TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.</li>
<li>The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.</li>
<li>Disney's streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs</li>
</ul>


Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.
The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.
Disney's streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs


Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

<ul>
<li>Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)</li>
<li>Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.</li>
<li>Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.</li>
</ul>


Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)
Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.
Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Comcast Corporation started off with 2023 on a mixed note.</li><li>While its revenues and earnings were above Wall Street expectations, the total company revenue of $29.7 billion fell 4%.</li><li>We give Comcast Corporation a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.</li></ul>

Comcast Corporation started off with 2023 on a mixed note.While its revenues and earnings were above Wall Street expectations, the total company revenue of $29.7 billion fell 4%.We give Comcast Corporation a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.

Comcast Corporation: Subscriber Growth Slowdown & Growing Peacock Losses Are Concerning – Key Drivers

<ul><li>Comcast achieved a strong result that surpassed Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.</li><li>The company is slowly growing its ARPU as it is working towards building its customer relationships by steadily introducing new capabilities, services, and benefits.</li><li>In 2023, ARPU growth should continue to be the main factor influencing their residential broadband revenue growth.</li></ul>

Comcast achieved a strong result that surpassed Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.The company is slowly growing its ARPU as it is working towards building its customer relationships by steadily introducing new capabilities, services, and benefits.In 2023, ARPU growth should continue to be the main factor influencing their residential broadband revenue growth.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside</li>
<li>Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO</li>
</ul>


We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500
And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside
Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO


Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

United States

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. broadcasts various channels of audio from its satellites. The Company provides its services throughout the continental United States for a monthly subscription fee. Sirius delivers various streams of commercial-free music in every genre, as well as streams of  news, sports, weather, talk, comedy, and public radio.

News Corporation operates in the publishing industry. The Company provides publications consisting of newspapers, magazines, books and promotional inserts.

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. produces live concerts and sells tickets to those events over the Internet. The Company also offers ticketing services for leading arenas, stadiums, professional sports franchises and leagues, college sports teams, performing arts venues, museums and theaters.

The Walt Disney Company is an entertainment company that conducts operations in media networks, studio entertainment, theme parks and resorts, consumer products, and interactive media. The Company produces motion pictures, television programs, and musical recordings, as well as books and magazines.

Omnicom Group Inc. provides advertising, marketing and corporate communications services. The Company's agencies, which operate in major markets around the world, provide a comprehensive range of services including traditional media advertising; customer relationship management ("CRM"); public relations; and specialty communications.

Liberty Media Corp-Liberty Braves operates as a media company. The Company offers media, communications, and entertainment businesses. Liberty Media Corp-Liberty Braves conducts business in the United States.

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. is a professional sports company that owns and operates sports franchises.

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS US)

The New York Times Company operates media businesses.  The Company publishes daily newspapers and operates Internet websites.  The newspapers and websites distribute news and entertainment.

The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. is an organization of advertising agencies and marketing service companies.  The Company operates globally in the sectors of advertising, independent media buying, direct marketing, healthcare communications, interactive consulting services, marketing research, promotions, experiential marketing, public relations, and sports marketing.

Liberty Global plc owns interests in broadband, distribution, and content companies operating outside the continental United States, principally in Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

REA Group Limited provides online property listings, web development and internet related technology services to the real estate industry along with providing advertising services to Australian companies.  The Company also offers online real estate search services to the Australian public.

Publicis Groupe SA offers advertising services.  The Company develops advertising campaigns and sells advertising on billboards and urban furniture, in newspapers and magazines, on radio, and in movie theaters.  Publicis offers direct marketing, customer relationship marketing, sales promotion, public relations and human resources services, and operates retail drugstores.

Informa PLC provides business information on a worldwide basis.  The Company provides information in the finance and insurance, maritime transport and trade, law and tax, telecom and media, commodities and energy, and biomedical and pharmaceutical global markets.  Informa provides its information through newspapers, magazines, electronic media, books, and journals.

Pearson plc provides education products and services to institutions, governments and individual learners in over 80 countries. The Company's major revenue markets are North America, 'Core' including the UK, Italy and Australia and 'Growth' including Brazil, China and South Africa. It also owns the Financial Times, 50% of the Economist and 47% of Penguin Random House.

TOHO CO., LTD. produces and distributes motion pictures for cinema, television, and video.  The Company also sells character merchandise based on their media productions, distributes foreign films, operates musical theaters, and produces musical shows. In addition, Toho manages movie theaters in urban areas.

DENTSU INC. mainly provides comprehensive advertising services.  The Company also provides marketing and event planning & promotion services.  Dentsu has associated companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.

TOKYO BROADCASTING SYSTEM HOLDINGS, INC. is a media company that broadcasts television and radio programs nationally.  The Company offers a variety of TV programs & film production, visual & music software production, and cable television programming.  Tokyo Broadcasting System provides digital satellite broadcasting services and also operates real estate business.

Compagnie du Cambodge is an investment holding company that invests in companies active in agriculture, industry, real estate and finance.  The Company owns and operates plantations in Malaysia and forests in Cameroon.

JC Decaux SA offers advertising services.  The Company sells advertising on street furniture such as bus shelters, free standing panels, columns, and automatic toilets, billboards, and posters on buses, trains, and subways, and at railroad stations and airports.

CTS Eventim AG & Co. KGaA produces, sells, brokers and distributes entry tickets for concerts, theater productions, artistic, sporting and similar events. The Company operates an online booking system that allows event promoters to sell their tickets over a variety of distribution channels. CTS also sells tickets directly over the Internet and a call center and offers system support services.

Comcast Corporation provides media and television broadcasting services. The Company offers video streaming, television programming, high-speed internet, cable television, and communication services. Comcast serves customers worldwide.

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Comcast Corp Class A (CMCSA US)

Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

Disney's recent announcement of an ad-supported tier being launched for Disney+ strikes us as a questionable strategic choice that indicates market...

Aaron Gabin

Netflix 4Q21: Don’t Look Down

Netflix's poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation,...

Aaron Gabin

Comcast Corporation: Subscriber Growth Slowdown & Growing Peacock Losses Are Concerning – Key Drivers

Comcast Corporation started off with 2023 on a mixed note. While its revenues and earnings were above Wall Street expectations, the total company...

Baptista Research

Comcast Corporation: Major Drivers

Comcast achieved a strong result that surpassed Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings. The company is slowly growing...

Baptista Research

Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the $SPX to cap upside. Many other indexes and Sectors are also testing important resistance levels dating back...

Vermilion Research

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