Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Across our active Global fund universe, Value managers have seen $41bn in outflows over the past 5-years, compared to $65bn of inflows in to Growth funds.</p><p>With Value funds capturing some long awaited outperformance this year, we analyse the current holdings set up among the 63 active Value funds in our analysis.</p><p>Overweights in EMEA persist against underweights in Asia and the Americas.  Financials, Materials and Industrials are the key overweights versus underweights in Information Technology.</p><p>US Financials are the standout overweight, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citigroup-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:279:1" rel="noopener">Citigroup Inc (C US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-express-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:916:1" rel="noopener">American Express Co (AXP US)</a> the key positions.  The FAAMG group of stocks remain key underweight holdings, though <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a> is the most widely held of the group. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> is almost totally avoided and in Asia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> screen as 'Unloved' by global active Value managers.</p>

Across our active Global fund universe, Value managers have seen $41bn in outflows over the past 5-years, compared to $65bn of inflows in to Growth funds.With Value funds capturing some long awaited outperformance this year, we analyse the current holdings set up among the 63 active Value funds in our analysis.Overweights in EMEA persist against underweights in Asia and the Americas.  Financials, Materials and Industrials are the key overweights versus underweights in Information Technology.US Financials are the standout overweight, with Citigroup Inc (C US) and American Express Co (AXP US) the key positions.  The FAAMG group of stocks remain key underweight holdings, though Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) is the most widely held of the group. Tesla Motors (TSLA US) is almost totally avoided and in Asia, Meituan (3690 HK) , JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) and Pinduoduo (PDD US) screen as 'Unloved' by global active Value managers.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, aims to raise around US$1bn in its Philippines IPO.</p><p>It primarily has two main businesses: Asia-Pacific Branded Food and Beverage Business, which sells instant noodles, biscuits and other products, and meat alternative business which includes Quorn and Cauldron meat alternatives brands.</p><p>MNC has a high market share in the Philippines in the instant noodles and biscuits segment along with a few other categories as well. Quorn as well has a strong lead over its next largest peers in the Chicken alternative meat segment in the grocery channel. </p><p>In this note, I'll talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</p>

Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, aims to raise around US$1bn in its Philippines IPO.It primarily has two main businesses: Asia-Pacific Branded Food and Beverage Business, which sells instant noodles, biscuits and other products, and meat alternative business which includes Quorn and Cauldron meat alternatives brands.MNC has a high market share in the Philippines in the instant noodles and biscuits segment along with a few other categories as well. Quorn as well has a strong lead over its next largest peers in the Chicken alternative meat segment in the grocery channel. In this note, I'll talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Positives - High Market Share

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, CNOOC, Coca Cola Amatil, Kunlun Energy, Honshu Chemical, Toa Oil

<div>
<p>After Australia's largest non-alcoholic beverage bottler <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-amatil-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:675:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU)</a> announced an indicative proposal of A$12.75/share from Coca-Cola European Partners plc (CCEP) on the <a href="https://ccaauauesprdrsg057str001.blob.core.windows.net/media/media/ccamatil/ccamatilau/files/asx/2020/201026_ccepindicativeproposalandamatiltradingupdate.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">26 October</a>,  reports subsequently <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/coca-cola-amatil-takeover-delayed-as-investors-call-for-higher-bid-20210125-p56wqp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">surfaced</a> that some major shareholders considered the proposal inadequate. CCL closed at or above terms for 48 consecutive days prior to the latest development.</p>
<p>Yesterday morning, CCEP and CCL <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02340945-2A1280279?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered into</a> Scheme Implementation Deed at A$13.50/share, a 5.9% bump to the firm Offer on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02304483-2A1261358?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">4 November</a>, and a  25.6% premium to the undisturbed price.</p>
<p>The Offer has been declared best and final. The price will be adjusted for any final 2H20 dividends declared and paid prior to the implementation of any Scheme.</p>
<div>
<p>A$13.50/share backs out a 12.2x/13.8x FY19/FY20E EV/EBITDA, which compares to CCL's five-year average of 9.5x/9.7x.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Optically, the offer price is a multi-year high. However, this is only a 4.8% premium to the pre-COVID drop-off.</p>
<p>Terms appear fair. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:979:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Co (KO US)</a> (TCCC) owns 30.807% of Amatil and 19% of CCEP. This alliance effectively rules out a third-party challenger.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


After Australia's largest non-alcoholic beverage bottler Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) announced an indicative proposal of A$12.75/share from Coca-Cola European Partners plc (CCEP) on the 26 October,  reports subsequently surfaced that some major shareholders considered the proposal inadequate. CCL closed at or above terms for 48 consecutive days prior to the latest development.
Yesterday morning, CCEP and CCL entered into Scheme Implementation Deed at A$13.50/share, a 5.9% bump to the firm Offer on the 4 November, and a  25.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The Offer has been declared best and final. The price will be adjusted for any final 2H20 dividends declared and paid prior to the implementation of any Scheme.

