Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is little in the long-term and current figures of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> that leaves one assured of strength, stability, earnings power, and rather the opposite.</li>
<li>Sharply expanding LDR is an increase in loans relative to deposits, and it tends to drive rising NIM. Where LDR expands (a lot) but NIM contracts, it is a concern. </li>
<li>The bank appears to have a 2-3x higher base of credit costs/operating profit, with an ROE of 10% now vs 18% some years ago - with much more geopolitical risk. </li>
</ul>


There is little in the long-term and current figures of Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) that leaves one assured of strength, stability, earnings power, and rather the opposite.
Sharply expanding LDR is an increase in loans relative to deposits, and it tends to drive rising NIM. Where LDR expands (a lot) but NIM contracts, it is a concern. 
The bank appears to have a 2-3x higher base of credit costs/operating profit, with an ROE of 10% now vs 18% some years ago - with much more geopolitical risk. 


Bank of China - Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 125.4% as of Oct 6th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 8.1ppt week on week, led by health care, information technology, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Cm Bank, Postal Savings, Conch Cement, Beigene, Sinopec Corp.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 125.4% as of Oct 6th.
The average A-H premium changed by 8.1ppt week on week, led by health care, information technology, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Cm Bank, Postal Savings, Conch Cement, Beigene, Sinopec Corp.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 6th): CMB, Postal Savings, Conch Cement, Beigene, Sinopec

<ul>
<li>Fee income is down 33% in the most recent quarter which may have prompted the bank to realize gains up 63% in the period to preserve profit growth</li>
<li>Quality of earnings is not strong, with more than half of the bank's pre-tax income delta driven by realized and unrealized gains, with credit cost decline the other key driver</li>
<li>Loss NPLs are now 26% of total NPLs, from 11% a few year ago, suggesting worsening credit metrics. Declining credit costs seem at odds with economy, NPL distribution.</li>
</ul>


Fee income is down 33% in the most recent quarter which may have prompted the bank to realize gains up 63% in the period to preserve profit growth
Quality of earnings is not strong, with more than half of the bank's pre-tax income delta driven by realized and unrealized gains, with credit cost decline the other key driver
Loss NPLs are now 26% of total NPLs, from 11% a few year ago, suggesting worsening credit metrics. Declining credit costs seem at odds with economy, NPL distribution.


Bank of Jiangsu - Fees -33%, Gains +64% Credit Costs -19%, Does Not Suggest Quality Earnings

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Shanghai United Imaging Health / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the <em>next </em>largest 500 names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates show that the combined one-way flow for CSI 300 and CSI 500 could be around US$2.8bn.</li>
</ul>


CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in December 2023.
Our latest estimates show that the combined one-way flow for CSI 300 and CSI 500 could be around US$2.8bn.


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 23:  US$2.8bn One-Way; Might Be Time for a Basket Trade

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The changes at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI was implemented on the same day.</li>
<li>The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.</li>
<li>After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes at the Nikkei 225 September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI was implemented on the same day.
The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.
After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

China

China Zheshang Bank Co., Ltd. offers banking services. The Company provides deposits, loans, international settlement, wealth management, and other services. China Zheshang Bank also operates financial services.

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China Zheshang Bank (601916 CH)

Bank of China - Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

BOC has seen LDR expansion accompanied by narrowing NIM, raising questions on marginal lending. ROE is worsening dramatically, with credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 6th): CMB, Postal Savings, Conch Cement, Beigene, Sinopec

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Cm Bank, Postal Savings, Conch Cement, Beigene, Sinopec Corp.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bank of Jiangsu - Fees -33%, Gains +64% Credit Costs -19%, Does Not Suggest Quality Earnings

Dramatically lower fee income, far higher realized gains, and lower credit costs are driving net profit growth, and do not suggest a positive or...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 23: US$2.8bn One-Way; Might Be Time for a Basket Trade

The Names directly moving into CSI 300 and CSI 500 without previously being members of either of these indices could outperform the CSI 300 index...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bank of China - Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

BOC has seen LDR expansion accompanied by narrowing NIM, raising questions on marginal lending. ROE is worsening dramatically, with credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 6th): CMB, Postal Savings, Conch Cement, Beigene, Sinopec

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Cm Bank, Postal Savings, Conch Cement, Beigene, Sinopec Corp.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bank of Jiangsu - Fees -33%, Gains +64% Credit Costs -19%, Does Not Suggest Quality Earnings

Dramatically lower fee income, far higher realized gains, and lower credit costs are driving net profit growth, and do not suggest a positive or...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 23: US$2.8bn One-Way; Might Be Time for a Basket Trade

The Names directly moving into CSI 300 and CSI 500 without previously being members of either of these indices could outperform the CSI 300 index...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec 23: US$2.8bn One-Way; Might Be Time for a Basket Trade