Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

China Pacific Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

*Weak 2H20 Results: China Pacific Insurance (2601.HK) (CPIC) reported full year 2020 results of CNY 31.1 bn, increasing CNY 3.2 bn (11.5%) YOY. On a HOH basis, however, CPIC’s results continue to exhibit challenges as 2H20 results declined CNY 3.7 bn (21.3%) – amounting to just CNY 13.7 bn. Profitability was hurt by both the Life and P&amp;C units; and*Get A Life: During 2H20, first year premium (FYP) agent per month declined by 48.6% HOH to CNY 1,648 due largely to CPIC relying on online channels to conduct new sales during the COVID-19 outbreak along with expanded the short-term policy sales. In addition, CPIC Life appears to have culled its salesforce over the period to 17,000 (2.2%) which now will impact future VONB. Life VONB declined 41.1%, largely as expected, due to COVID-19 volume drop and a VONB margin decline of 10%.

*Weak 2H20 Results: China Pacific Insurance (2601.HK) (CPIC) reported full year 2020 results of CNY 31.1 bn, increasing CNY 3.2 bn (11.5%) YOY. On a HOH basis, however, CPIC’s results continue to exhibit challenges as 2H20 results declined CNY 3.7 bn (21.3%) – amounting to just CNY 13.7 bn. Profitability was hurt by both the Life and P&amp;C units; and*Get A Life: During 2H20, first year premium (FYP) agent per month declined by 48.6% HOH to CNY 1,648 due largely to CPIC relying on online channels to conduct new sales during the COVID-19 outbreak along with expanded the short-term policy sales. In addition, CPIC Life appears to have culled its salesforce over the period to 17,000 (2.2%) which now will impact future VONB. Life VONB declined 41.1%, largely as expected, due to COVID-19 volume drop and a VONB margin decline of 10%.  

China Pacific Insurance – No Sign Of Life

China Life Insurance Co H / Equity Bottom-Up

*Reserve Top Ups Weigh On Numbers This Time: China Life Insurance (2628.HK) [China Life] reported 2020 bottom-line of CNY 50.3 bn – declining CNY 8.0 bn (13.7%) YOY. Excluding the impact of the 2019 tax refund of CNY 5.2 bn, China Life’s bottom-line performance would have declined only CNY 2.8 bn or 5.3% YOY – but still down; and*Value Challenges Ahead: With value challenges ahead in China Life’s illiquid securities portfolio (Challenged Tier 2/3 bank negotiable CDs and alternatives) and the CBIRC’s enabling of insurers to increase their concentration in equities, we not only question solvency margins but the viability of China Life’s full-year dividend per share – not to mention the impact of lower net yields.

*Reserve Top Ups Weigh On Numbers This Time: China Life Insurance (2628.HK) [China Life] reported 2020 bottom-line of CNY 50.3 bn – declining CNY 8.0 bn (13.7%) YOY. Excluding the impact of the 2019 tax refund of CNY 5.2 bn, China Life’s bottom-line performance would have declined only CNY 2.8 bn or 5.3% YOY – but still down; and*Value Challenges Ahead: With value challenges ahead in China Life’s illiquid securities portfolio (Challenged Tier 2/3 bank negotiable CDs and alternatives) and the CBIRC’s enabling of insurers to increase their concentration in equities, we not only question solvency margins but the viability of China Life’s full-year dividend per share – not to mention the impact of lower net yields.

ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance C / Equity Bottom-Up

*First Year Of Profitability: ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance (6060.HK) [ZhongAn] reported full year 2020 bottom-line results of CNY 554 mn, an increase of CNY 1.0 bn over losses of CNY 454 mn in 2019. Much of the turnaround in what amounts to ZhongAn’s first year of profitability can be attributed to the YOY volume growth in net earned premium of CNY 3.4 bn (26.7%) to CNY 16.7 bn; and *Credit Insurance &amp; Investment Concerns: The YOY combined ratio improvement of 10.8% to 102.5%, in pur view, is due largely to the improvement in credit insurance whose loss ratio declined from 97% in 2019 to 63%. We have a difficult time believing that little old ZhongAn has figured out the secret sauce to credit insurance risk. With value challenges ahead in ZhongAn’s illiquid securities portfolio (Challenged Tier 2/3 bank negotiable CDs and alternatives) and the CBIRC’s enabling of insurers to increase their concentration in equities, we question solvency margins and future ZhongAn dividends.

*First Year Of Profitability: ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance (6060.HK) [ZhongAn] reported full year 2020 bottom-line results of CNY 554 mn, an increase of CNY 1.0 bn over losses of CNY 454 mn in 2019. Much of the turnaround in what amounts to ZhongAn’s first year of profitability can be attributed to the YOY volume growth in net earned premium of CNY 3.4 bn (26.7%) to CNY 16.7 bn; and *Credit Insurance &amp; Investment Concerns: The YOY combined ratio improvement of 10.8% to 102.5%, in pur view, is due largely to the improvement in credit insurance whose loss ratio declined from 97% in 2019 to 63%. We have a difficult time believing that little old ZhongAn has figured out the secret sauce to credit insurance risk. With value challenges ahead in ZhongAn’s illiquid securities portfolio (Challenged Tier 2/3 bank negotiable CDs and alternatives) and the CBIRC’s enabling of insurers to increase their concentration in equities, we question solvency margins and future ZhongAn dividends.

ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance – Don’t Believe The Hype

*BEA Life Deal: In an effort to reinforce its Greater China franchise, AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] has entered into an agreement to purchase Bank of East Asia’s (23.HK) [BEA] wholly-owned life insurance unit, BEA Life, and entered into an exclusive 15-year bancassurance relationship with BEA for HKD 5.07 bn (USD 653 mn) covering Hong Kong and mainland China; and *Lost Focus: Acquiring a fledgling Hong Kong insurance franchise at a premium when you’re the dominant player and unemployment remains excessive, suggests that AIA is more concerned with growth metrics rather than addressing the risks that AIA is facing in mainland China, Hong Kong, and in its investment portfolio.

*BEA Life Deal: In an effort to reinforce its Greater China franchise, AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] has entered into an agreement to purchase Bank of East Asia’s (23.HK) [BEA] wholly-owned life insurance unit, BEA Life, and entered into an exclusive 15-year bancassurance relationship with BEA for HKD 5.07 bn (USD 653 mn) covering Hong Kong and mainland China; and *Lost Focus: Acquiring a fledgling Hong Kong insurance franchise at a premium when you’re the dominant player and unemployment remains excessive, suggests that AIA is more concerned with growth metrics rather than addressing the risks that AIA is facing in mainland China, Hong Kong, and in its investment portfolio. 

AIA Group – Confirming No Organic Growth On Horizon

*PAL Improves, But Fundamentals Weak: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK)[Ping An] reported a 1H20 operating profit of CNY 74.3 bn, increasing just 1% YOY and 5% below consensus. As a recovery appears underway with Ping An Life (PAL), Ping An results appeared to be well-supported by a HOH improvement of CNY 13.2 bn bn (40.4%) in net profits  - although its value of new business (VONB) declined CNY 3.9 bn (11.9%); *P&amp;C Remains A Challenge: Auto combined ratio reversed course and increased by 250 bp to 100.6%, and certainly warrants watching a driving returns to normal in mainland China. Auto insurance reform will remain a challenge for profitability going forward, and pricing has yet to stabilize. The credit insurance segment remains challenged, due to defaults on underlying loans.*Awful Bank Result: For 4Q20, PAB reported results of CNY 6.5 bn – declining CNY 2.2 bn (25.1%) on a linked quarter basis. In this environment, credit troubles no doubt are a foregone conclusion. However, this was not necessarily PAB’s biggest issue in its most results announcement, where the bulk of the earnings decline was attributed to a CNY 1.9 bn (17.1%) linked quarter increase in costs.

*PAL Improves, But Fundamentals Weak: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK)[Ping An] reported a 1H20 operating profit of CNY 74.3 bn, increasing just 1% YOY and 5% below consensus. As a recovery appears underway with Ping An Life (PAL), Ping An results appeared to be well-supported by a HOH improvement of CNY 13.2 bn bn (40.4%) in net profits  - although its value of new business (VONB) declined CNY 3.9 bn (11.9%); *P&amp;C Remains A Challenge: Auto combined ratio reversed course and increased by 250 bp to 100.6%, and certainly warrants watching a driving returns to normal in mainland China. Auto insurance reform will remain a challenge for profitability going forward, and pricing has yet to stabilize. The credit insurance segment remains challenged, due to defaults on underlying loans.*Awful Bank Result: For 4Q20, PAB reported results of CNY 6.5 bn – declining CNY 2.2 bn (25.1%) on a linked quarter basis. In this environment, credit troubles no doubt are a foregone conclusion. However, this was not necessarily PAB’s biggest issue in its most results announcement, where the bulk of the earnings decline was attributed to a CNY 1.9 bn (17.1%) linked quarter increase in costs.

Ping An Insurance – Hope Is Not A Strategy

Hong Kong

China Taiping Insurance Holdings Company Ltd., through subsidiaries, underwrites life and property/casualty insurance and reinsurance.

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China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK)

China Pacific Insurance – No Sign Of Life

CHINA PACIFIC INSURANCE: CPIC HOH results continue to exhibit challenges, declining 21.3%. Profitability was hurt by both the Life and P&C units.

Thomas J. Monaco

China Life Insurance – Not So Good

CHINA LIFE: China Life reported a 13.7% YOY decline in 2020 bottom-line. With value challenges ahead in China Life’s illiquid securities portfolio,...

Thomas J. Monaco

ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance – Don’t Believe The Hype

ZHONGAN ONLINE P&C INSURANCE: ZhongAn reported full year 2020 bottom-line results of CNY 554 mn. We have a difficult time believing that ZhongAn...

Thomas J. Monaco

AIA Group – Confirming No Organic Growth On Horizon

AIA GROUP: AIA entered into an agreement to acquire BEA Life, and entered into a bancassurance relationship with BEA. Acquiring a fledgling Hong...

Thomas J. Monaco

Ping An Insurance – Hope Is Not A Strategy

PING AN INSURANCE: Ping An reported 2H20 an operating profit decline of 12.2% HOH. Despite bottom-line improvement in Life, results are truly...

Thomas J. Monaco

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