Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, a Hong Kong broadband play, is never short on privatisation rumours. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> is reportedly (again) holding talks with HKBN's major shareholders. </li>
<li>China Mobile is a logical suitor. I highly doubt a non-PRC (government-affiliated) corporation would be permitted to take HKBN private.</li>
<li>Previous takeover rumours over the years came to nought. It may be different this time. HKBN was <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1119/2024111900127.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended this morning</a> pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
</li>
</ul>



HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), a Hong Kong broadband play, is never short on privatisation rumours. China Mobile (941 HK) is reportedly (again) holding talks with HKBN's major shareholders. 
China Mobile is a logical suitor. I highly doubt a non-PRC (government-affiliated) corporation would be permitted to take HKBN private.
Previous takeover rumours over the years came to nought. It may be different this time. HKBN was suspended this morning pursuant to the Takeovers Code.



HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Comes Knocking. Again.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Nearly 90% through the review period, we see 6 potential adds and 5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 5.07% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 3.97bn. Index arb activity could add to the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 17% over the last month and by 21% over the last two months.</li>
</ul>


Nearly 90% through the review period, we see 6 potential adds and 5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 5.07% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 3.97bn. Index arb activity could add to the impact on the stocks.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 17% over the last month and by 21% over the last two months.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: BIG Outperformance Over the Last Month

Equity Bottom-Up

China Unicom Hong Kong / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The rapid adoption of cloud computing has led to China boasting the world’s second-largest cloud computing market.</li>
<li>This migration to the cloud is in lock-step with global customer needs: scale, greater efficiency, and availability; together with a reduction in capex and infrastructure complexity.</li>
<li>The big three PRC telcos are firmly in the mix, with each announcing 100%+ growth in revenue for their cloud businesses in 1H22. Expect that trend to continue.</li>
</ul>


The rapid adoption of cloud computing has led to China boasting the world’s second-largest cloud computing market.
This migration to the cloud is in lock-step with global customer needs: scale, greater efficiency, and availability; together with a reduction in capex and infrastructure complexity.
The big three PRC telcos are firmly in the mix, with each announcing 100%+ growth in revenue for their cloud businesses in 1H22. Expect that trend to continue.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16063:1" rel="noopener">Seven Bank (8410 JP)</a> is obvious. It has been obvious. It is non-core. It's always been non-core. It was made  clear in previous Strategy announcements,</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a>'s premium to NAV is unjustified. However reversing the stub has not been going to plan of late, as the NAV premium continues to widen.</li>
<li>Mavcom HAS approved the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a> deal. But still welcomes public consultation. So, approved or not?</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) selling Seven Bank (8410 JP) is obvious. It has been obvious. It is non-core. It's always been non-core. It was made  clear in previous Strategy announcements,

PCCW Ltd (8 HK)'s premium to NAV is unjustified. However reversing the stub has not been going to plan of late, as the NAV premium continues to widen.
Mavcom HAS approved the Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) deal. But still welcomes public consultation. So, approved or not?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Seven Bank, PCCW, Malaysia Airports, I'rom Group

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> was trading at an unjustifiable premium to NAV at the time of my last report back in August. Now it's even more unjustifiable. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on PCCW/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a>, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



PCCW Ltd (8 HK) was trading at an unjustifiable premium to NAV at the time of my last report back in August. Now it's even more unjustifiable. 
Preceding my comments on PCCW/HKT Ltd (6823 HK), and Softbank Group (9984 JP)/ARM Holdings (ARM US), are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: PCCW's Questionable NAV Premium. Plus Softbank Vs. Arm

China

China United Network Communications Limited provides a variety of telecommunication services, including GSM and CDMA wireless telecommunication services, international and domestic long distance communication services, data communication and Internet services, as well as paging services.

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China United Network A (600050 CH)

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Comes Knocking. Again.

Shares are suspended - so there's nothing to be done right now. A rumoured HK$5/share is probably ok. A 16% premium to last close. But perhaps ~33%...

David Blennerhassett

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: BIG Outperformance Over the Last Month

There could be 5 changes for the SSE50 in June. Estimate one-way turnover is 5.07% and the one-way trade is CNY 3.97bn. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

China Telcos: Send In The Clouds

At 1x forward EV/EBITDA and a 5.6% yield, Unicom is cheap. I don't have a bone to pick with Mobile at 2.1x and a 7.9% yield; or Telecom - but...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Seven Bank, PCCW, Malaysia Airports, I'rom Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: PCCW's Questionable NAV Premium. Plus Softbank Vs. Arm

Valuation-wise, PCCW is trading full. I'd reverse the stub here, however this unjustifiable NAV premium has become even more unjustiifiable. Avoid....

David Blennerhassett

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