Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

Poland's central bank held rates steady at the MPC meeting last month while Hungary and Czechia embarked on their tightening cycles. Rates in Poland have thus outperformed its counterparts, weighing on our trade recommendation to Receive Czech 2y vs Pay Poland 2y rate. We maintain the recommendation because we expect rates in Poland to catch up with its neighbors as the economy is rebounding strongly which should lead to persistent inflationary pressures.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Poland's central bank held rates steady at the MPC meeting last month while Hungary and Czechia embarked on their tightening cycles. Rates in Poland have thus outperformed its counterparts, weighing on our trade recommendation to Receive Czech 2y vs Pay Poland 2y rate. We maintain the recommendation because we expect rates in Poland to catch up with its neighbors as the economy is rebounding strongly which should lead to persistent inflationary pressures.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Interest Rates in Poland Diverge from Neighbors

Following the surprise rate hike by Mexico's central bank last week, the rates curve flattened dramatically. We have made the case before that the central bank should raise rates earlier than market expectations and the central bank's hawkish turn supports our recommendation to buy the Mexican peso against the Canadian dollar.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Following the surprise rate hike by Mexico's central bank last week, the rates curve flattened dramatically. We have made the case before that the central bank should raise rates earlier than market expectations and the central bank's hawkish turn supports our recommendation to buy the Mexican peso against the Canadian dollar.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Mexico’s Curve Flattens Following the Rate Hike Surprise

With the Fed turning hawkish, the pressure on EM central banks to do the same has increased. In this note, we identify the countries where 2s5s slopes can flatten as rate hikes get priced in earlier than before.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

With the Fed turning hawkish, the pressure on EM central banks to do the same has increased. In this note, we identify the countries where 2s5s slopes can flatten as rate hikes get priced in earlier than before.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which EM Countries to Target for 2s5s Flatteners?

Since the hawkish FOMC meeting last week, the US rates curve has flattened. In this note, we address the question: if the US curve continues to flatten, will it take EM with it? Our short answer is yes, but with a couple of caveats.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Since the hawkish FOMC meeting last week, the US rates curve has flattened. In this note, we address the question: if the US curve continues to flatten, will it take EM with it? Our short answer is yes, but with a couple of caveats.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Can US Curve Flattening Pull EM with It?

While our base case is not one of a repeat of the reflationary scare from earlier this year, we need to be cognizant of the risk with the Fed beginning to tiptoe towards tapering. As such, similar to an earlier analysis on currencies, we evaluate which EM rates are the most vulnerable if there is another steep correction in US Treasuries.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

While our base case is not one of a repeat of the reflationary scare from earlier this year, we need to be cognizant of the risk with the Fed beginning to tiptoe towards tapering. As such, similar to an earlier analysis on currencies, we evaluate which EM rates are the most vulnerable if there is another steep correction in US Treasuries.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which EM Rates Are Most Vulnerable to Rising US Rates?

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CLP 10Y (CHSWP10 CURNCY)

Rates 10y Dashboard: Interest Rates in Poland Diverge from Neighbors

Despite the rally in Poland's rates on the back of the dovish central bank, we continue to recommend paying Poland 2y rates against receiving Czech...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Mexico’s Curve Flattens Following the Rate Hike Surprise

Last week's hawkish surprise by Mexico's central bank supports our recommendation to buy the Mexican peso against the Canadian dollar.

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which EM Countries to Target for 2s5s Flatteners?

With the Fed turning hawkish, we identify the EM countries where 2s5s slopes can flatten as rate hikes get priced in earlier than before.

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Can US Curve Flattening Pull EM with It?

In this note, we address the question: if the US curve continues to flatten, as it has since the FOMC meeting last week, will it take EM with it?...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which EM Rates Are Most Vulnerable to Rising US Rates?

Similar to an earlier analysis on currencies, we evaluate which EM rates are the most vulnerable if the risk scenario of another correction in US...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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