A$13.50/share backs out a 12.2x/13.8x FY19/FY20E EV/EBITDA, which compares to CCL's five-year average of 9.5x/9.7x.


Optically, the offer price is a multi-year high. However, this is only a 4.8% premium to the pre-COVID drop-off.
Terms appear fair. Coca Cola Co (KO US) (TCCC) owns 30.807% of Amatil and 19% of CCEP. This alliance effectively rules out a third-party challenger.



As always, more below the fold.


Coca Cola Amatil: CCEP's Best & Final Offer

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>In October 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-amatil-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:675:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU)</a> (CCL), one of the largest bottlers and distributors of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:979:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Co (KO US)</a>’s range of products, announced a non-binding indicative proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-european-partners" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29709:1" rel="noopener">Coca-Cola European Partners (CCEP US)</a> (CCEP) to acquire 69.2% of the share capital of CCL (at A$ 12.75 per share in cash, adjusted for 2H20 dividends paid), held by shareholders other than The Coca-Cola Company (KO).</li>
<li>Financial advisors to the deal are Rothschild &amp; Co, Credit Suisse and UBS.</li>
<li>The takeover offer was at a 23% premium to CCL‘s undisturbed one-week volume-weighted price. In our previous notes, we deemed that the offer price was reasonable considering CCL’s somewhat weak fundamentals.</li>
</ul><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-generous-offer-by-coca-cola-european-partners" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44693" rel="noopener">A Generous Offer By Coca-Cola European Partners</a></p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/growing-investor-opposition-to-ccep-s-take-over-offer-will-there-be-a-bump" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45143" rel="noopener">Growing Investor Opposition to CCEP's Take Over Offer: Will There Be a Bump?</a></p><ul>
<li>However, a number of institutional investors pushed back against Coca-Cola European Partners’ takeover offer, suggesting that the takeover offer undervalues the company.</li>
<li>Yesterday, news emerged that Citigroup expects an improved takeover offer for CCL in the next 6-8 weeks.</li>
</ul>


In October 2020, Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) (CCL), one of the largest bottlers and distributors of Coca Cola Co (KO US)’s range of products, announced a non-binding indicative proposal from Coca-Cola European Partners (CCEP US) (CCEP) to acquire 69.2% of the share capital of CCL (at A$ 12.75 per share in cash, adjusted for 2H20 dividends paid), held by shareholders other than The Coca-Cola Company (KO).
Financial advisors to the deal are Rothschild &amp; Co, Credit Suisse and UBS.
The takeover offer was at a 23% premium to CCL‘s undisturbed one-week volume-weighted price. In our previous notes, we deemed that the offer price was reasonable considering CCL’s somewhat weak fundamentals.
A Generous Offer By Coca-Cola European PartnersGrowing Investor Opposition to CCEP's Take Over Offer: Will There Be a Bump?
However, a number of institutional investors pushed back against Coca-Cola European Partners’ takeover offer, suggesting that the takeover offer undervalues the company.
Yesterday, news emerged that Citigroup expects an improved takeover offer for CCL in the next 6-8 weeks.


Coca-Cola Amatil Takeover Offer: A Bump Forthcoming?

United States

The Coca-Cola Company manufactures, markets, and distributes soft drink concentrates and syrups.  The Company also distributes and markets juice and juice-drink products.  Coca-Cola distributes its products to retailers and wholesalers in the United States and internationally.

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Coca Cola Co (KO US)

Where Are Global Value Funds Positioned?

With Value funds capturing some long awaited outperformance this year, we analyse the current holdings set up among the active Global Value funds...

Steven Holden

Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, CNOOC, Coca Cola Amatil, Kunlun Energy, Honshu Chemical, Toa Oil

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Coca Cola Amatil: CCEP's Best & Final Offer

Valuations under the Offer appear fair. Trading tight at a gross/annualised spread of ~1%/4%, assuming completion early May. Overall this Offer is...

David Blennerhassett

Coca-Cola Amatil Takeover Offer: A Bump Forthcoming?

In October 2020, CCL announced a non-binding indicative proposal from CCEP to acquire 69.2% of the share capital of CCL held by shareholders other...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Where Are Global Value Funds Positioned?

With Value funds capturing some long awaited outperformance this year, we analyse the current holdings set up among the active Global Value funds...

Steven Holden

Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Positives - High Market Share

Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, aims to raise around US$1bn in its IPO. MNC has a high market share in the Philippines...

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, CNOOC, Coca Cola Amatil, Kunlun Energy, Honshu Chemical, Toa Oil

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Coca Cola Amatil: CCEP's Best & Final Offer

Valuations under the Offer appear fair. Trading tight at a gross/annualised spread of ~1%/4%, assuming completion early May. Overall this Offer is...

David Blennerhassett

Coca-Cola Amatil Takeover Offer: A Bump Forthcoming?

In October 2020, CCL announced a non-binding indicative proposal from CCEP to acquire 69.2% of the share capital of CCL held by shareholders other...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri