Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uol-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:142:1" rel="noopener">UOL Group (UOL SP)</a> has underperformed its Singapore peers and the drop in market cap could result in the stock being deleted from global passive portfolios in February.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uol-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:142:1" rel="noopener">UOL Group (UOL SP)</a> has traded higher since end October and there has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume on the stock since then.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uol-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:142:1" rel="noopener">UOL Group (UOL SP)</a> trades richer than its closest peer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/city-developments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:57:1" rel="noopener">City Developments (CIT SP)</a>, on EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA. The recent outperformance presents a trading opportunity.</li>
</ul>



UOL Group (UOL SP) has underperformed its Singapore peers and the drop in market cap could result in the stock being deleted from global passive portfolios in February.

UOL Group (UOL SP) has traded higher since end October and there has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume on the stock since then.

UOL Group (UOL SP) trades richer than its closest peer, City Developments (CIT SP), on EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA. The recent outperformance presents a trading opportunity.


UOL Group (UOL SP): At Risk of Passive Selling in February

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Temasek raised around US$300m via its secondary selldown in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a> in Jun 2023. The lockup from that placement will expire soon.</li>
<li>Temasek still owns over 50% of SIA and hence, any selldown might not come before SIA reports its 1H23/24 results in mid-Nov 2023.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the placement lockup dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Temasek raised around US$300m via its secondary selldown in Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) in Jun 2023. The lockup from that placement will expire soon.
Temasek still owns over 50% of SIA and hence, any selldown might not come before SIA reports its 1H23/24 results in mid-Nov 2023.
In this note, we talk about the placement lockup dynamics.


SIA Placement Lockup - Time for Another Trim of Its US$7bn Stake

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The Ong directors tried every trick in the book to derail the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hwa-hong-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6648:1" rel="noopener">Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP)</a> offer. The trump card was hiring Evercore to attract competing offers by 25 July.</li>
<li>The Board confirmed today that there are no competing offers. This is a catalyst for shareholders sitting on the fence to accept the S$0.40 per share offer.</li>
<li>The offer closes on 1 August. While meeting the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition will be a close-run, we think it will be met. The gross spread is 5.3%.     </li>
</ul>


The Ong directors tried every trick in the book to derail the Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP) offer. The trump card was hiring Evercore to attract competing offers by 25 July.
The Board confirmed today that there are no competing offers. This is a catalyst for shareholders sitting on the fence to accept the S$0.40 per share offer.
The offer closes on 1 August. While meeting the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition will be a close-run, we think it will be met. The gross spread is 5.3%.     


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>As a result of market acquisitions, the Offeror for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hwa-hong-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6648:1" rel="noopener">Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP)</a></strong> now holds 30.0%, triggering a mandatory general offer (MGO). </li>
<li>Including shares tendered, the Offeror controls 38.24%. The Offer remains subject to a 50% acceptance condition. HWAH directors holding 29.26% of shares still do not intend to accept the Offer. </li>
<li>The S$0.40/share Offer price has been declared final. The final closing date is 1 August. This transaction will go down to the wire.</li>
</ul>


As a result of market acquisitions, the Offeror for Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP) now holds 30.0%, triggering a mandatory general offer (MGO). 
Including shares tendered, the Offeror controls 38.24%. The Offer remains subject to a 50% acceptance condition. HWAH directors holding 29.26% of shares still do not intend to accept the Offer. 
The S$0.40/share Offer price has been declared final. The final closing date is 1 August. This transaction will go down to the wire.


Hwa Hong (HWAH SP): MGO Triggered, Offeror Now Controls 38.2%

<ul>
<li>The Circular, containing the IFA opinion and the directors' recommendation, was despatched after close yesterday. The IFA says fair and the directors recommend shareholders accept the Offer.</li>
<li>However ... directors holding 29.26% of shares out <strong>do not</strong> intend to accept the Offer. The intention of an additional 10.9% held by Ong family members is not known.</li>
<li>No word on Hong Leong Investment as to their 5.1% stake. The IFA notes the revised Offer terms are a 20.8% discount to the revalued NAV of S$0.5052/share</li>
</ul>


The Circular, containing the IFA opinion and the directors' recommendation, was despatched after close yesterday. The IFA says fair and the directors recommend shareholders accept the Offer.
However ... directors holding 29.26% of shares out do not intend to accept the Offer. The intention of an additional 10.9% held by Ong family members is not known.
No word on Hong Leong Investment as to their 5.1% stake. The IFA notes the revised Offer terms are a 20.8% discount to the revalued NAV of S$0.5052/share


Hwa Hong (HWAH SP): Directors Recommend Offer. But Not Really ...

Singapore

City Developments Limited is a property developer and owner. The Company, through its subsidiaries, are principally engaged in the investment of properties and shares, property management, project management and the provision of consultancy services, hospitality-related information technology, and procurement services. City Developments has a global presence.

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City Developments (CIT SP)

UOL Group (UOL SP): At Risk of Passive Selling in February

UOL Group could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February and trackers will need to sell 16x ADV. UOL Group has outperformed City Dev...

Brian Freitas

SIA Placement Lockup - Time for Another Trim of Its US$7bn Stake

Temasek raised around US$300m via its secondary selldown in Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) in Jun 2023. The lockup from that placement will expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Hwa Hong Confirms No Competing Offers

It will be close but we think the offer meets the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition. The offer lapses at 5:30 pm on 1 August. At the last close,...

Arun George

Hwa Hong (HWAH SP): MGO Triggered, Offeror Now Controls 38.2%

Currently trading at terms. This remains a hostile Offer. I still think this Offer will (just) fail to meet the 50% acceptance condition. This is...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

UOL Group (UOL SP): At Risk of Passive Selling in February

UOL Group could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February and trackers will need to sell 16x ADV. UOL Group has outperformed City Dev...

Brian Freitas

SIA Placement Lockup - Time for Another Trim of Its US$7bn Stake

Temasek raised around US$300m via its secondary selldown in Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) in Jun 2023. The lockup from that placement will expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Hwa Hong Confirms No Competing Offers

It will be close but we think the offer meets the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition. The offer lapses at 5:30 pm on 1 August. At the last close,...

Arun George

Hwa Hong (HWAH SP): MGO Triggered, Offeror Now Controls 38.2%

Currently trading at terms. This remains a hostile Offer. I still think this Offer will (just) fail to meet the 50% acceptance condition. This is...

David Blennerhassett

Hwa Hong (HWAH SP): Directors Recommend Offer. But Not Really ...

This remains a hostile Offer. I can still see this Offer failing to meet the 50% acceptance condition. This is an avoid, unless the spread were to...

David Blennerhassett