HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The rally of TCM companies has probably come to an end. But we think there would be good trading opportunities in 23Q4. Things could become challenging again in 24Q1.</li>
<li>If P/E is used when calculating the valuation of innovative pharmaceutical companies, unreasonable situations may arise. Sales profit rather than net profit could be a better choice for P/E.</li>
<li>Although iRay’s current P/E has fallen in reasonable range, due to concerns about its long-term growth prospects, valuation could further decline in long term. So, just short-term trade is recommended.</li>
</ul>


The rally of TCM companies has probably come to an end. But we think there would be good trading opportunities in 23Q4. Things could become challenging again in 24Q1.
If P/E is used when calculating the valuation of innovative pharmaceutical companies, unreasonable situations may arise. Sales profit rather than net profit could be a better choice for P/E.
Although iRay’s current P/E has fallen in reasonable range, due to concerns about its long-term growth prospects, valuation could further decline in long term. So, just short-term trade is recommended.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4) - TCM Rally Ends, P/E Ratio Becomes Ineffective, IRay Technology

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

Beijing Tongrentang Co A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2018 was a watershed for Tongrentang. After the incident of using expired honey was exposed and the corruption scandal afterwards, Tongrentang's performance declined significantly and didn’t recover until 2021.</li>
<li>Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver and also Tongrentang’s core product. Due to the economic downturn, the price increase of Angong Niuhuang Pills could lead to inventory overstocking.</li>
<li>The high growth in 2021 may not be sustained. We lowered our forecast for 2022. Without core competitiveness and high moat, we are conservative about Tongrentang’s long-term outlook.</li>
</ul>


2018 was a watershed for Tongrentang. After the incident of using expired honey was exposed and the corruption scandal afterwards, Tongrentang's performance declined significantly and didn’t recover until 2021.
Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver and also Tongrentang’s core product. Due to the economic downturn, the price increase of Angong Niuhuang Pills could lead to inventory overstocking.
The high growth in 2021 may not be sustained. We lowered our forecast for 2022. Without core competitiveness and high moat, we are conservative about Tongrentang’s long-term outlook.


Beijing Tongrentang (600085.CH)- Neither Brand Nor Angong Niuhuang Pills Can Secure Future Prospects

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

<ul>
<li>In terms of the business model,the uniqueness and scarcity of Pien Tze Huang keep the market demand at high level,supporting its strong ability to raise prices and establish high moat.</li>
<li>The concerns on single product risk, scare raw materials and inadequate production capacity would cast a shadow over the Company’ future development.</li>
<li>The breakthrough point lies in whether the Company can make use of the unique advantages generated from "Pien Tze Huang" series to cultivate a second strong growth point in time.</li>
</ul>


In terms of the business model,the uniqueness and scarcity of Pien Tze Huang keep the market demand at high level,supporting its strong ability to raise prices and establish high moat.
The concerns on single product risk, scare raw materials and inadequate production capacity would cast a shadow over the Company’ future development.
The breakthrough point lies in whether the Company can make use of the unique advantages generated from "Pien Tze Huang" series to cultivate a second strong growth point in time.


Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) - The Strength and the Concerns

<ul>
<li>The high price of EJiao discouraged consumers, leading to increasing inventory backlog in the distribution channel and reduction in payment collection, which finally resulted in Dong-E-E-Jiao’s net loss in 2019.</li>
<li>Although the performance has showed a recovery trend since 2020,concerns on raw material shortage, low inventory turnover, single product structure, high selling expense ratio and fierce market competition still remain.</li>
<li>There is still a long way to go for the Company to get back to peak, so we are conservative about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dong-e-e-jiaoco-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8470:1" rel="noopener">Dong E E Jiaoco Ltd A (000423 CH)</a>’s outlook.</li>
</ul>


The high price of EJiao discouraged consumers, leading to increasing inventory backlog in the distribution channel and reduction in payment collection, which finally resulted in Dong-E-E-Jiao’s net loss in 2019.
Although the performance has showed a recovery trend since 2020,concerns on raw material shortage, low inventory turnover, single product structure, high selling expense ratio and fierce market competition still remain.
There is still a long way to go for the Company to get back to peak, so we are conservative about Dong E E Jiaoco Ltd A (000423 CH)’s outlook.


Dong E E Jiao (000423.CH) - Could the New Chairman Turn Things Around?

China

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets medicines, healthcare products, medical packing products, and medical instruments.  The Company also imports and exports Chinese medicine materials and medical packing materials.

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A (600129 CH)

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Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A (600129 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4) - TCM Rally Ends, P/E Ratio Becomes Ineffective, IRay Technology

Rally of TCM sector has probably ended. Traditional P/E ratio becomes ineffective sometimes. iRay’s current valuation is comfortable for trades,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

We see 50 changes a side for the CSI500 in Dec. The Industrials sector could take a lot of index spots from Materials as one-way turnover exceeds...

Brian Freitas

Beijing Tongrentang (600085.CH)- Neither Brand Nor Angong Niuhuang Pills Can Secure Future Prospects

Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver. Due to economic downturn, its price hike will lead to inventory overstocking. Without high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) - The Strength and the Concerns

We analyzed the business model of Pien Tze Huang, which is mainly due to its uniqueness and scarcity that build high moat. But it still has to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Dong E E Jiao (000423.CH) - Could the New Chairman Turn Things Around?

The raw material (donkey skin) shortage is a big concern for Dong-E-E-Jiao's future development, together with low inventory turnover,fierce...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

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