New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We downgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL.</li><li>SPK's incremental connection share is ~-3% points below its current share, its ARPUs are already ahead of One NZ's, its recent price changes have been mixed and it under-indexes in the growing MVNO market.</li><li>While SPK may benefit from a cyclical recovery in some IT services, the endgame for this segment is unclear.</li></ul>

We downgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL.SPK's incremental connection share is ~-3% points below its current share, its ARPUs are already ahead of One NZ's, its recent price changes have been mixed and it under-indexes in the growing MVNO market.While SPK may benefit from a cyclical recovery in some IT services, the endgame for this segment is unclear.

Spark NZ Low Signal—Down To UNDERPERFORM

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Chorus (CNU) reported an in-line operational 1H23 result but with a meaningful miss on the bottom line. The miss was driven by accelerated depreciation of copper assets and higher interest expense.</li><li>On the positive side, price inflation is coming through faster than expected; for the first time in six years fibre revenue growth more than offset the copper decline.</li><li>We think CNU is a solid long term holding with low operational downside risk. However, we believe valuation is stretched, even factoring in a likely meaningful uplift in regulatory WACC in 2025. </li></ul>

Chorus (CNU) reported an in-line operational 1H23 result but with a meaningful miss on the bottom line. The miss was driven by accelerated depreciation of copper assets and higher interest expense.On the positive side, price inflation is coming through faster than expected; for the first time in six years fibre revenue growth more than offset the copper decline.We think CNU is a solid long term holding with low operational downside risk. However, we believe valuation is stretched, even factoring in a likely meaningful uplift in regulatory WACC in 2025. 

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptb-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19198:1" rel="noopener">PTB Group Ltd (PTB AU)</a>'s scheme meeting is on 16 November. The IE considers the offer of A$1.595 + dividend up to A$0.03 per share (total of A$1.625) fair.  </li>
<li>The key condition is approval from shareholders - headcount test and approval by at least 75% of the votes cast on the resolution. The two largest shareholders will vote YES.</li>
<li>We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 9 December payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 13.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



PTB Group Ltd (PTB AU)'s scheme meeting is on 16 November. The IE considers the offer of A$1.595 + dividend up to A$0.03 per share (total of A$1.625) fair.  
The key condition is approval from shareholders - headcount test and approval by at least 75% of the votes cast on the resolution. The two largest shareholders will vote YES.
We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 9 December payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 13.8%, respectively.


Canada

Chorus Aviation, Inc. operates a regional airline.  The Company offers scheduled air passenger services on behalf of Air Canada to destinations in Canada and the United States.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Chorus Aviation (CHR CN)

Spark NZ Low Signal—Down To UNDERPERFORM

We downgrade Spark NZ (SPK) to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL. SPK's incremental connection share is ~-3% points below its current share...

Forsyth Barr

Chorus: 1H23 Result — Reality Check

Chorus (CNU) reported an in-line operational 1H23 result but with a meaningful miss on the bottom line: the miss was driven by accelerated...

Forsyth Barr

PTB Scheme Meeting on 16 November

This is a done deal but not a particularly liquid merger arb situation. At the last close price and for the 9 December payment, the annualised...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)