Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).</li>
<li>The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.</li>
<li>Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish</li>
</ul>


Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).
The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.
Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish


Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

<ul>
<li>We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.</li>
<li>Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields </li>
<li>Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI</li>
</ul>


We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI


U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Fitch's U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes.</li>
<li>We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415).</li>
<li>Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on the $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM.</li>
</ul>


Fitch's U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes.
We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415).
Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on the $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM.


Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Chubb had a mixed start to 2023 and delivered a mixed result with revenues above Wall Street expectations.</li><li>However, it failed to meet earnings expectations of analysts despite managing a double-digit operating earnings growth.</li><li>Life Insurance premium revenue and Life earnings doubled.</li></ul>

Chubb had a mixed start to 2023 and delivered a mixed result with revenues above Wall Street expectations.However, it failed to meet earnings expectations of analysts despite managing a double-digit operating earnings growth.Life Insurance premium revenue and Life earnings doubled.

Chubb Limited: A True Leader In Leader in P&C and Life Insurance Business – Key Drivers

<ul><li>This is our first report on insurance major, Chubb.</li><li>The company had an excellent quarter given the enormous underwriting outcomes and it delivered an all-around beat.</li><li>During the quarter, Chubb continued to accelerate the turnover of its portfolio in a targeted manner.</li></ul>

This is our first report on insurance major, Chubb.The company had an excellent quarter given the enormous underwriting outcomes and it delivered an all-around beat.During the quarter, Chubb continued to accelerate the turnover of its portfolio in a targeted manner.

Chubb Limited: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion In China & Other Drivers

United States

Chubb Limited operates as a property and casualty insurance company. The Company provides commercial and personal property, casualty, and personal accident and supplemental health insurance, reinsurance, and life insurance to a diverse group of clients.

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Chubb (CB US)

Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

Upgrading Real Estate $XLRE $VNQ and Transportation $IYT $XTN to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals as $SPX, $COMP Take a Pause;...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar $DXY and Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

Upgrading Financials $XLF to Market Weight; The Shift to Value Continues. Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the $SPX,...

Vermilion Research

Chubb Limited: A True Leader In Leader in P&C and Life Insurance Business – Key Drivers

Chubb had a mixed start to 2023 and delivered a mixed result with revenues above Wall Street expectations. However, it failed to meet earnings...

Baptista Research

Chubb Limited: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion In China & Other Drivers

This is our first report on insurance major, Chubb. The company had an excellent quarter given the enormous underwriting outcomes and it delivered...

Baptista Research

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