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Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>China’s local governments spent a record 1.23 trillion yuan ($174 billion) on bond interest payments last year, up nearly 10% from 2022, official data showed Tuesday.</li><li>Outstanding local government debt has also been steadily climbing over the past few years, reaching 40.74 trillion yuan by the end of 2023 — a 16% year-on-year increase, according to data published by the Ministry of Finance.</li><li>This amount included general bonds, whose proceeds are used to pay for nonprofit projects with no revenue, and special-purpose bonds, which raise funds mainly for infrastructure investment.</li></ul>

China’s local governments spent a record 1.23 trillion yuan ($174 billion) on bond interest payments last year, up nearly 10% from 2022, official data showed Tuesday.Outstanding local government debt has also been steadily climbing over the past few years, reaching 40.74 trillion yuan by the end of 2023 — a 16% year-on-year increase, according to data published by the Ministry of Finance.This amount included general bonds, whose proceeds are used to pay for nonprofit projects with no revenue, and special-purpose bonds, which raise funds mainly for infrastructure investment.

China’s Local Governments Paid Record $174 Billion in Bond Interest Last Year 

<ul><li>Stocks / Analysis: Will China’s relaxed share buyback rules help or hinder the market?</li><li>China-Nauru /: China and Nauru formally resume diplomatic relations</li><li>RRR /: China to cut banks’ reserve requirements amid flagging recovery</li></ul>

Stocks / Analysis: Will China’s relaxed share buyback rules help or hinder the market?China-Nauru /: China and Nauru formally resume diplomatic relationsRRR /: China to cut banks’ reserve requirements amid flagging recovery

CX Daily: Will China’s Relaxed Share Buyback Rules Help or Hinder the Market? 

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.</li><li>Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative terms</li><li>Instead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.</li></ul>

Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative termsInstead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

<ul><li>The property slump is expected have slightly less of an impact on China’s economy in 2024 than feared, while fiscal support will play a bigger role, Wang Tao, UBS’s chief China economist, said at a Tuesday seminar.</li><li>The year-on-year growth rate in 2024 will be lower than that in 2023, but the economy will continue to recover and stabilize with a growth rate of about 4.5%, Wang said.</li><li>The biggest drag on the economy from the property slump happened in 2022, the economist said.</li></ul>

The property slump is expected have slightly less of an impact on China’s economy in 2024 than feared, while fiscal support will play a bigger role, Wang Tao, UBS’s chief China economist, said at a Tuesday seminar.The year-on-year growth rate in 2024 will be lower than that in 2023, but the economy will continue to recover and stabilize with a growth rate of about 4.5%, Wang said.The biggest drag on the economy from the property slump happened in 2022, the economist said.

UBS Economist Expects Less Property Drag on China’s Economy in 2024 

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Beijing steps up property support; risks being shifted to banks, longer-term downsizing to continue</li><li>Support measures should help a broader recovery in domestic demand, but this may take time</li><li>Structural drags remain: we expect annual growth to fall below 5% in 2024 and 2025</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Beijing steps up property support; risks being shifted to banks, longer-term downsizing to continueSupport measures should help a broader recovery in domestic demand, but this may take timeStructural drags remain: we expect annual growth to fall below 5% in 2024 and 2025Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Outlook 2024 - Navigating Between Cyclical and Structural Headwinds

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China Treasury (CHINA GOVT)

China’s Local Governments Paid Record $174 Billion in Bond Interest Last Year

China’s local governments spent a record 1.23 trillion yuan ($174 billion) on bond interest payments last year, up nearly 10% from 2022, official...

Caixin Global

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

Last time around in our EM series (see here) we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the...

Steno Research

UBS Economist Expects Less Property Drag on China’s Economy in 2024

The property slump is expected have slightly less of an impact on China’s economy in 2024 than feared, while fiscal support will play a bigger...

Caixin Global

China Outlook 2024 - Navigating Between Cyclical and Structural Headwinds

Beijing steps up property support; risks being shifted to banks, longer-term downsizing to continue Support measures should help a broader...

ABN AMRO

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China’s Local Governments Paid Record $174 Billion in Bond Interest Last Year

China’s local governments spent a record 1.23 trillion yuan ($174 billion) on bond interest payments last year, up nearly 10% from 2022, official...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: Will China’s Relaxed Share Buyback Rules Help or Hinder the Market?

Stocks / Analysis: Will China’s relaxed share buyback rules help or hinder the market? China’s new rules on listed companies’ share buybacks were...

Caixin Global

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

Last time around in our EM series (see here) we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the...

Steno Research

UBS Economist Expects Less Property Drag on China’s Economy in 2024

The property slump is expected have slightly less of an impact on China’s economy in 2024 than feared, while fiscal support will play a bigger...

Caixin Global

China Outlook 2024 - Navigating Between Cyclical and Structural Headwinds

Beijing steps up property support; risks being shifted to banks, longer-term downsizing to continue Support measures should help a broader...

ABN AMRO