Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Fed Chairman Powell unintentionally re-emerged as a central bank dove. Yet, the poor ISM Manufacturing Index reading paints an entirely different picture, signaling 17%(!) downside.</li>
<li>Apart from the fact that US Small Caps cannot rely on Big Tech Companies to send prices higher, there is another compelling reason why they have been underperforming - debt.</li>
<li>Earnings season: Negative price reactions meet mixed surprises. This is especially true in the US, where valuation looks demanding. Interestingly, price-earnings action in China may signal a bottom is in.</li>
</ul>


Fed Chairman Powell unintentionally re-emerged as a central bank dove. Yet, the poor ISM Manufacturing Index reading paints an entirely different picture, signaling 17%(!) downside.
Apart from the fact that US Small Caps cannot rely on Big Tech Companies to send prices higher, there is another compelling reason why they have been underperforming - debt.
Earnings season: Negative price reactions meet mixed surprises. This is especially true in the US, where valuation looks demanding. Interestingly, price-earnings action in China may signal a bottom is in.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The latest wave of China stimulus not only confirms the dire financial state of local governments but also indicates that they have reached the limits of their borrowing capacity.</li>
<li>China President Xi’s visit to the PBoC raises the likelihood of new interest rate cuts and cuts in the Required Reserve Ratio for banks.</li>
<li>This puts the PBoC in a precarious state. No easing means the property recession continues, while the opposite means it must sell more US dollar assets to prevent yuan depreciation.</li>
</ul>


The latest wave of China stimulus not only confirms the dire financial state of local governments but also indicates that they have reached the limits of their borrowing capacity.
China President Xi’s visit to the PBoC raises the likelihood of new interest rate cuts and cuts in the Required Reserve Ratio for banks.
This puts the PBoC in a precarious state. No easing means the property recession continues, while the opposite means it must sell more US dollar assets to prevent yuan depreciation.


China Stimulus Update – Centralization of Debt Still Means MORE Debt!

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Key Points: The recent UST rally may offer relief to risk assets, and the market appears well-positioned for a bear market rally.</li><li>Our perspective remains unchanged: we believe the underlying economy is weaker than what current market sentiment reflects.</li><li>Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains unresolved.</li></ul>

Key Points: The recent UST rally may offer relief to risk assets, and the market appears well-positioned for a bear market rally.Our perspective remains unchanged: we believe the underlying economy is weaker than what current market sentiment reflects.Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains unresolved.

EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome to a shorter piece on where to find fundamental value in the current FX environment.</li><li>We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the best FX bets now that the tightening cycle is likely soon coming to an end.</li><li>Read along, as we run through the most important pairs below.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome to a shorter piece on where to find fundamental value in the current FX environment.We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the best FX bets now that the tightening cycle is likely soon coming to an end.Read along, as we run through the most important pairs below.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>AI / In Depth: The opportunities and roadblocks facing China’s AI models</li><li><p>Li Keqiang /: Li Keqiang’s remains to be cremated in Beijing on Thursday</p></li><li><p>China-U.S. /: California Governor Newsom visit boosts U.S.-China relations, climate collaboration</p></li></ul>

AI / In Depth: The opportunities and roadblocks facing China’s AI modelsLi Keqiang /: Li Keqiang’s remains to be cremated in Beijing on ThursdayChina-U.S. /: California Governor Newsom visit boosts U.S.-China relations, climate collaboration

CX Daily: The Opportunities and Roadblocks Facing China’s AI Models 

China

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The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

Start your week in financial markets with last week’s biggest stories! The Weekly Market Monitor will take you through the biggest charts and events.

Jeroen Blokland

China Stimulus Update – Centralization of Debt Still Means MORE Debt!

China just can't get a break. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell below 50 again in October, while the Services PMI is stuck just above that...

Jeroen Blokland

EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight

Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains...

Steno Research

FX Watch – Exploring FX Fundamentals

We’ll take a trip back to the theory books and use some of the good old correlations and fundamental value metrics to give some insights on the...

Steno Research

CX Daily: The Opportunities and Roadblocks Facing China’s AI Models

AI / In Depth: The opportunities and roadblocks facing China’s AI models Since Beijing lifted the floodgates for Chinese firms to launch their...

Caixin Global

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