Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>News reports indicate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)</a> is looking to place 300m shares at a price range of HK$12.93-13.20/share to raise around US$500m.</li>
<li>The 300m shares is nearly 33 days of ADV, but around 11-12% of the new shares will be bought by passive trackers early next week and provide near-term support.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)</a> trades cheaper than its peers on EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and forward PE. Shorts have ticked higher in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


News reports indicate that China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) is looking to place 300m shares at a price range of HK$12.93-13.20/share to raise around US$500m.
The 300m shares is nearly 33 days of ADV, but around 11-12% of the new shares will be bought by passive trackers early next week and provide near-term support.

China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and forward PE. Shorts have ticked higher in the last couple of weeks.


China Vanke (2202 HK): Placement & Index Flows

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>China Vanke aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share primary placement.</li>
<li>Vanke had recently stated that it aimed to raise around US$2bn via an A-share private placement, so a placement was expected for sure.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


China Vanke aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share primary placement.
Vanke had recently stated that it aimed to raise around US$2bn via an A-share private placement, so a placement was expected for sure.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


China Vanke Placement - A Placement Was Expected, Unclear if It Was This One

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite lagging construction activity, property sales started to pick up post-CNY, again correctly predicted by our leading indicator GAIN.</li><li>In particular, new home sales in 30 cities narrowed YoY decline to -21% post-CNY vs. -25% pre-CNY (vs. the similar period in 2022).</li><li>Existing home market is seeing much stronger momentum with sales in 9 major cities +38% YoY post-CNY vs. +15% YoY preCNY.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite lagging construction activity, property sales started to pick up post-CNY, again correctly predicted by our leading indicator GAIN.In particular, new home sales in 30 cities narrowed YoY decline to -21% post-CNY vs. -25% pre-CNY (vs. the similar period in 2022).Existing home market is seeing much stronger momentum with sales in 9 major cities +38% YoY post-CNY vs. +15% YoY preCNY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly: Hopes Are Returning Post-CNY

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We suggest investors to accumulate CR Land after the recent pull back.</li><li>Our main thesis is its visible earnings growth acceleration (1%/11%/17% YoY in 2022-24E) driven by robust rental income (20-30% CAGR) and sales back to teens growth in 2023E.</li><li>This would help not widen its gap with others (FY22E - 20% YoY on average), but also make its 14th Five Year target closer to reach on the contracted sales side (+15% 2020-2025E CAGR), especially with the chance of policy relaxation in Tier 1 cities. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We suggest investors to accumulate CR Land after the recent pull back.Our main thesis is its visible earnings growth acceleration (1%/11%/17% YoY in 2022-24E) driven by robust rental income (20-30% CAGR) and sales back to teens growth in 2023E.This would help not widen its gap with others (FY22E - 20% YoY on average), but also make its 14th Five Year target closer to reach on the contracted sales side (+15% 2020-2025E CAGR), especially with the chance of policy relaxation in Tier 1 cities. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CR Land (1109 HK) – Outperforming FY22E

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of China Mobile, BYD, Simcere, ICBC, CNOOC, Meituan, Geely, CCB, Country Garden Services, Anta. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of China Mobile, BYD, Simcere, ICBC, CNOOC, Meituan, Geely, CCB, Country Garden Services, Anta. 


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: Health Care Led Inflows in Jan

Hong Kong

China Resources Land Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties.  The Company also provides corporate financing and electrical engineering services.

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China Resources Land (1109 HK)

China Vanke (2202 HK): Placement & Index Flows

China Vanke is looking to sell 300m shares in a placement to raise US$500m. Passive index trackers will buy between 11-12% of the new shares early...

Brian Freitas

China Vanke Placement - A Placement Was Expected, Unclear if It Was This One

China Vanke aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share primary placement. In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly: Hopes Are Returning Post-CNY

Despite lagging construction activity, property sales started to pick up post-CNY, again correctly predicted by our leading indicator GAIN.

CMB International

CR Land (1109 HK) – Outperforming FY22E

Our main thesis is its visible earnings growth acceleration (1%/11%/17% YoY in 2022-24E) driven by robust rental income (20-30% CAGR) and sales...

CMB International

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: Health Care Led Inflows in Jan

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for January and highlight flows for China Mobile, BYD, Simcere, ICBC, CNOOC, Meituan, Geely, CCB, Country...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)