Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*DOJ Going Overboard:The US Department of Justice (DOJ) has begun investigating Visa (V.US) [Visa] over anticompetitive practices again. This time for alleged restrictions of merchants from routing in-store and online debit-card transactions through less expensive card networks, which is in contravention to the 2010 Durbin Amendment; and*Here Is Where We Think The DOJ Is Wrong: With Visa’s termination of its upstart Plaid acquisition, Visa’s alleged attempt to monopolize the online debit business has already been thwarted. Further, the combination of mix shift toward covered transactions coupled with declining yields has acted as a headwind for Visa's debit interchange fees. That Mastercard (MA.US) has convinced numerous US banks to switch their debit-card portfolios away from Visa evidences competitive pricing pressures. Lastly, there may actually be precedence for Visa’s stance given the recent outcome of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) v. Qualcomm (QCOM.US) case.

*DOJ Going Overboard:The US Department of Justice (DOJ) has begun investigating Visa (V.US) [Visa] over anticompetitive practices again. This time for alleged restrictions of merchants from routing in-store and online debit-card transactions through less expensive card networks, which is in contravention to the 2010 Durbin Amendment; and*Here Is Where We Think The DOJ Is Wrong: With Visa’s termination of its upstart Plaid acquisition, Visa’s alleged attempt to monopolize the online debit business has already been thwarted. Further, the combination of mix shift toward covered transactions coupled with declining yields has acted as a headwind for Visa's debit interchange fees. That Mastercard (MA.US) has convinced numerous US banks to switch their debit-card portfolios away from Visa evidences competitive pricing pressures. Lastly, there may actually be precedence for Visa’s stance given the recent outcome of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) v. Qualcomm (QCOM.US) case.

Visa Inc – Noise Creates Buying Opportunity

*Gross Operating Revenues Do NOT Cover Recurring Costs At HSBCNA: HSBC Holdings plc’s (HSBC) [5.HK/HSBA.LN] US subsidiary, HSBC North America (US only) [HSBCNA], reported yet another troubling set of results for 4Q20, losing USD 152.6 mn – down USD 312.6 mn (195.4%) on a linked quarter basis. Excluding non-recurring items, core operating income declined USD 313.6 mn (230.1%) for a loss of USD 177.3 mn over the same period. As it stands again, HSBCNA’s operating costs exceed recurring revenues; *HSBCNA Is Evolving Into An Indian State Bank: Given the credit weakness, we find that NPL/TL and problem assets/TL ratios significantly worsened 92 bp and 160 bp linked quarter, respectively, to 2.82% and 5.01%. By our calculation, we note that net new problem loan growth is a scary USD 867.9 mn  - for an annualized rate of growth of 155.4% - in line with the Indian state banks. By our calculation, HSBCNA’s reserves are light by USD 3.8 bn or 17.6% of HSBCNA’s stated equity. We would have compared the reserve shortfall to PBT, but HSBCNA simply loses money on an operating basis; and*HSBCNA Should Be Dumped At Any Price: HSBCNA is a chronic mess, and there is absolutely no need for HSBC to maintain a full commercial/retail banking presence in the US. It cannot earn a positive return under its current structure; credit is again about to fall off a cliff; does not earning; NIMs are among the lowest in the USA; and capital is shortly about to fall below regulatory guidance. Further, the bad acquisitions and regulatory headaches should spur management to cut and run in the US. We look forward to Group results on February 23rd, and the clarity we will receive on its hot mess in the US.

*Gross Operating Revenues Do NOT Cover Recurring Costs At HSBCNA: HSBC Holdings plc’s (HSBC) [5.HK/HSBA.LN] US subsidiary, HSBC North America (US only) [HSBCNA], reported yet another troubling set of results for 4Q20, losing USD 152.6 mn – down USD 312.6 mn (195.4%) on a linked quarter basis. Excluding non-recurring items, core operating income declined USD 313.6 mn (230.1%) for a loss of USD 177.3 mn over the same period. As it stands again, HSBCNA’s operating costs exceed recurring revenues; *HSBCNA Is Evolving Into An Indian State Bank: Given the credit weakness, we find that NPL/TL and problem assets/TL ratios significantly worsened 92 bp and 160 bp linked quarter, respectively, to 2.82% and 5.01%. By our calculation, we note that net new problem loan growth is a scary USD 867.9 mn  - for an annualized rate of growth of 155.4% - in line with the Indian state banks. By our calculation, HSBCNA’s reserves are light by USD 3.8 bn or 17.6% of HSBCNA’s stated equity. We would have compared the reserve shortfall to PBT, but HSBCNA simply loses money on an operating basis; and*HSBCNA Should Be Dumped At Any Price: HSBCNA is a chronic mess, and there is absolutely no need for HSBC to maintain a full commercial/retail banking presence in the US. It cannot earn a positive return under its current structure; credit is again about to fall off a cliff; does not earning; NIMs are among the lowest in the USA; and capital is shortly about to fall below regulatory guidance. Further, the bad acquisitions and regulatory headaches should spur management to cut and run in the US. We look forward to Group results on February 23rd, and the clarity we will receive on its hot mess in the US.     

