Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Technical Analysis

Base metals outlook for the coming months is negative, along with the global relative underperformance of Emerging Markets over Developed Markets.From a cyclical and technical point of view, this will be illustrated by weaker levels on Copper and linked currencies such as AUD or CLP

Base metals outlook for the coming months is negative, along with the global relative underperformance of Emerging Markets over Developed Markets.From a cyclical and technical point of view, this will be illustrated by weaker levels on Copper and linked currencies such as AUD or CLP

Copper (HG1): Back at Resistance for a New 23/30% Drop

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

Not great news? Two recent sets of data ought to makes investors re-assess risks: (1) the CrossBorder Capital weekly track of major Central Bank QE policies (this includes China and EM) shows the weakest print for four years [see chart 1], and (2) Now-Casting Economics'proprietary tracking of the China economy shows a sharp skid in Q2 activity rates [see chart 2].<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/050/752/original/weeklyG4.JPG?1524745895" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="50752"></figure>With investors' risk appetite still high (albeit not as excessive as it was) and the US dollar finally showing some firmness again…

Not great news? Two recent sets of data ought to makes investors re-assess risks: (1) the CrossBorder Capital weekly track of major Central Bank QE policies (this includes China and EM) shows the weakest print for four years [see chart 1], and (2) Now-Casting Economics'proprietary tracking of the China economy shows a sharp skid in Q2 activity rates [see chart 2].With investors' risk appetite still high (albeit not as excessive as it was) and the US dollar finally showing some firmness again…

Agghhh.. Tighter Central Banks, Wobbly China!

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22872" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22872:1">Copper (COPPER COMDTY)</a> (HG1 Comdty)is approaching from key midterm resistance levels at 335/340, with exhaustion signals taking place. Therefore, a 12/17% setback should be expected over the coming months.</li></ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/044/952/original/HG1%20Comdty%20%28Generic%201st%20'HG'%20Fut%202018-02-05%2019-09-05.png?1519036778" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="44952"></figure><ul>
<li>Linked stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21814" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12491" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1">Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US)</a> are expected to relatively underperform against other metals companies.</li>
<li>In parallel, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26756:1">CLP (USDCLP CURNCY)</a> is also showing bottomish signals close to 595. A bullish reaction should be taking place towards 650 even 680.</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/044/955/original/USDCLP%20Curncy%20%28USD-CLP%20X-RATE%29%20T%202018-02-05%2019-16-49.png?1519036988" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="44955"></figure><ul><li>CLP…</li></ul>


Copper (COPPER COMDTY) (HG1 Comdty)is approaching from key midterm resistance levels at 335/340, with exhaustion signals taking place. Therefore, a 12/17% setback should be expected over the coming months.
Linked stocks like Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US) are expected to relatively underperform against other metals companies.
In parallel, CLP (USDCLP CURNCY) is also showing bottomish signals close to 595. A bullish reaction should be taking place towards 650 even 680.
CLP…

Chile Peso and Copper at Key Levels : Correction

Chile

The Chilean peso is the official currency of the Republic of Chile.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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CLP (USDCLP CURNCY)

Copper (HG1): Back at Resistance for a New 23/30% Drop

Base metals outlook for the coming months is negative, along with the global relative underperformance of Emerging Markets over...

Guillaume Coutant

Agghhh.. Tighter Central Banks, Wobbly China!

Not great news? Two recent sets of data ought to makes investors re-assess risks: (1) the CrossBorder Capital weekly track of major Central Bank QE...

Michael J. Howell

Chile Peso and Copper at Key Levels : Correction

Copper (COPPER COMDTY) (HG1 Comdty)is approaching from key midterm resistance levels at 335/340, with exhaustion signals taking place. Therefore,...

Guillaume Coutant

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