Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Results Should Only Get Better: JP Morgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM.US) [JPM] reported 1Q21 bottom-line results of USD 13.9 bn, increasing USD 2.2 bn (18.4%) linked quarter. Results were essentially driven by two factors: a) revenue growth at the Corporate &amp; Investment Bank (CIB) of USD 3.3 bn (28.7%) due primarily to principal transactions which increased USD 3.0 bn (103%); and b) a reserve reversal of USD 4.2 bn – increasing USD 2.3 bn (120%) over 4Q20’s provision reversal. The strength of the bottom-line, should allow larger capital returns in 2Q21 predicated on the Federal Reserve Board’s (FRB) dividend payout ratio test; and*Credit Improvement: JPM’s net new NPLs linked quarter amounted to just USD 638 mn or a 22.2% increase on an annualized basis – which is incredibly good. Given the current risk profile of JPM’s loan portfolio that the company remains over-provided for and that we will continue to see loss provision reversals until loan growth returns in some meaningful way.

*Results Should Only Get Better: JP Morgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM.US) [JPM] reported 1Q21 bottom-line results of USD 13.9 bn, increasing USD 2.2 bn (18.4%) linked quarter. Results were essentially driven by two factors: a) revenue growth at the Corporate &amp; Investment Bank (CIB) of USD 3.3 bn (28.7%) due primarily to principal transactions which increased USD 3.0 bn (103%); and b) a reserve reversal of USD 4.2 bn – increasing USD 2.3 bn (120%) over 4Q20’s provision reversal. The strength of the bottom-line, should allow larger capital returns in 2Q21 predicated on the Federal Reserve Board’s (FRB) dividend payout ratio test; and*Credit Improvement: JPM’s net new NPLs linked quarter amounted to just USD 638 mn or a 22.2% increase on an annualized basis – which is incredibly good. Given the current risk profile of JPM’s loan portfolio that the company remains over-provided for and that we will continue to see loss provision reversals until loan growth returns in some meaningful way.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Across our active Global fund universe, Value managers have seen $41bn in outflows over the past 5-years, compared to $65bn of inflows in to Growth funds.With Value funds capturing some long awaited outperformance this year, we analyse the current holdings set up among the 63 active Value funds in our analysis.Overweights in EMEA persist against underweights in Asia and the Americas.  Financials, Materials and Industrials are the key overweights versus underweights in Information Technology.US Financials are the standout overweight, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citigroup-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:279:1" rel="noopener">Citigroup Inc (C US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-express-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:916:1" rel="noopener">American Express Co (AXP US)</a> the key positions.  The FAAMG group of stocks remain key underweight holdings, though <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a> is the most widely held of the group. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> is almost totally avoided and in Asia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> screen as 'Unloved' by global active Value managers.

Across our active Global fund universe, Value managers have seen $41bn in outflows over the past 5-years, compared to $65bn of inflows in to Growth funds.With Value funds capturing some long awaited outperformance this year, we analyse the current holdings set up among the 63 active Value funds in our analysis.Overweights in EMEA persist against underweights in Asia and the Americas.  Financials, Materials and Industrials are the key overweights versus underweights in Information Technology.US Financials are the standout overweight, with Citigroup Inc (C US) and American Express Co (AXP US) the key positions.  The FAAMG group of stocks remain key underweight holdings, though Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) is the most widely held of the group. Tesla Motors (TSLA US) is almost totally avoided and in Asia, Meituan (3690 HK) , JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) and Pinduoduo (PDD US) screen as 'Unloved' by global active Value managers.