HSBC Holdings Plc –American Result Intimates Group Miss

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr) / Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr)

We all know that credit costs are down, and we believe this can continue. What may surprise though is how much provision expenses SMFG has taken compared with its far lower increase in reported loan loss reserves.

We all know that credit costs are down, and we believe this can continue. What may surprise though is how much provision expenses SMFG has taken compared with its far lower increase in reported loan loss reserves. 

*Results Ahead Of Consensus: Bank of America (BAC.US) [BAC] reported 4Q20 bottom-line results of USD 5.2 bn, increasing USD 768 mn (17.3%) linked quarter. Results were driven by two factors: a) a USD 1.3 bn reduction in loss provision, tracking the overall improvement in net new NPLs; and b) a USD 474 mn (3.3%) decline in costs attributed to the 55.4% reduction in other operating expenses;*BAC Still Needs To Focus On Credit Quality: BAC’s NPLs increased USD 386 mn (8.2%) linked quarter and represent 55 bp of total loans – up 5 bp linked quarter due to both the NPL increase and the 2.9% contraction in loans outstanding. Although the NPL ratio is generally low, we are concerned with both the 30-89 days past due and commercial receivable criticisms which both increased; and*Buyback Will Be Attempted:BAC’s Standardized CET1 remained roughly unchanged linked quarter at 11.9%, and is 140 bp above BAC's capital requirement target.This should allow BAC to execute a share buyback of USD 3.2 bn in 1Q21 – USD 2.9 bn under the income test plus USD 300 mn to offset employee issuance.

*Results Ahead Of Consensus: Bank of America (BAC.US) [BAC] reported 4Q20 bottom-line results of USD 5.2 bn, increasing USD 768 mn (17.3%) linked quarter. Results were driven by two factors: a) a USD 1.3 bn reduction in loss provision, tracking the overall improvement in net new NPLs; and b) a USD 474 mn (3.3%) decline in costs attributed to the 55.4% reduction in other operating expenses;*BAC Still Needs To Focus On Credit Quality: BAC’s NPLs increased USD 386 mn (8.2%) linked quarter and represent 55 bp of total loans – up 5 bp linked quarter due to both the NPL increase and the 2.9% contraction in loans outstanding. Although the NPL ratio is generally low, we are concerned with both the 30-89 days past due and commercial receivable criticisms which both increased; and*Buyback Will Be Attempted:BAC’s Standardized CET1 remained roughly unchanged linked quarter at 11.9%, and is 140 bp above BAC's capital requirement target.This should allow BAC to execute a share buyback of USD 3.2 bn in 1Q21 – USD 2.9 bn under the income test plus USD 300 mn to offset employee issuance. 

Bank of America – Driven Entirely By Credit

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It should be no surprise that US banks’ credit costs have turned to reversals. This is the case for the largest banks reporting, even if not for all the community or regional banks. What may surprise though is that despite this, credit costs for FY20 remain exceptionally high compared with recent years. This suggests that credit costs can remain low during FY21.

It should be no surprise that US banks’ credit costs have turned to reversals. This is the case for the largest banks reporting, even if not for all the community or regional banks. What may surprise though is that despite this, credit costs for FY20 remain exceptionally high compared with recent years. This suggests that credit costs can remain low during FY21. 

United States

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

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Citigroup Inc (C US)

Visa Inc – Noise Creates Buying Opportunity

VISA: The DOJ has again begun investigating Visa over anticompetitive practices due to alleged merchant restrictions to rout online debit-card...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC Holdings Plc –American Result Intimates Group Miss

HSBC HOLDINGS PLC: HSBCNA reported troubling results in 4Q20 - declining 195% linked quarter, as operating costs exceed recurring revenues. This...

Thomas J. Monaco

SMFG – High Claw Back Potential

SMFG has taken far more credit costs than its loan loss reserve rise, suggesting high write-offs and thereby, a high potential for reversals. It...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank of America – Driven Entirely By Credit

BANK OF AMERICA: BAC's 4Q20 bottom-line of USD 5.2 bn increased 17.3% driven by a USD 1.3 bn reduction in provisions. NPLs increased 8.2%, as did...

Thomas J. Monaco

US Banks – Crumbling Credit Costs

It should be no surprise that credit costs are in reversal for some. What may surprise though is that despite this, credit costs for FY20 remain...

Daniel Tabbush

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