Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The market cap review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> ends in 6 trading days.</li>
<li>Following the market consultation and reduction in the turnover ratio, there could be four changes to the index. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">TRUE</a> merger could result in another inclusion in Q1 2023.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the December rebalance is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 7.4bn. More than 1x ADV to trade on most stocks.</li>
</ul>


The market cap review period for the December rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) ends in 6 trading days.
Following the market consultation and reduction in the turnover ratio, there could be four changes to the index. The DTAC/TRUE merger could result in another inclusion in Q1 2023.
Estimated one-way turnover at the December rebalance is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 7.4bn. More than 1x ADV to trade on most stocks.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in December

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating and maintaion TP at Bt45.00 based on 35.6xPE’1H23E (+0.5S.D. of 5-year trading history).3Q22 core earnings was 7% above our forecast due to strong iPhone 14 </li>
<li>3Q22 earnings resisted inflationary impact 3Q22 core earnings was at Bt721m (+29% YoY, +16% QoQ).Strong YoY growth was underlined by revenue growth while QoQ growth was led by gross margin </li>
<li>Sales in 3Q22 was at Bt15bn (+48% YoY, +3% QoQ). YoY revenue surged due to robust demand for iPhone 14 and other synergizing products like the Macbook and Apple</li>
</ul>


We maintain our BUY rating and maintaion TP at Bt45.00 based on 35.6xPE’1H23E (+0.5S.D. of 5-year trading history).3Q22 core earnings was 7% above our forecast due to strong iPhone 14 
3Q22 earnings resisted inflationary impact 3Q22 core earnings was at Bt721m (+29% YoY, +16% QoQ).Strong YoY growth was underlined by revenue growth while QoQ growth was led by gross margin 
Sales in 3Q22 was at Bt15bn (+48% YoY, +3% QoQ). YoY revenue surged due to robust demand for iPhone 14 and other synergizing products like the Macbook and Apple


Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> between now and the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There is an ongoing market consultation with significant implications for constituent selection and there is also a potential intra-review change due to the DTAC-TRUE merger.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, there could three or four index changes during the December 2022 Rebalance depending on the outcome of the DTAC-TRUE merger.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) between now and the December 2022 Rebalance.
There is an ongoing market consultation with significant implications for constituent selection and there is also a potential intra-review change due to the DTAC-TRUE merger.
Based on the latest available data, there could three or four index changes during the December 2022 Rebalance depending on the outcome of the DTAC-TRUE merger.


Thailand SET50 Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: BJC Is the Most Interesting Name

<ul>
<li>We maintain BUY with TP of Bt45.00 based on 35.6xPE’1H23E (0.5S.D. of 5-year trading history). Analyst meeting came out with positive tone on the long-term growth trends from 5G</li>
<li>Large 3Q22E earnings is one-time and non-cash We expect 3Q22E earnings to be at Bt1.7bn (+200% YoY, +176% QoQ). The significant YoY and QoQ increase is due to a one-time </li>
<li>Stripping the large gain, 3Q22E recurring earnings is expected to be at Bt678m (+21% YoY, +9% QoQ). Both YoY and QoQ increase is mainly driven by sales growth led </li>
</ul>


We maintain BUY with TP of Bt45.00 based on 35.6xPE’1H23E (0.5S.D. of 5-year trading history). Analyst meeting came out with positive tone on the long-term growth trends from 5G
Large 3Q22E earnings is one-time and non-cash We expect 3Q22E earnings to be at Bt1.7bn (+200% YoY, +176% QoQ). The significant YoY and QoQ increase is due to a one-time 
Stripping the large gain, 3Q22E recurring earnings is expected to be at Bt678m (+21% YoY, +9% QoQ). Both YoY and QoQ increase is mainly driven by sales growth led 


COM7 : Continued Strong Demand Post-Covid

<ul>
<li>Last week we had the implementation of the first two tranches of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rebalance with the third tranche to be implemented at the close on Monday.</li>
<li>Thursday saw the NIFTY indices implementation while Friday marked the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices.</li>
<li>There were large inflows to China, Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong ETFs during the week while there were some outflows from Japan.</li>
</ul>


Last week we had the implementation of the first two tranches of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rebalance with the third tranche to be implemented at the close on Monday.
Thursday saw the NIFTY indices implementation while Friday marked the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices.
There were large inflows to China, Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong ETFs during the week while there were some outflows from Japan.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, China A50, SET50, Bilibili, Leapmotor, Onewo, CALB

Thailand

Com7 Public Company Limited operates a chain of retail outlets that imports, retails, and distributes computers and IT-related products in Thailand. The Company offers products, such as smartphones, tablets, notebooks, and computer sets. Com7 also offers computer components, such as CPUs, hard drives, and network and accessories.

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Com7 (COM7 TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in December

Following the market consultation, there could be 4 index change in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

COM7 : 3Q22 Earnings Beat Our Forecast

We maintain our BUY rating and maintaion TP at Bt45.00 based on 35.6xPE’1H23E (+0.5S.D. of 5-year trading history). 3Q22 core earnings was 7% above...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Thailand SET50 Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: BJC Is the Most Interesting Name

I expect RATCH to replace DTAC in the SET 50 index prior to the December Rebalance. DELTA, BJC, and COM7 could be added and KCE, BLA, and SAWAD...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

COM7 : Continued Strong Demand Post-Covid

We maintain BUY with TP of Bt45.00 based on 35.6xPE’1H23E (0.5S.D. of 5-year trading history). Analyst meeting came out with positive tone on the...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, China A50, SET50, Bilibili, Leapmotor, Onewo, CALB

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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