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jpmorgan-chase-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:277:1" rel="noopener">JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co's (JPM US)</a> fortress foundation needs repair. Rather than a rock-solid balance sheet, JPM’s capital foundation needs to be strengthened to handle the leverage load. It has the lowest Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) amongst the largest US banks and its Tier 1 securities suffer, in part, due to this. It is time to lighten the leverage exposure and add a layer of capital. This creates an investment opportunity.As the pandemic-induced economic crisis unfolded last year, we noted that JPM Tier 1 securities were over-bought relative to the leverage exposure risk at the institution. Please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/49670/Bank%20Credit%20Weekly:%20US%20Capital%20Buffer%20Risk%20&amp;%20Q1%20Earnings%20Reports-%20JPMorgan%20Looks%20Slightly%20Overbought.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/uQHaQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Weekly: US Capital Buffer Risk &amp; Q1 Earnings Reports- JPMorgan Looks Slightly Overbought.</a>The Fed exemption of Treasury securities and deposits with the central bank from the SLR bought JPM time. Fast forward one year later to the expiration of these exemptions and, despite ample opportunity, JPMorgan did not issue Tier 1 securities until only two weeks ago when it brought a $25 par security. In additional to raising needed capital, the firm recently threatened to stop taking deposits. It may price itself out of the deposit market, temporarily, but this is not a long-term strategy. The SLR is the binding capital constrain on the firm’s asset growth. JPM needs to obtain or retain more Tier 1 capital. We quantify this within.We believe that JPM could easily bring a 10-year Tier 1 bond to the market and find between US$2 to US$3bn in demand, thereby taking the total Tier 1 financing needs, or balance sheet optimization equivalent, down materially for the remainder of the year. Based on its recently issued Preferred, we believe JPM could achieve a price of Treasuries plus circa 300bps in a 10-year Tier 1 note.Aside from its SLR level, JPMorgan’s credit metrics are on-par with, if not superior to, most other large systemically important financial institutions. And yet, as we present within, JPM’s Tier 1 bonds trade at a discount to materially weaker banks located outside the US. Furthermore, we find that JPMorgan’s 2025 callable Tier 1 bond is at least 40bps oversold as, in our view, its call option is overvalued by the same amount.JPM faces an inflection point with respect to its capital adequacy. Concurrently, the Fed may re-adjust the SLR requirements before year-end; however, we believe it would be foolish of JPM not to take the opportunity to increase its SLR in an improving economic environment. It should re-enforce the foundation of its fortress balance sheet. We believe investors should pre-position for this eventuality. We recommend overweighting JPMorgan’s Tier 1 securities.

JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co's (JPM US) fortress foundation needs repair. Rather than a rock-solid balance sheet, JPM’s capital foundation needs to be strengthened to handle the leverage load. It has the lowest Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) amongst the largest US banks and its Tier 1 securities suffer, in part, due to this. It is time to lighten the leverage exposure and add a layer of capital. This creates an investment opportunity.As the pandemic-induced economic crisis unfolded last year, we noted that JPM Tier 1 securities were over-bought relative to the leverage exposure risk at the institution. Please see: Bank Credit Weekly: US Capital Buffer Risk &amp; Q1 Earnings Reports- JPMorgan Looks Slightly Overbought.The Fed exemption of Treasury securities and deposits with the central bank from the SLR bought JPM time. Fast forward one year later to the expiration of these exemptions and, despite ample opportunity, JPMorgan did not issue Tier 1 securities until only two weeks ago when it brought a $25 par security. In additional to raising needed capital, the firm recently threatened to stop taking deposits. It may price itself out of the deposit market, temporarily, but this is not a long-term strategy. The SLR is the binding capital constrain on the firm’s asset growth. JPM needs to obtain or retain more Tier 1 capital. We quantify this within.We believe that JPM could easily bring a 10-year Tier 1 bond to the market and find between US$2 to US$3bn in demand, thereby taking the total Tier 1 financing needs, or balance sheet optimization equivalent, down materially for the remainder of the year. Based on its recently issued Preferred, we believe JPM could achieve a price of Treasuries plus circa 300bps in a 10-year Tier 1 note.Aside from its SLR level, JPMorgan’s credit metrics are on-par with, if not superior to, most other large systemically important financial institutions. And yet, as we present within, JPM’s Tier 1 bonds trade at a discount to materially weaker banks located outside the US. Furthermore, we find that JPMorgan’s 2025 callable Tier 1 bond is at least 40bps oversold as, in our view, its call option is overvalued by the same amount.JPM faces an inflection point with respect to its capital adequacy. Concurrently, the Fed may re-adjust the SLR requirements before year-end; however, we believe it would be foolish of JPM not to take the opportunity to increase its SLR in an improving economic environment. It should re-enforce the foundation of its fortress balance sheet. We believe investors should pre-position for this eventuality. We recommend overweighting JPMorgan’s Tier 1 securities.

