Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the HSIII was 29 December. The changes will be announced on 16 February and become effective after the close 1 March.</li>
<li>We see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zx-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36624:1" rel="noopener">Zx Inc</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flowing-cloud-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36461:1" rel="noopener">Flowing Cloud Technology (6610 HK)</a> in the index. There is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4paradigm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34465:1" rel="noopener">4Paradigm (6682 HK)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmge-technology-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:451:1" rel="noopener"> CMGE Tech (302 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Capping will result in passives buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the HSIII was 29 December. The changes will be announced on 16 February and become effective after the close 1 March.
We see a high probability of Zx Inc replacing Flowing Cloud Technology (6610 HK) in the index. There is a lower probability of 4Paradigm (6682 HK) replacing  CMGE Tech (302 HK). 
Capping will result in passives buying Meituan (3690 HK) and selling Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), JD.com (9618 HK) and Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK). 


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance Preview: ZX Inc Could Replace Flowing Cloud

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vng-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26716:1" rel="noopener">VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US)</a> is Vietnam’s leading, homegrown digital ecosystem. VNG has filed for a Nasdaq listing to raise US$300 million.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vng-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112269" rel="noopener">VNG IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on the Communications and Media business' faltering fundamentals, the Fintech business' uncertain path to profitability and VNG’s underlying cash burn.</li>
</ul>



VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US) is Vietnam’s leading, homegrown digital ecosystem. VNG has filed for a Nasdaq listing to raise US$300 million.
In VNG IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on the Communications and Media business' faltering fundamentals, the Fintech business' uncertain path to profitability and VNG’s underlying cash burn.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vng-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26716:1" rel="noopener">VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US)</a> is Vietnam’s leading, homegrown digital ecosystem. VNG has filed for a Nasdaq listing to raise US$300 million.    </li>
<li>VNG is the number one mobile games publisher in Vietnam. VNG’s Zalo, Zing MP3 and Bao Moi applications are Vietnam’s leading messaging, music streaming and online news applications. </li>
<li>The bull case rests on the core games business’ improving KPIs, return to growth, good revenue visibility, and reducing dependence on critical partners combined with VNG’s improving margin.</li>
</ul>



VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US) is Vietnam’s leading, homegrown digital ecosystem. VNG has filed for a Nasdaq listing to raise US$300 million.    
VNG is the number one mobile games publisher in Vietnam. VNG’s Zalo, Zing MP3 and Bao Moi applications are Vietnam’s leading messaging, music streaming and online news applications. 
The bull case rests on the core games business’ improving KPIs, return to growth, good revenue visibility, and reducing dependence on critical partners combined with VNG’s improving margin.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 1st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Meituan, Xpeng, CNOOC, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 1st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Meituan, Xpeng, CNOOC, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 1st): Meituan, Xpeng, CNOOC, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CMGE delivered above-industrial rev growth (+25% YoY) and profitability in 1H23.</li><li>Looking ahead, we expect 2H23E to see rev acceleration and stronger earnings, for: 1) rising contribution from newly launched games in 1H23; 2) several key titles to be launched in 4Q23E; 3) R&amp;D to decline with lower outsourcing cost and manageable S&amp;M.</li><li>We think pipeline delay has been partially priced in recent stock price, and the delay would be acceptable for fierce competition and high TAC in summer. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CMGE delivered above-industrial rev growth (+25% YoY) and profitability in 1H23.Looking ahead, we expect 2H23E to see rev acceleration and stronger earnings, for: 1) rising contribution from newly launched games in 1H23; 2) several key titles to be launched in 4Q23E; 3) R&amp;D to decline with lower outsourcing cost and manageable S&amp;M.We think pipeline delay has been partially priced in recent stock price, and the delay would be acceptable for fierce competition and high TAC in summer. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CMGE Technology (302 HK) – Looking into improving profitability in 2H23E

China

CMGE Technology Group Limited serves customers in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CMGE Tech (302 HK)

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance Preview: ZX Inc Could Replace Flowing Cloud

ZX Inc could replace Flowing Cloud in the HSIII in March. Fourth Paradigm could just miss out on index inclusion. Estimated one-way turnover is...

Brian Freitas

VNG IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on the Communications and Media business' faltering fundamentals, the Fintech business' uncertain path to profitability and...

Arun George

VNG IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on the core games business’ improving KPIs, return to growth, good revenue visibility, and reducing dependence on critical...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 1st): Meituan, Xpeng, CNOOC, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Meituan, Xpeng, CNOOC, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CMGE Technology (302 HK) – Looking into improving profitability in 2H23E

We think pipeline delay has been partially priced in recent stock price, and the delay would be acceptable for fierce competition and high TAC in...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)