Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Will Semiconductor   Shan / Technical Analysis

New developments suggest caution is warranted, and leads us to believe the mixed market environment is poised to continue. The new and concerning developments include widening high yield spreads in the U.S. and Europe and improving relative strength for defensive Sectors -- both are clear signs of risk aversion. At the same time, global indexes remain above critical support levels; until this changes our neutral outlook remains appropriate.

New developments suggest caution is warranted, and leads us to believe the mixed market environment is poised to continue. The new and concerning developments include widening high yield spreads in the U.S. and Europe and improving relative strength for defensive Sectors -- both are clear signs of risk aversion. At the same time, global indexes remain above critical support levels; until this changes our neutral outlook remains appropriate.

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprungli / Equity Bottom-Up

in Japan Lindt used to be just another premium chocolate brand sold in supermarkets and department stores until the Swiss firm decided to invest in a unique store and cafe chain. 10 years and 64 stores later, it shows no sign of slowing down.

in Japan Lindt used to be just another premium chocolate brand sold in supermarkets and department stores until the Swiss firm decided to invest in a unique store and cafe chain. 10 years and 64 stores later, it shows no sign of slowing down.

Lindt Japan Crowns Stellar Decade with New Flagship

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate).

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). 

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

Switzerland

Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprungli AG manufactures a broad range of chocolate and confectionery  products. The Company markets its products through its own specialty stores andboutiques, as well as through retail outlets and catalog sales. Lindt & Spruengli operates subsidiaries in Europe, North America and Asia and also sells its products through various distributors in other world region.

Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprungli (LISN SW)

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Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprungli (LISN SW)

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

With interest rates expected to move sideways to lower, we recommend a mix of growth and defensive Sectors. Today we focus on Services/Technology...

Vermilion Research

Lindt Japan Crowns Stellar Decade with New Flagship

Lindt continues to find growth in key export markets, particularly Japan where its retail-led strategy has paid huge dividends in brand awareness...

Michael Causton

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight, while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples,...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels,...

Vermilion Research

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