Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On November 22, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> received emergency regulatory approval for Xocova  in Japan for COVID-19. It is Japan’s first homegrown oral antiviral for SARS-CoV-2 infection.</li>
<li>On November 24, Shionogi has filed for manufacturing and sales approval of S-268019, a recombinant protein-based preventive vaccine, for use in priming and booster (third) doses, against COVID-19.</li>
<li>Although Shionogi continues to expect ¥110 billion revenue from COVID-19-related products in FY23, the company has raised overall revenue guidance to ¥410 billion from ¥400 billion.</li>
</ul>


On November 22, Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) received emergency regulatory approval for Xocova  in Japan for COVID-19. It is Japan’s first homegrown oral antiviral for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
On November 24, Shionogi has filed for manufacturing and sales approval of S-268019, a recombinant protein-based preventive vaccine, for use in priming and booster (third) doses, against COVID-19.
Although Shionogi continues to expect ¥110 billion revenue from COVID-19-related products in FY23, the company has raised overall revenue guidance to ¥410 billion from ¥400 billion.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Oral COVID-19 Drug Got Approval; Files Approval for COVID-19 Vaccine

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported 2QFY03/2023 results last week. Reported revenue increased 18.6% YoY to JPY1.0trn (vs consensus JPY962bn) while OP increased 7.2% YoY to JPY104.4bn (vs consensus JPY119bn).</li>
<li>Growth in sales was driven by Takeda’s blockbuster drug Entyvio (+36.6% YoY), Takhzyro (+75.8%) and immunoglobulin products (HYQVIA in particular).</li>
<li>The company also has raised its peak sales estimate for Entyvio to US$7.5-9.0bn (from US$5.5-6.5bn) driven by further market growth and market share expansion.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported 2QFY03/2023 results last week. Reported revenue increased 18.6% YoY to JPY1.0trn (vs consensus JPY962bn) while OP increased 7.2% YoY to JPY104.4bn (vs consensus JPY119bn).
Growth in sales was driven by Takeda’s blockbuster drug Entyvio (+36.6% YoY), Takhzyro (+75.8%) and immunoglobulin products (HYQVIA in particular).
The company also has raised its peak sales estimate for Entyvio to US$7.5-9.0bn (from US$5.5-6.5bn) driven by further market growth and market share expansion.


Takeda: Thrilling Journey Ahead with a Dengue Vaccine Launch and New Approvals

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaken-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18819:1" rel="noopener">Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP)</a> is reporting declining revenue from its three largest selling products, due to NHI price revision. These products together contribute more than 60% of total revenue.</li>
<li>The company’s newly launched products are growing at a rapid pace. However, the fastest growing product Ecclock contribute just 2% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Kaken guided for just 1% y/y revenue growth and 12% y/y decline in operating profit in FY23. Due to pipeline expansion, R&amp;D expenses are likely to remain elevated.</li>
</ul>



Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) is reporting declining revenue from its three largest selling products, due to NHI price revision. These products together contribute more than 60% of total revenue.
The company’s newly launched products are growing at a rapid pace. However, the fastest growing product Ecclock contribute just 2% of total revenue.
Kaken guided for just 1% y/y revenue growth and 12% y/y decline in operating profit in FY23. Due to pipeline expansion, R&amp;D expenses are likely to remain elevated.


Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Falling Revenue of Top-Selling Drugs Limit Near-Term Growth Prospect

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>  reported 1QFY03/23 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 2.4% YoY to JPY972.5bn (vs consensus JPY929.6bn) while OP decreased 39.4% YoY to JPY150.5bn (vs consensus JPY173.1bn).</li>
<li>Decline in OP was due to one-time gain from the sale of Japan diabetes portfolio of JPY131.4bn in 1Q last year, however, excluding this, OP increased 28.4% YoY in 1QFY03/2023.</li>
<li>Takeda’s share price dropped 1.5% at the end of today’s trading as investor sentiment has changed post earnings as some of the company’s key drugs have started experiencing generic erosion.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)  reported 1QFY03/23 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 2.4% YoY to JPY972.5bn (vs consensus JPY929.6bn) while OP decreased 39.4% YoY to JPY150.5bn (vs consensus JPY173.1bn).
Decline in OP was due to one-time gain from the sale of Japan diabetes portfolio of JPY131.4bn in 1Q last year, however, excluding this, OP increased 28.4% YoY in 1QFY03/2023.
Takeda’s share price dropped 1.5% at the end of today’s trading as investor sentiment has changed post earnings as some of the company’s key drugs have started experiencing generic erosion.


Takeda 1Q: Top Line Beat Consensus – Development Pipeline Continues to Progress

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> has raised revenue guidance for H1FY23 by 6%, due to continued strong performance of its four global brands, which contribute more than 35% of total revenue.</li>
<li>However, the company has cut operating and net profit guidance for H1FY23, mainly due to one-off charge related to elimination of unrealized gains on inventories caused by yen depreciation.</li>
<li>Otsuka received positive CHMP opinion for lupus nephritis drug, Lupkynis. This will pave the way for gaining marketing approval of the drug in Europe.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) has raised revenue guidance for H1FY23 by 6%, due to continued strong performance of its four global brands, which contribute more than 35% of total revenue.
However, the company has cut operating and net profit guidance for H1FY23, mainly due to one-off charge related to elimination of unrealized gains on inventories caused by yen depreciation.
Otsuka received positive CHMP opinion for lupus nephritis drug, Lupkynis. This will pave the way for gaining marketing approval of the drug in Europe.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Revenue Guidance Raise and New Products Line-Up Enhance Conviction

Japan

Chugai Pharmaceutical Company Ltd., manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals in the domestic and international markets through its subsidiaries. The Company develops drugs in the fields of cancer, infectious diseases, bone, blood, and circulatory systems. Chugai Pharmaceutical also conducts research studies on drugs with private and public medical research institutions.

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Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Oral COVID-19 Drug Got Approval; Files Approval for COVID-19 Vaccine

Shionogi got approval for oral COVID drug and is seeking approval for COVID-19 vaccine in Japan. The company expects ¥110 billion revenue (~27% of...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda: Thrilling Journey Ahead with a Dengue Vaccine Launch and New Approvals

After more-than a decade research, Takeda is all-set to launch its dengue vaccine which will be the industry’s first immunisation against Dengue...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Falling Revenue of Top-Selling Drugs Limit Near-Term Growth Prospect

Kaken’s top selling drugs are reporting declining revenue. Fast growing new product contribute just 2% of revenue and is yet to gather momentum to...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda 1Q: Top Line Beat Consensus – Development Pipeline Continues to Progress

Takeda's reported revenue for 1QFY03/23 grew 2.4% YoY and beat consensus by a huge 46% while OP fell below consensus. Takeda continues to push...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Revenue Guidance Raise and New Products Line-Up Enhance Conviction

Otsuka has raised H1FY23 revenue guidance. However, profits will be negatively impacted by one-off charges. Guidance raise and new product line-up...

Tina Banerjee

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