Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Two pairs of constituent changes marked in squares in INTERNET and GAME may offer meaningful trading opportunities: Seojin System IN / Ahnlab OUT and Com2us IN / Doubleugames OUT.</li>
<li>Along with TIGER ETF, stealth index funds follow these indices. So, constituent changes in INTERNET and GAME create a flow impact of 0.3~0.6x DTV, even not in the Top 3.</li>
<li>Also, INTERNET and GAME have less passive flow impact degradation risk due to momentum trading flows compared to BATTERY and BIO.</li>
</ul>


Two pairs of constituent changes marked in squares in INTERNET and GAME may offer meaningful trading opportunities: Seojin System IN / Ahnlab OUT and Com2us IN / Doubleugames OUT.
Along with TIGER ETF, stealth index funds follow these indices. So, constituent changes in INTERNET and GAME create a flow impact of 0.3~0.6x DTV, even not in the Top 3.
Also, INTERNET and GAME have less passive flow impact degradation risk due to momentum trading flows compared to BATTERY and BIO.


Overlooked Trading Angle in K-New Deal Rebalancing Event: Two LONG SHORT Pairs to Watch

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>On 7 March, Kakao Corp (035720 KS) announced a tender offer of up to 35% of outstanding shares of SM Entertainment at 150,000 won per share.</li>
<li>We believe that this will be a successful tender offer and the share price of SM Entertainment is likely to surge to near 150,000 won per share. </li>
<li>The minority shareholders of SM Entertainment are cheering on as its share price appreciation will be nearly 96% from end of 2022 to the tender offer price of 150,000 won. </li>
</ul>


On 7 March, Kakao Corp (035720 KS) announced a tender offer of up to 35% of outstanding shares of SM Entertainment at 150,000 won per share.
We believe that this will be a successful tender offer and the share price of SM Entertainment is likely to surge to near 150,000 won per share. 
The minority shareholders of SM Entertainment are cheering on as its share price appreciation will be nearly 96% from end of 2022 to the tender offer price of 150,000 won. 


Kakao Announces a Tender Offer of SM Entertainment at 150,000 Won Per Share

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced in the next few days and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.</li>
<li>We forecast one add/delete for the Secondary Battery Index and Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical (003670 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a>; the largest outflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmw-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2834:1" rel="noopener">KMW (032500 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced in the next few days and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.
We forecast one add/delete for the Secondary Battery Index and Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.
The largest inflows are expected on Posco Chemical (003670 KS) and Douzone Bizon (012510 KS); the largest outflows are expected on SK Innovation (096770 KS) and KMW (032500 KS).


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms

<ul>
<li>On 7 February, it was announced that SM Entertainment will conduct a third party rights offering and CB issue to Kakao Corp.</li>
<li>Post these deals, Kakao Corp will own a 9.05% stake in SM Entertainment.</li>
<li>The rights offering and the CB issue have all the hallmarks of an intermediate deal prior to an eventual takeover of SM Entertainment by the Kakao Group.</li>
</ul>


On 7 February, it was announced that SM Entertainment will conduct a third party rights offering and CB issue to Kakao Corp.
Post these deals, Kakao Corp will own a 9.05% stake in SM Entertainment.
The rights offering and the CB issue have all the hallmarks of an intermediate deal prior to an eventual takeover of SM Entertainment by the Kakao Group.


SM Entertainment: A Rights Offering & CB Issue to Kakao Corp

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Com2us Corp (078340 KS) is the most likely corporate activist target in Korea's game industry.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Com2uS suggests a target price of 97,321 won which is 49% higher than current price.</li>
<li>Finally, the company is expected to launch at least 3-4 promising new games this year. All in all, we have a positive view of Com2uS Corp. </li>
</ul>


Com2us Corp (078340 KS) is the most likely corporate activist target in Korea's game industry.
Our base case valuation of Com2uS suggests a target price of 97,321 won which is 49% higher than current price.
Finally, the company is expected to launch at least 3-4 promising new games this year. All in all, we have a positive view of Com2uS Corp. 


Com2uS Corp: The Most Likely Corporate Activist Target in Korea's Game Industry

South Korea

Com2uS Corporation develops and markets game software based on digital convergence contents for internet mobile application.  The Company provides its products to domestic and overseas markets such as Asia, Europe, and North America.

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Com2us Corp (078340 KS)

Overlooked Trading Angle in K-New Deal Rebalancing Event: Two LONG SHORT Pairs to Watch

This post uncovers the overlooked trading angle in the K-New Deal index rebalancing event and presents two pairs of LONG SHORT setups that we...

Sanghyun Park

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms

We forecast one change to the Secondary Battery and Game indices and two changes to the BBIG Index. There are big flows and impact on a few stocks....

Brian Freitas

SM Entertainment: A Rights Offering & CB Issue to Kakao Corp

On 7 February, it was announced that SM Entertainment will conduct a third party rights offering and CB issue to Kakao Corp. Post these deals,...

Douglas Kim

Com2uS Corp: The Most Likely Corporate Activist Target in Korea's Game Industry

Com2us Corp (078340 KS) is the most likely corporate activist target in Korea's game industry in our view. The company is expected to launch at...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Overlooked Trading Angle in K-New Deal Rebalancing Event: Two LONG SHORT Pairs to Watch

This post uncovers the overlooked trading angle in the K-New Deal index rebalancing event and presents two pairs of LONG SHORT setups that we...

Sanghyun Park

Kakao Announces a Tender Offer of SM Entertainment at 150,000 Won Per Share

On 7 March, Kakao Corp (035720 KS) announced a tender offer of up to 35% of outstanding shares of SM Entertainment at 150,000 won per share. We...

Douglas Kim

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms

We forecast one change to the Secondary Battery and Game indices and two changes to the BBIG Index. There are big flows and impact on a few stocks....

Brian Freitas

SM Entertainment: A Rights Offering & CB Issue to Kakao Corp

On 7 February, it was announced that SM Entertainment will conduct a third party rights offering and CB issue to Kakao Corp. Post these deals,...

Douglas Kim

Com2uS Corp: The Most Likely Corporate Activist Target in Korea's Game Industry

Com2us Corp (078340 KS) is the most likely corporate activist target in Korea's game industry in our view. The company is expected to launch at...

Douglas Kim