Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Southbound will close for 3 days due to holiday, we view it as a good time to buy the stock on short-term momentum</li>
<li>Investment thesis for CNOOC is similar to China Mobile: Strong southbound flows and A/H premium to narrow to support H share price</li>
<li>Valuation is attractive.  Potential share buybacks and trading dual counter (to narrow AH gap) are the upcoming catalysts</li>
</ul>


Southbound will close for 3 days due to holiday, we view it as a good time to buy the stock on short-term momentum
Investment thesis for CNOOC is similar to China Mobile: Strong southbound flows and A/H premium to narrow to support H share price
Valuation is attractive.  Potential share buybacks and trading dual counter (to narrow AH gap) are the upcoming catalysts


Actionable Trade: CNOOC H-Share 883HK – Strong SB Flow, A/H Prem, Low Valuation & Multiple Catalysts

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The 27 April vote was adjourned as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a> Board was notified by “<em>certain beneficial owners indicating that their latest voting instructions were not duly processed.</em>”</li>
<li>The meeting would not be adjourned if the YES vote was going to sail through. A delay helps the offeror as these owners will vote YES and deal fatigue sets in. </li>
<li>Risk-Reward is still unfavourable at the last close. The deal break fair value range is HK$1.37-1.45 per share, with 16.0%-11.0% downside. This compares to the 13.5% upside from the offer. </li>
</ul>


The 27 April vote was adjourned as Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) Board was notified by “certain beneficial owners indicating that their latest voting instructions were not duly processed.”
The meeting would not be adjourned if the YES vote was going to sail through. A delay helps the offeror as these owners will vote YES and deal fatigue sets in. 
Risk-Reward is still unfavourable at the last close. The deal break fair value range is HK$1.37-1.45 per share, with 16.0%-11.0% downside. This compares to the 13.5% upside from the offer. 


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Adjourned Scheme Meeting Points to a Close Vote

<ul>
<li>Ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s vote on 27 April, the gross spread to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a>’s HK$1.85 offer sits uncomfortably high at 13.5%. </li>
<li>The key risk remains that minorities vote down the scheme. Retail forums are active with mixed views on the offer. Peers have also modestly re-rated, which helps the NO camp. </li>
<li>At the last close, the risk-reward profile is unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (-16.0%) is greater than the upside to a scheme pass (+13.5%).  </li>
</ul>


Ahead of Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s vote on 27 April, the gross spread to Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)’s HK$1.85 offer sits uncomfortably high at 13.5%. 
The key risk remains that minorities vote down the scheme. Retail forums are active with mixed views on the offer. Peers have also modestly re-rated, which helps the NO camp. 
At the last close, the risk-reward profile is unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (-16.0%) is greater than the upside to a scheme pass (+13.5%).  


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Nervousness Ahead of the 27 April Vote

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 14th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Sensetime, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 14th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Sensetime, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou Technology.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 14th): Sensetime, SMIC, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Four stock remains, and 10 stocks added to our portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 106% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 61%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Four stock remains, and 10 stocks added to our portfolio
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 106% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 61%


China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

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CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Adjourned Scheme Meeting Points to a Close Vote

Risk-reward is still unfavourable at the last close. The deal break fair value range is HK$1.37-1.45 per share, with 16.0%-11.0% downside. This...

Arun George

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Nervousness Ahead of the 27 April Vote

The vote remains on a knife edge. At the last close, the risk-reward profile is unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (-16.0%) is greater...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 14th): Sensetime, SMIC, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Sensetime, SMIC, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 40

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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52-week Range

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Actionable Trade: CNOOC H-Share 883HK – Strong SB Flow, A/H Prem, Low Valuation & Multiple Catalysts

This insight aims to ride the short-term momentum of CNOOC H-share 883 HK. Investment thesis includes: Strong southbound flow, A/H premium,...

Jacob Cheng

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Adjourned Scheme Meeting Points to a Close Vote

Risk-reward is still unfavourable at the last close. The deal break fair value range is HK$1.37-1.45 per share, with 16.0%-11.0% downside. This...

Arun George

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Nervousness Ahead of the 27 April Vote

The vote remains on a knife edge. At the last close, the risk-reward profile is unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (-16.0%) is greater...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 14th): Sensetime, SMIC, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, Kuaishou

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Sensetime, SMIC, Cnooc, China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 40

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total...

A. Stotz Investment Research