HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> has been under pressure over the last two weeks due to concern on future offshore wind power project return.</li>
<li>We believe the low tariff of Rmb0.19/kWh won by a Huaneng Power Group consortium in Fujian is more an exceptional case and should not be taken as a new normal.</li>
<li>China Longyuan's growth has been well secured by its project pipeline as well as 21GW potential injection from parent. This round of de-rating is just too excessive. </li>
</ul>


Share price of China Longyuan Power (916 HK) has been under pressure over the last two weeks due to concern on future offshore wind power project return.
We believe the low tariff of Rmb0.19/kWh won by a Huaneng Power Group consortium in Fujian is more an exceptional case and should not be taken as a new normal.
China Longyuan's growth has been well secured by its project pipeline as well as 21GW potential injection from parent. This round of de-rating is just too excessive. 


China Longyuan (916 HK): A De-Rating Too Excessive

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 141 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>Increase in the A-H premium in Utilities (+4.4ppt) and Real Estate (+2.1ppt) were offset by the decline of A-H premium in Consumer Discretionary (+6.1ppt) and Health Care (-2.1ppt) sectors.</li>
<li>We highlight A-H premium changes in COSCO Ship Eng, YOFC, CSSC Offshore, Shanghai Fudan, China Suntien.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 141 stocks over the last week.
Increase in the A-H premium in Utilities (+4.4ppt) and Real Estate (+2.1ppt) were offset by the decline of A-H premium in Consumer Discretionary (+6.1ppt) and Health Care (-2.1ppt) sectors.
We highlight A-H premium changes in COSCO Ship Eng, YOFC, CSSC Offshore, Shanghai Fudan, China Suntien.


A-H Premium Weekly: COSCO Ship Eng, YOFC, CSSC Offshore, Shanghai Fudan, China Suntien

China Power International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15548:1" rel="noopener">China Power International (2380 HK)</a> will acquire 2.15GW clean energy capacity from its parent SPIC for a total of Rmb7.5bn. This will add 14.3% to its end-FY21 clean energy portfolio.</li>
<li>We think the assets are priced attractively at 12.5x PER for FY21, a discount to peers' average of 14x. The acquired capacity has an impressive 45.8% YoY earnings growth.</li>
<li>CPI targets to have 70% of end-FY23 capacity from clean energy, and this implies a 46.3% CAGR between FY21 and FY23, which is a very exciting momentum. </li>
</ul>



China Power International (2380 HK) will acquire 2.15GW clean energy capacity from its parent SPIC for a total of Rmb7.5bn. This will add 14.3% to its end-FY21 clean energy portfolio.
We think the assets are priced attractively at 12.5x PER for FY21, a discount to peers' average of 14x. The acquired capacity has an impressive 45.8% YoY earnings growth.
CPI targets to have 70% of end-FY23 capacity from clean energy, and this implies a 46.3% CAGR between FY21 and FY23, which is a very exciting momentum. 


China Power International (2380 HK): Another Step in Clean Energy Transition

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.</li>
<li>There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list.</li>
<li>Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.</li>
</ul>


We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.
There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list.
Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> will see accelerating earnings momentum in the rest of the year - after a weak start due to high base for YoY comparison.</li>
<li>We believe the combination of increase in utilisation hours, growth in installed capacity, improvement in power tariff and better cash flow and cost performance are the major drivers.</li>
<li>Share price has been weak in this year, and has returned the stock to less demanding level of 13.3x FY22 PER which we think cannot adequately reflects earnings prospects.</li>
</ul>



China Longyuan Power (916 HK) will see accelerating earnings momentum in the rest of the year - after a weak start due to high base for YoY comparison.
We believe the combination of increase in utilisation hours, growth in installed capacity, improvement in power tariff and better cash flow and cost performance are the major drivers.
Share price has been weak in this year, and has returned the stock to less demanding level of 13.3x FY22 PER which we think cannot adequately reflects earnings prospects.


China Longyuan (916 HK): On Your Mark, Get Set, Go!

China

China Suntien Green Energy Corp Ltd operates a wind farm and a natural gas business. The Company intends to build wind power projects and develop natural gas projects throughout China.

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China Suntien Green Energy (956 HK)

China Longyuan (916 HK): A De-Rating Too Excessive

The plunge in valuation has more than reflected the concerns on weaker return outlook for offshore wind power projects, but China Longyuan's long...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly: COSCO Ship Eng, YOFC, CSSC Offshore, Shanghai Fudan, China Suntien

A-H premium were flat last week. Stocks to highlight are COSCO Ship Eng, YOFC, CSSC Offshore, Shanghai Fudan, China Suntien.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Power International (2380 HK): Another Step in Clean Energy Transition

Acquisition of 2.15GW of clean energy capacity from its parent will push ahead CPI's target of having 70% of capacity from clean energy at end...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

We see 28 potential adds and 9 close adds for the HSCI in September. There are 22 potential deletes on market cap, liquidity and prolonged...

Brian Freitas

China Longyuan (916 HK): On Your Mark, Get Set, Go!

Longyuan should see better growth prospects in the rest of the year with drivers from improvement in utilisation hours, increase in capacity,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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