US Banks and the SLR Situation: Overweight JPM Tier 1 Securities

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Dividend yields for the S&amp;P 500 are 1.5%; the only time they were lower in the past 150 years was in 2000 (1% before the "dot-com crash" of 2000). We expect the S&amp;P 500 earnings yield to rebound from its low of 2.5% through a combination of stronger EPS growth and falling stock prices. The 14% of GDP fiscal stimulus will strengthen the recovery; already the end of the SLR-relaxation amounts to a slight tightening of monetary conditions from April 2021. The pledge of US$120 billion of monthly bond purchases will need to be relaxed after May 2021, and further tightening is likely at the FOMC meeting at the end of June, via either a 12.5bp rise in Fed Funds rate or an increase in the 0.1% interest rate paid on banks' reserves. The US$ will strengthen.Over the past 3 months (starting 27 December 2020), the US has legislated an aggregate fiscal stimulus of US$2.8 trillion (14% of GDP), of which the first part (US$0.9 trillion) has been almost entirely disbursed in the current quarter. Unsurprisingly, FOMC members expect US real GDP to rebound to a spectacular 6.5% growth in 2021. The unemployment rate has already declined to 6.2% in February 2021 (from 6.7% in Nov-Dec 2020, and 10.2% in July 2020); although much higher than February 2020 (3.5%), the current unemployment rate is not far above the traditional 5-6% rate considered the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), which is estimated to have fallen to 4-5% for the 2005-30 period. Given that jobs in the pandemic-hit hospitality sector are unlikely to come back for awhile, we estimate that NAIRU this year is close to 5%, a level of unemployment that is likely to be reached before 4Q 2021. Manufacturing is leading the US recovery: the ISM's manufacturing PMI was equal to a 3-year high (last exceeded 17 years ago) in February 2021 despite inclement weather. The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing outlook reached a 48-year high this month. Inflation is likely to edge up as unemployment declines toward the NAIRU, making it untenable for the Fed to keep to its pledge of buying US$120 billion of bonds monthly without countervailing actions to reduce the money-multiplier. The first such step removes the SLR relaxations from the beginning of next month. The second is likely to be an increase in the interest rate paid on banks' reserves (from their 0.1% current level) or an outright increase in the Fed Funds rate (to 0.25%) at the June FOMC meeting. We are bearish on risk assets (equities and EMs) over the next half year, and would recommend continuing to rotate away from technology stocks to cyclicals, consumer cyclicals and banks.

Dividend yields for the S&amp;P 500 are 1.5%; the only time they were lower in the past 150 years was in 2000 (1% before the "dot-com crash" of 2000). We expect the S&amp;P 500 earnings yield to rebound from its low of 2.5% through a combination of stronger EPS growth and falling stock prices. The 14% of GDP fiscal stimulus will strengthen the recovery; already the end of the SLR-relaxation amounts to a slight tightening of monetary conditions from April 2021. The pledge of US$120 billion of monthly bond purchases will need to be relaxed after May 2021, and further tightening is likely at the FOMC meeting at the end of June, via either a 12.5bp rise in Fed Funds rate or an increase in the 0.1% interest rate paid on banks' reserves. The US$ will strengthen.Over the past 3 months (starting 27 December 2020), the US has legislated an aggregate fiscal stimulus of US$2.8 trillion (14% of GDP), of which the first part (US$0.9 trillion) has been almost entirely disbursed in the current quarter. Unsurprisingly, FOMC members expect US real GDP to rebound to a spectacular 6.5% growth in 2021. The unemployment rate has already declined to 6.2% in February 2021 (from 6.7% in Nov-Dec 2020, and 10.2% in July 2020); although much higher than February 2020 (3.5%), the current unemployment rate is not far above the traditional 5-6% rate considered the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), which is estimated to have fallen to 4-5% for the 2005-30 period. Given that jobs in the pandemic-hit hospitality sector are unlikely to come back for awhile, we estimate that NAIRU this year is close to 5%, a level of unemployment that is likely to be reached before 4Q 2021. Manufacturing is leading the US recovery: the ISM's manufacturing PMI was equal to a 3-year high (last exceeded 17 years ago) in February 2021 despite inclement weather. The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing outlook reached a 48-year high this month. Inflation is likely to edge up as unemployment declines toward the NAIRU, making it untenable for the Fed to keep to its pledge of buying US$120 billion of bonds monthly without countervailing actions to reduce the money-multiplier. The first such step removes the SLR relaxations from the beginning of next month. The second is likely to be an increase in the interest rate paid on banks' reserves (from their 0.1% current level) or an outright increase in the Fed Funds rate (to 0.25%) at the June FOMC meeting. We are bearish on risk assets (equities and EMs) over the next half year, and would recommend continuing to rotate away from technology stocks to cyclicals, consumer cyclicals and banks. 

