Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China NPC meeting ended, with new policy mostly focused on debt, causing market disappointment.  We think China has to boost local consumption, as trade may see downside in future</li>
<li>While we like COLI which is a pure residential developer, another leading developer, China Resources Land, which operates retail malls, offers investor additional exposure to consumption recovery in China</li>
<li>Equity placement is a potential risk, however we think there is upside for the stock as long as it trades below HKD35 per share</li>
</ul>


China NPC meeting ended, with new policy mostly focused on debt, causing market disappointment.  We think China has to boost local consumption, as trade may see downside in future
While we like COLI which is a pure residential developer, another leading developer, China Resources Land, which operates retail malls, offers investor additional exposure to consumption recovery in China
Equity placement is a potential risk, however we think there is upside for the stock as long as it trades below HKD35 per share


China Resources Land: A Play on China Retail and Consumption Recovery

<ul>
<li>Besides COLI, we also like CRL, being another SOE play (no bankruptcy risk), with dual growth engine from residential development business and shopping mall business</li>
<li>Major share price drivers includes its contract sales trend, retail sales, rental performance as well as property policy from government</li>
<li>CRL is trading HKD30, there is no placement risk until it trades at HKD HKD39 (P/B =1x).  We recommend buying if stock trades &lt;HKD35 as a technical indicator</li>
</ul>


Besides COLI, we also like CRL, being another SOE play (no bankruptcy risk), with dual growth engine from residential development business and shopping mall business
Major share price drivers includes its contract sales trend, retail sales, rental performance as well as property policy from government
CRL is trading HKD30, there is no placement risk until it trades at HKD HKD39 (P/B =1x).  We recommend buying if stock trades &lt;HKD35 as a technical indicator


CR Land 1109 HK: Another SOE Play on China Prop – Dual Growth Engine from DP and IP Mall Business

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Premier Li delivered the Government Work Report and announced key economic targets. We think there is no surprise to the market</li>
<li>Regarding property front, government re-iterated its intention and willingness to contain property developer debt default risks, as seen by China Vanke case</li>
<li>Valuation is undemanding.  But we continue to be bearish, and we monitor the leading indicators such as land sales and new starts</li>
</ul>


Premier Li delivered the Government Work Report and announced key economic targets. We think there is no surprise to the market
Regarding property front, government re-iterated its intention and willingness to contain property developer debt default risks, as seen by China Vanke case
Valuation is undemanding.  But we continue to be bearish, and we monitor the leading indicators such as land sales and new starts


Takeaway from Two Sessions and Latest Update Re China Property – Monitor Leading Indicators

Analyst

Steve

Midea Real Estate Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-real-estate-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27450:1" rel="noopener">Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK)</a> announced last night a proposal for distribution in specie of the property development business to shareholders.</li>
<li>The proposal allows shareholders to select between receiving pro rata shares in the PrivateCo, or the cash alternative at HKD5.90 per share, a 57% premium to last close at HKD3.75. </li>
<li>I believe this is a good deal for minority shareholders.  The company (ex. property development business) will continue to be listed on the HKSE after the distribution.  </li>
</ul>



Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK) announced last night a proposal for distribution in specie of the property development business to shareholders.
The proposal allows shareholders to select between receiving pro rata shares in the PrivateCo, or the cash alternative at HKD5.90 per share, a 57% premium to last close at HKD3.75. 
I believe this is a good deal for minority shareholders.  The company (ex. property development business) will continue to be listed on the HKSE after the distribution.  


Midea Real Estate (3990 HK):  Divesting Property Development Business (Cash Option At 57% Premium)

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

<ul>
<li>In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets</li>
<li>We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements</li>
<li>The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view <a href="https://vimeo.com/911098574/5874dfd757?share=copy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this 3-minute version</a> with a few highlights.</li>
</ul>


In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets
We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements
The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view this 3-minute version with a few highlights.


Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

Hong Kong

China Resources Land Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties.  The Company also provides corporate financing and electrical engineering services.

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China Resources Land (1109 HK)

China Resources Land: A Play on China Retail and Consumption Recovery

For China's future growth, there is high uncertainty on trade. We think consumption is the part that government has to put effort on. CRL offers...

Jacob Cheng

CR Land 1109 HK: Another SOE Play on China Prop – Dual Growth Engine from DP and IP Mall Business

Besides COLI, we like 1109 HK CR Land, as another SOE play in the China Prop space. CRL has a dual growth engine from resi-for-sale biz and rental...

Jacob Cheng

Takeaway from Two Sessions and Latest Update Re China Property – Monitor Leading Indicators

We provided an update after China's Two Sessions and government policy on China property. There are increasing signs of government's support, but...

Jacob Cheng

Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): Divesting Property Development Business (Cash Option At 57% Premium)

Midea Real Estate (3990 HK) announced last night a proposal for distribution of the property development business to shareholders. The cash...

Steve

Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

China: As the Two Meetings kick off this week, our China Property Outlook 2024 webinar from February dives deeper into the China housing market,...

Robert Ciemniak

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