Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Early indications for the Golden Week suggest new home sales in the 18 major cities (with consistent data we track) deteriorated further on multiple metrics</li>
<li>There might be some data distortions due to delays in reporting over the holiday </li>
<li>For the full picture, we would wait another 1-2 weeks and look at the Golden Week and 1-2 weeks surrounding it</li>
</ul>


Early indications for the Golden Week suggest new home sales in the 18 major cities (with consistent data we track) deteriorated further on multiple metrics
There might be some data distortions due to delays in reporting over the holiday 
For the full picture, we would wait another 1-2 weeks and look at the Golden Week and 1-2 weeks surrounding it


China Property: Golden Week - Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales

<ul>
<li>We hosted a Real Estate Foresight Webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy easing wave</li>
<li>Can we see the impact of the policy easing? How much of further stimulus to expect? What will be the 'next normal' for new home sales after the downturn?</li>
<li>A quick poll of the participants (experienced professionals in China property) showed a 100% consensus that more easing will be needed to trigger a rebound in new home sales</li>
</ul>


We hosted a Real Estate Foresight Webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy easing wave
Can we see the impact of the policy easing? How much of further stimulus to expect? What will be the 'next normal' for new home sales after the downturn?
A quick poll of the participants (experienced professionals in China property) showed a 100% consensus that more easing will be needed to trigger a rebound in new home sales


China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we explored the latest interim results published by key Chinese developers, and reviewed government policies</li>
<li>SOE developers outperformed, while private developers struggled.  Latest policies, including adjustment of mortgage rate and down-payment ratios, are mainly demand side policies and will take time to implement</li>
<li>The latest share price rebound is largely driven by speculation-driven Chinese investors. We think the rally is not sustainable unless we see immediate improvement of the distress situation of developers.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we explored the latest interim results published by key Chinese developers, and reviewed government policies
SOE developers outperformed, while private developers struggled.  Latest policies, including adjustment of mortgage rate and down-payment ratios, are mainly demand side policies and will take time to implement
The latest share price rebound is largely driven by speculation-driven Chinese investors. We think the rally is not sustainable unless we see immediate improvement of the distress situation of developers.


China Property: Latest View After Interim Result, Government Policy and the Stock Market Rebound

Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greentown-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8954:1" rel="noopener">Greentown China (3900 HK)</a> is a high quality China property developer that is unfairly suppressed given the extreme pessimism of the sector.  </li>
<li>Even though the overall sales of China property industry will likely continue to decline, the market is large enough that some developers could stand to gain massive market share.  </li>
<li>The company trades at 2.5x 2024E PE, and 71% discount to NAV, with expected growth in net profit in 2023 and 2024.  </li>
</ul>



Greentown China (3900 HK) is a high quality China property developer that is unfairly suppressed given the extreme pessimism of the sector.  
Even though the overall sales of China property industry will likely continue to decline, the market is large enough that some developers could stand to gain massive market share.  
The company trades at 2.5x 2024E PE, and 71% discount to NAV, with expected growth in net profit in 2023 and 2024.  


Greentown China (3900 HK):  Disciplined Market Share Gainer Amid Chaos

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Having first introduced the three red line guidance in late 2020, the government has begun shifting its stance, and relaxing some of its regulatory oversight.</li>
<li>In this note, we looked at recent news developments and how some larger developers fared against the three red lines criterion.</li>
<li>Of the large developers we looked at, there are a few names which stand out which could potentially do a capital raising given their financial standing. </li>
</ul>


Having first introduced the three red line guidance in late 2020, the government has begun shifting its stance, and relaxing some of its regulatory oversight.
In this note, we looked at recent news developments and how some larger developers fared against the three red lines criterion.
Of the large developers we looked at, there are a few names which stand out which could potentially do a capital raising given their financial standing. 


Chinese Developers’ Overview - Shift in Sentiment but a Few Still Needs Some Equity

Hong Kong

China Resources Land Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties.  The Company also provides corporate financing and electrical engineering services.

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China Resources Land (1109 HK)

China Property: Golden Week - Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales

China Property: Early indications show that new home sales in major cities during Golden Week have worsened on multiple metrics, but data...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

Real Estate Foresight hosted a webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy-easing wave. Watch the...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Latest View After Interim Result, Government Policy and the Stock Market Rebound

We discussed the latest results by Chinese developers, the gov policy as well as the stock market rebound. The flows are mainly speculation...

Jacob Cheng

Chinese Developers’ Overview - Shift in Sentiment but a Few Still Needs Some Equity

Country Garden Holdings just launched a primary placement to raise US$300m, at a fixed 17.7% discount to last close. Proceeds will be used to repay...

Clarence Chu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Property: Golden Week - Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales

​China Property: Early indications show that new home sales in major cities during Golden Week have worsened on multiple metrics, but data...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

Real Estate Foresight hosted a webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy-easing wave. Watch the...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Latest View After Interim Result, Government Policy and the Stock Market Rebound

We discussed the latest results by Chinese developers, the gov policy as well as the stock market rebound. The flows are mainly speculation...

Jacob Cheng

Greentown China (3900 HK): Disciplined Market Share Gainer Amid Chaos

People's Bank of China announced two major policy changes last night: minimum downpayment ratio for first and second home purchases will be...

Steve Zhou, CFA

Chinese Developers’ Overview - Shift in Sentiment but a Few Still Needs Some Equity

Country Garden Holdings just launched a primary placement to raise US$300m, at a fixed 17.7% discount to last close. Proceeds will be used to repay...

Clarence Chu

China Property: Early indications show that new home sales in major cities during Golden Week have worsened on multiple metrics, but data...