Biden's Huge Stimulus Is Obliging the Fed to Edge Away from Unlimited QE

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

US Financial stocks are a key holding for Global active managers.  Average weights stand at 6.38% among the 383 Global funds in our analysis, the 3rd largest global country/sector allocation.After a heavy sell of during the first few months of COVID-19, allocations bottomed out in August 2020 and turned sharply to the upside.  US Financials captured some of the largest ownership increases among global country/sector peers, moving from underweight to overweight in the process.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morgan-stanley" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1122:1" rel="noopener">Morgan Stanley (MS US)</a> has broken out to new highs in active fund ownership, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jpmorgan-chase-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:277:1" rel="noopener">JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM US)</a> is the most widely held Financial stock, whilst <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citigroup-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:279:1" rel="noopener">Citigroup Inc (C US)</a> exposure remains subdued.There are few signs of confidence levels abating or that managers are overly exposed to the sector, either on an absolute basis or relative to benchmark.  Therefore, we see it as low risk that managers will look to scale back exposure at this juncture.

US Financial stocks are a key holding for Global active managers.  Average weights stand at 6.38% among the 383 Global funds in our analysis, the 3rd largest global country/sector allocation.After a heavy sell of during the first few months of COVID-19, allocations bottomed out in August 2020 and turned sharply to the upside.  US Financials captured some of the largest ownership increases among global country/sector peers, moving from underweight to overweight in the process.Morgan Stanley (MS US) has broken out to new highs in active fund ownership, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM US) is the most widely held Financial stock, whilst Citigroup Inc (C US) exposure remains subdued.There are few signs of confidence levels abating or that managers are overly exposed to the sector, either on an absolute basis or relative to benchmark.  Therefore, we see it as low risk that managers will look to scale back exposure at this juncture.

United States

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

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Citigroup Inc (C US)

J.P Morgan Chase & Co. – Well On Track

JP MORGAN CHASE: JPM 1Q21 bottom-line results increased 18.4% linked quarter due to principal transactions and provision reversals. This should...

Thomas J. Monaco

Where Are Global Value Funds Positioned?

With Value funds capturing some long awaited outperformance this year, we analyse the current holdings set up among the active Global Value funds...

Steven Holden

US Banks and the SLR Situation: Overweight JPM Tier 1 Securities

JPM’s fortress foundation needs repair. It has the lowest SLR buffer, and its Tier 1 suffers from this. Leverage slimming and a deeper capital...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Biden's Huge Stimulus Is Obliging the Fed to Edge Away from Unlimited QE

The 14% of GDP stimulus will oblige the Fed to tighten policy by mid-year, strengthening the US$.S&P500 dividend yield (1.5%) has been lower only...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Financials: Back in Vogue

After a heavy sell of during the first few months of COVID-19, US Financials exposure bottomed out in August 2020 and turned sharply to the...

Steven Holden

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