Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss how Warren Buffett's recent investment in Ulta Beauty is likely to have a positive impact on CJ Corp's valuation. </li>
<li>CJ Olive Young (largest shareholder is CJ Corp) is the dominant health &amp; beauty cosmetics chain in Korea. CJ Olive Young has a similar business model to Ulta Beauty.</li>
<li>Our NAV analysis suggests an implied market cap of 4.7 trillion won or implied price of 160,977 won per share for CJ Corp, representing a 38% upside from current levels.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss how Warren Buffett's recent investment in Ulta Beauty is likely to have a positive impact on CJ Corp's valuation. 
CJ Olive Young (largest shareholder is CJ Corp) is the dominant health &amp; beauty cosmetics chain in Korea. CJ Olive Young has a similar business model to Ulta Beauty.
Our NAV analysis suggests an implied market cap of 4.7 trillion won or implied price of 160,977 won per share for CJ Corp, representing a 38% upside from current levels.


Warren Buffett Invests in Ulta Beauty - Positive Impact on CJ Corp?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.</li>
<li>Over halfway through the review period, we forecast 39 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Three potential downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, four more potential downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Over halfway through the review period, we forecast 39 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
Three potential downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, four more potential downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.


KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive

<ul>
<li>Our NAV analysis of Doosan Corp suggests an implied market cap of 3.9 trillion won or implied price per share of 235,039 won which is 17.2% lower than current price.</li>
<li>Given the lack of upside relative to its NAV, we have a Negative View of Doosan Corp. </li>
<li>Considering Doosan Group's repeated corporate governance concerns in the past decade, our holdco discount estimate of 50% is probably generous. </li>
</ul>


Our NAV analysis of Doosan Corp suggests an implied market cap of 3.9 trillion won or implied price per share of 235,039 won which is 17.2% lower than current price.
Given the lack of upside relative to its NAV, we have a Negative View of Doosan Corp. 
Considering Doosan Group's repeated corporate governance concerns in the past decade, our holdco discount estimate of 50% is probably generous. 


Doosan Corp - NAV Valuation Analysis Amid Index Rebalance Expectations

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.</li>
<li>A quarter of the way through the review period, we forecast 37 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Four downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, three more downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
A quarter of the way through the review period, we forecast 37 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
Four downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, three more downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.


KOSPI Size Indices: Overlap Between Global Passive Selling & Downward Migrations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 4Q 2024.</li>
<li>Volatility has been high in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks resulting in some interesting widening of some gaps among numerous holdcos and opcos in Korea. </li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 19 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and the other 19 opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 4Q 2024.
Volatility has been high in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks resulting in some interesting widening of some gaps among numerous holdcos and opcos in Korea. 
Of the 38 pair trades, 19 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and the other 19 opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period. 


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2024

South Korea

CJ Corp. is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, manufactures processed food products.  The subsidiaries' products include refined sugar, monosodium glutamate (MSG), condiment, wheat powder, flour, cooking oil, processed meats, and animal feed.

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CJ Corp (001040 KS)

Warren Buffett Invests in Ulta Beauty - Positive Impact on CJ Corp?

In this insight, we discuss how Warren Buffett's recent investment in Ulta Beauty is likely to have a positive impact on CJ Corp's valuation.

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive

There could be 39 migrations in March. Most of the Large to Mid migrations have been, or will be, deleted from a large global index. Along with...

Brian Freitas

Doosan Corp - NAV Valuation Analysis Amid Index Rebalance Expectations

Our NAV analysis of Doosan Corp suggests an implied market cap of 3.9 trillion won or implied price per share of 235,039 won which is 17.2% lower...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Indices: Overlap Between Global Passive Selling & Downward Migrations

There could be 37 migrations for the KOSPI Size indices in March, plus 1 LargeCap and 3 MidCap inclusions. The MidCap to LargeCap migrations have...

Brian Freitas

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2024

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

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