Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Let’s start with the current situation in the Red Sea.</li><li>Things are very grim and the only container ships that currently dare to sail through the Red Sea are Russian due to their support of Iran and the Houthis.</li><li>Yesterday a Maersk ship hauling US government cargo had to turn back in the Red Sea after explosions nearby.</li></ul>

Let’s start with the current situation in the Red Sea.Things are very grim and the only container ships that currently dare to sail through the Red Sea are Russian due to their support of Iran and the Houthis.Yesterday a Maersk ship hauling US government cargo had to turn back in the Red Sea after explosions nearby.

Shipping Watch: Consider buying your Christmas presents now!

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to capitalize on its stride, or if the bet in fact has got legs and fundamentals working for it.</li><li>Yesterday morning CET, the BoJ announced its latest monetary policy decision, and once again, it chose to maintain the status quo.</li><li>While FX and FI are synonymous to Japan, its equity market has arguably transformed from under-equitized to one of the hottest bull markets in the uncertain conditions of today.</li></ul>

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to capitalize on its stride, or if the bet in fact has got legs and fundamentals working for it.Yesterday morning CET, the BoJ announced its latest monetary policy decision, and once again, it chose to maintain the status quo.While FX and FI are synonymous to Japan, its equity market has arguably transformed from under-equitized to one of the hottest bull markets in the uncertain conditions of today.

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.</li><li>Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative terms</li><li>Instead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.</li></ul>

Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative termsInstead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The hosts discuss the long-standing concern over the risk of conflict between China and Taiwan, which has been a topic of speculation for many years.</li><li>They note that recent events, such as the tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, have heightened concerns about the prospect of a hot conflict in the future.</li><li>The importance of Taiwan's economy and its role in global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, has made the potential disruption of these supply chains a major concern for the world. This, in turn, may give China more incentive to assert its position on the Taiwan issue.</li></ul><p><em>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The hosts discuss the long-standing concern over the risk of conflict between China and Taiwan, which has been a topic of speculation for many years.They note that recent events, such as the tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, have heightened concerns about the prospect of a hot conflict in the future.The importance of Taiwan's economy and its role in global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, has made the potential disruption of these supply chains a major concern for the world. This, in turn, may give China more incentive to assert its position on the Taiwan issue.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan

<ul><li>A victory for Lai in the upcoming election has the potential to significantly elevate geopolitical risks.</li><li>Should Taipei fail to maintain a satisfactory relationship with Beijing threats of retaliation will fuel derisking going forwardThe Taiwan election could reignite another round of cold trade sanctions between the United States and China.</li><li>Given the current hawkishness of the Biden administration, it’s unlikely that this stance will be softened in the upcoming U.S. election.</li></ul>

A victory for Lai in the upcoming election has the potential to significantly elevate geopolitical risks.Should Taipei fail to maintain a satisfactory relationship with Beijing threats of retaliation will fuel derisking going forwardThe Taiwan election could reignite another round of cold trade sanctions between the United States and China.Given the current hawkishness of the Biden administration, it’s unlikely that this stance will be softened in the upcoming U.S. election.

EM by EM #37: The Taiwan election & the Trade war

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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Shipping Watch: Consider buying your Christmas presents now!

Let’s start with the current situation in the Red Sea. Things are very grim and the only container ships that currently dare to sail through the...

Steno Research

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to...

Steno Research

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

Last time around in our EM series (see here) we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the...

Steno Research

The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan

In this podcast episode, the hosts introduce themselves, discuss the recurring risk between China and Taiwan, acknowledge their past incorrect...

Odd Lots

EM by EM #37: The Taiwan election & the Trade war

Main takeaways:A victory for Lai in the upcoming election has the potential to significantly elevate geopolitical risks. Should Taipei fail to...

Steno Research

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