Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in December 2024.</li>
<li>The index changes for the December 2024 index rebal event will be announced after market close on 22nd November 2024.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in December 2024.
The index changes for the December 2024 index rebal event will be announced after market close on 22nd November 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Dec 24: Special Focus on IT, Healthcare, and SOEs

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Healthcare sector continues to gain momentum in Hong Kong market during pullback with materials and energy sectors lagging.</li>
<li>Value and Liquidity factors have outperformed since stimulus announcement in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health International (6618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> were rated as BUY as analysts turn toward China consumption plays as future winners.
</li>
</ul>


Healthcare sector continues to gain momentum in Hong Kong market during pullback with materials and energy sectors lagging.
Value and Liquidity factors have outperformed since stimulus announcement in September.

Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) , JD Health International (6618 HK) and Sands China (1928 HK) were rated as BUY as analysts turn toward China consumption plays as future winners.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Biotech will continue selling early-stage pipeline in a sluggish market, but this will further lower its valuation as financing won't improve quickly.</li>
<li>Pharmaceutical distribution companies are facing challenges, driving ongoing consolidation in the industry. However, this trend will ultimately benefit the growth of leading companies in the long run.</li>
<li>If investors truly understand "the essence" of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">HEC Changjiang Pharma</a>, they will be more calm/rational to look at this absorption merger and the inclusion of Hang Seng family of indexes.</li>
</ul>


Biotech will continue selling early-stage pipeline in a sluggish market, but this will further lower its valuation as financing won't improve quickly.
Pharmaceutical distribution companies are facing challenges, driving ongoing consolidation in the industry. However, this trend will ultimately benefit the growth of leading companies in the long run.
If investors truly understand "the essence" of HEC Changjiang Pharma, they will be more calm/rational to look at this absorption merger and the inclusion of Hang Seng family of indexes.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1)-Biotech Sell Asset,Pharmaceutical Distribution Company,HEC CJ Pharma

<ul>
<li>Wide dispersion of returns has meant that industry sector investing  was a major performance contributor in Hong Kong</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lygend-resources-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36493:1" rel="noopener">Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK)</a> brokeout after Indonesia announced a moratorium on new nickel mining permits.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)</a> broke its falling wedge pattern after announcing results.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-macau-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a> broke to a new low after announcing a disappointing 2Q EBITDA.  The sector is also affected by a crackdown on illegal money exchange operations.
</li>
</ul>


Wide dispersion of returns has meant that industry sector investing  was a major performance contributor in Hong Kong

Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK) brokeout after Indonesia announced a moratorium on new nickel mining permits.  Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) broke its falling wedge pattern after announcing results.


Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK) broke to a new low after announcing a disappointing 2Q EBITDA.  The sector is also affected by a crackdown on illegal money exchange operations.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 15)

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to the low base in 2023, net profit in 2024 would show restorative growth, with net profit attributable to owners of the company reaching RMB5+ billion, up 33% YoY.</li>
<li>Different from Sinopharm/CRP whose assets are scattered in different listed companies, pharmaceutical assets/resources of SH Pharma are integrated within the Company, so the intrinsic value of this model is greater.</li>
<li>SH Pharma is undervalued. Interim dividend will be added in 2024.Future dividend ratio would remain 30+%.SH Pharma as a SOE takes the lead in responding to policies to increase dividends.</li>
</ul>


Due to the low base in 2023, net profit in 2024 would show restorative growth, with net profit attributable to owners of the company reaching RMB5+ billion, up 33% YoY.
Different from Sinopharm/CRP whose assets are scattered in different listed companies, pharmaceutical assets/resources of SH Pharma are integrated within the Company, so the intrinsic value of this model is greater.
SH Pharma is undervalued. Interim dividend will be added in 2024.Future dividend ratio would remain 30+%.SH Pharma as a SOE takes the lead in responding to policies to increase dividends.


Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607.HK/601607.CH) - Profit Will Resume High Growth in 2024

China

China Resources Pharmaceutical Group Ltd. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company researches and develops, manufactures, and distributes pharmaceuticals. China Resources Pharmaceutical Group provides products and services involving chemicals, biologics, health products, medical appliances, and others. 

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China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320 HK)

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Dec 24: Special Focus on IT, Healthcare, and SOEs

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Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

Healthcare sector gains momentum in HK and materials and energy lag. Anta is appealing to the mass market with new megastores. JDH benefits from...

David Mudd

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1)-Biotech Sell Asset,Pharmaceutical Distribution Company,HEC CJ Pharma

Biotech's decision to sell pipeline will continue in sluggish market, leading to lower valuation. Pharmaceutical distribution companies face...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 15)

Successful returns in Hong Kong has meant getting the industry right! Lygend benefits from moratorium on new nickel mine permits. Sino Bio RX...

David Mudd

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607.HK/601607.CH) - Profit Will Resume High Growth in 2024

In 2024, SH Pharma's net profit will resume high growth due to 2023 low base. Interim dividend will be added in 2024. SH Pharma is undervalued and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Dec 24: Special Focus on IT, Healthcare, and SOEs

The HIGH conviction basket has been outperforming the Hang Seng index over the last few weeks. If you have not already initiated the trade...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (October 15)

Healthcare sector gains momentum in HK and materials and energy lag. Anta is appealing to the mass market with new megastores. JDH benefits from...

David Mudd

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1)-Biotech Sell Asset,Pharmaceutical Distribution Company,HEC CJ Pharma

​Biotech's decision to sell pipeline will continue in sluggish market, leading to lower valuation. Pharmaceutical distribution companies face...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 15)

Successful returns in Hong Kong has meant getting the industry right! Lygend benefits from moratorium on new nickel mine permits. Sino Bio RX...

David Mudd

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607.HK/601607.CH) - Profit Will Resume High Growth in 2024

​In 2024, SH Pharma's net profit will resume high growth due to 2023 low base. Interim dividend will be added in 2024. SH Pharma is undervalued and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Biotech's decision to sell pipeline will continue in sluggish market, leading to lower valuation. Pharmaceutical distribution companies face...

In 2024, SH Pharma's net profit will resume high growth due to 2023 low base. Interim dividend will be added in 2024. SH Pharma is undervalued and...