins weaken, and linear likely to fall off a cliff. </li>
<li>Big FY2023 guide down on revenues (HSD vs. LDD previously) and OI growth (HSD vs. ~25% consensus previously). </li>
<li>Disney profitability lower for longer as macro headwinds on parks, accelerating cord cutting, and pushed out D+ profitability means OI likely down $2B in both FY23-24.</li>
</ul>


Across the board miss as DTC losses peak, park margins weaken, and linear likely to fall off a cliff. 
Big FY2023 guide down on revenues (HSD vs. LDD previously) and OI growth (HSD vs. ~25% consensus previously). 
Disney profitability lower for longer as macro headwinds on parks, accelerating cord cutting, and pushed out D+ profitability means OI likely down $2B in both FY23-24.


Disney 4Q2022: Cord Cutting Exacerbating DTC Losses

United States

Comcast Corporation provides media and television broadcasting services. The Company offers video streaming, television programming, high-speed internet, cable television, and communication services. Comcast serves customers worldwide.

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Comcast Corp Class A (CMCSA US)

Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples - Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the $SPX 4100-4165 area. Upgrading...

Vermilion Research

Disney: Could Iger Sell to Apple?

We think Iger will refocus investors on revenues/profits at Disney+ over subscribers, will efficiently spend on content through decentralizing...

Aaron Gabin

Tweedy, Browne Fund Q3 2022 Commentary

Tweedy, Browne Company LLC provides investment advisory services. The Company offers portfolio management, financial planning, and consulting...

Fund Newsletters

Comcast Inc: New Broadband Initiative & Other Drivers

Comcast delivered an all-around beat in its recent results and its performance in its Cable Communications business in the third quarter remained...

Baptista Research

Disney 4Q2022: Cord Cutting Exacerbating DTC Losses

Disney shockingly weak profitability outlook for FY2023 is more a reflection of the return of cord cutting to being issue #1 denting the model,...

Aaron Gabin

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