Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:883:1" rel="noopener">Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a> reported strong Q2 2022 results, with revenue growth of 64% y/y, mainy driven by a 121% y/y increase in revenue from non-Thai patients.</li>
<li>Despite international patient volume is recovering, it is still lower than pre-COVID levels. Non-Thai patients contributed 66.2% of total revenue in Q2 2019, higher than 62.3% reported for Q2 2022.</li>
<li>Thailand targets 10 million foreign tourist arrivals this year, which should augur well for Bumrungrad.</li>
</ul>



Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) reported strong Q2 2022 results, with revenue growth of 64% y/y, mainy driven by a 121% y/y increase in revenue from non-Thai patients.
Despite international patient volume is recovering, it is still lower than pre-COVID levels. Non-Thai patients contributed 66.2% of total revenue in Q2 2019, higher than 62.3% reported for Q2 2022.
Thailand targets 10 million foreign tourist arrivals this year, which should augur well for Bumrungrad.


Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB): Flying High on Return of Medical Tourism

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> notes that discussions with KKR are ongoing, but the indicative proposal is held up by due diligence access to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-generale-de-sante" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21473:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Generale de Sante (GDS FP)</a>.</li>
<li>KKR proposed an alternative proposal that the Board rejected as “<em>meaningfully inferior.</em>” KKR remains interested, and its shenanigans are likely a move to nudge down the price.</li>
<li>At the last close, the risk/reward profile is favourable as the downside due to a deal break (-3% estimated decline) is lower than the upside (+20%) to the indicative proposal.</li>
</ul>



Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) notes that discussions with KKR are ongoing, but the indicative proposal is held up by due diligence access to Ramsay Generale de Sante (GDS FP).
KKR proposed an alternative proposal that the Board rejected as “meaningfully inferior.” KKR remains interested, and its shenanigans are likely a move to nudge down the price.
At the last close, the risk/reward profile is favourable as the downside due to a deal break (-3% estimated decline) is lower than the upside (+20%) to the indicative proposal.


Ramsay's Overdue Update on the KKR Proposal

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>We maintain our HOLD rating with a new TP of Bt3.70, down 5% from prior TP after roll over to 26.7xPE’23E (derived from its pre-pandemic levels).Despite, 2H22 earnings are expect</li>
<li>2H22 earnings to drop but still above pre-COVID We expect earnings trend continuing in downward trend in 2H22with revenue to drop HoH on the back of lower demand for COVID-19services</li>
<li>New projects in 2H22 and beyond   The company also plans to open two new hospitals (Shewarate and Chularat) in 2H22-1Q23 with a combined 150 beds or 19%of total bed </li>
</ul>


We maintain our HOLD rating with a new TP of Bt3.70, down 5% from prior TP after roll over to 26.7xPE’23E (derived from its pre-pandemic levels).Despite, 2H22 earnings are expect
2H22 earnings to drop but still above pre-COVID We expect earnings trend continuing in downward trend in 2H22with revenue to drop HoH on the back of lower demand for COVID-19services
New projects in 2H22 and beyond   The company also plans to open two new hospitals (Shewarate and Chularat) in 2H22-1Q23 with a combined 150 beds or 19%of total bed 


<ul>
<li>We keep our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt3.90, based on an unchanged 15xPE’22E. Although, 2022E earnings are expected to continue normalizing in 2H22</li>
<li>2Q22 earnings grew YoY but fell QoQ CHG’s 2Q22 earnings was at Bt878m, rose 52%YoY but declined 35%QoQ, which was 11% and 6% above our and market expectation, respectively.</li>
<li>Earnings trend to normalize in 2H22 We believe 2H22 earnings momentum will drop both YoY and HoH, given pandemic-related contribution fades off in the latter half of the year</li>
</ul>


We keep our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt3.90, based on an unchanged 15xPE’22E. Although, 2022E earnings are expected to continue normalizing in 2H22
2Q22 earnings grew YoY but fell QoQ CHG’s 2Q22 earnings was at Bt878m, rose 52%YoY but declined 35%QoQ, which was 11% and 6% above our and market expectation, respectively.
Earnings trend to normalize in 2H22 We believe 2H22 earnings momentum will drop both YoY and HoH, given pandemic-related contribution fades off in the latter half of the year


CHG : 2Q22 Earnings Grew YoY but Fell QoQ

<ul>
<li>We reaffirm our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt3.90, based on an unchanged 15xPE’22E. Despite, 22E earnings are expected to continue normalizing in 2H22</li>
<li>Weak QoQ anticipated in 2Q22 We forecast 2Q22E core profit to deliver at Bt781m, surge 36%YoY but drop 42%QoQ, based on the assumed gross margin contraction of 41.3%, down 0.5ppts</li>
<li>Earnings cycle poised to decelerate in 2H22 Looking ahead, we believe that 2H22 earnings momentum is poised to drop both YoY and HoH, following pandemic-related contribution fades off high base</li>
</ul>


We reaffirm our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt3.90, based on an unchanged 15xPE’22E. Despite, 22E earnings are expected to continue normalizing in 2H22
Weak QoQ anticipated in 2Q22 We forecast 2Q22E core profit to deliver at Bt781m, surge 36%YoY but drop 42%QoQ, based on the assumed gross margin contraction of 41.3%, down 0.5ppts
Earnings cycle poised to decelerate in 2H22 Looking ahead, we believe that 2H22 earnings momentum is poised to drop both YoY and HoH, following pandemic-related contribution fades off high base


Thailand

Chularat Hospital PCL owns medical centers and hospitals. The Company operates a variety of centers specializing in treatments such as hand surgery, open heart surgery, and strokes as well as providing emergency services and patient care. Chularat Hospital serves the medial industry throughout Thailand.

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Chularat Hospital (CHG TB)

Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB): Flying High on Return of Medical Tourism

With 50% revenue exposure to international patients, Bumrungrad should be the key beneficiary of resumption of medical tourism in Thailand and...

Tina Banerjee

Ramsay's Overdue Update on the KKR Proposal

KKR is interested but is looking to nudge the price down. A potential binding offer's risk/reward profile is favourable due to the limited downside...

Arun George

CHG : 2H22 Earnings Trend to Slow Down

We maintain our HOLD rating with a new TP of Bt3.70, down 5% from prior TP after roll over to 26.7xPE’23E (derived from its pre-pandemic levels)....

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CHG : 2Q22 Earnings Grew YoY but Fell QoQ

We keep our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt3.90, based on an unchanged 15xPE’22E. Although, 2022E earnings are expected to continue normalizing in 2H22...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CHG : 2Q22 Earnings to Fall QoQ

We reaffirm our HOLD rating with a TP of Bt3.90, based on an unchanged 15xPE’22E. Despite, 22E earnings are expected to continue normalizing in...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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