Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI 2023 dividend futures have dropped over the last week as results have trickled in and some of the larger dividend payers have cut their final dividends.</li>
<li>Over 50% of the DIPS are confirmed now and that number will increase significantly over the next couple of days as the remaining companies announce their final dividends.</li>
<li>From our estimates, just over 80% of the DIPS will be confirmed by tomorrow though over 66% of the total DIPS will have CNYHKD risk attached to it.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI 2023 dividend futures have dropped over the last week as results have trickled in and some of the larger dividend payers have cut their final dividends.
Over 50% of the DIPS are confirmed now and that number will increase significantly over the next couple of days as the remaining companies announce their final dividends.
From our estimates, just over 80% of the DIPS will be confirmed by tomorrow though over 66% of the total DIPS will have CNYHKD risk attached to it.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Nearing the Pointy End of Results Season

<ul>
<li>News reports indicate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)</a> is looking to place 300m shares at a price range of HK$12.93-13.20/share to raise around US$500m.</li>
<li>The 300m shares is nearly 33 days of ADV, but around 11-12% of the new shares will be bought by passive trackers early next week and provide near-term support.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)</a> trades cheaper than its peers on EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and forward PE. Shorts have ticked higher in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


News reports indicate that China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) is looking to place 300m shares at a price range of HK$12.93-13.20/share to raise around US$500m.
The 300m shares is nearly 33 days of ADV, but around 11-12% of the new shares will be bought by passive trackers early next week and provide near-term support.

China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and forward PE. Shorts have ticked higher in the last couple of weeks.


China Vanke (2202 HK): Placement & Index Flows

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>China Vanke aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share primary placement.</li>
<li>Vanke had recently stated that it aimed to raise around US$2bn via an A-share private placement, so a placement was expected for sure.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


China Vanke aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share primary placement.
Vanke had recently stated that it aimed to raise around US$2bn via an A-share private placement, so a placement was expected for sure.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


China Vanke Placement - A Placement Was Expected, Unclear if It Was This One

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of China Mobile, BYD, Simcere, ICBC, CNOOC, Meituan, Geely, CCB, Country Garden Services, Anta. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of China Mobile, BYD, Simcere, ICBC, CNOOC, Meituan, Geely, CCB, Country Garden Services, Anta. 


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: Health Care Led Inflows in Jan

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The announcement of easing most Covid restrictions resulted in a new rally high, but the close was below at least the previous two-day open/closes, making it an outside day reversal pattern.</li><li>This note highlights the reversal patterns in HSI, HSTECH, AIA, and Tencent. These have some of the cleanest reversal patterns.</li><li>In real estate, SOEs like China Resource Land [-11.75% from 30th November intraday peak] and China Overseas Land [-9.7% from 29th intraday peak] reversed before the China Mainland Property index [6th December], a reflection of a short squeeze as a crucial driver of sector rally. Longfor peaked on 6th December and is down 17% after a 276% rally.</li></ul>

The announcement of easing most Covid restrictions resulted in a new rally high, but the close was below at least the previous two-day open/closes, making it an outside day reversal pattern.This note highlights the reversal patterns in HSI, HSTECH, AIA, and Tencent. These have some of the cleanest reversal patterns.In real estate, SOEs like China Resource Land [-11.75% from 30th November intraday peak] and China Overseas Land [-9.7% from 29th intraday peak] reversed before the China Mainland Property index [6th December], a reflection of a short squeeze as a crucial driver of sector rally. Longfor peaked on 6th December and is down 17% after a 276% rally.

Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, AIA, Tencent, and China Resource Land

Hong Kong

China Resources Land Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties.  The Company also provides corporate financing and electrical engineering services.

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China Resources Land (1109 HK)

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Nearing the Pointy End of Results Season

Over half of 2023 DIPS are now confirmed & will rise to 80% by close tomorrow. There is FX risk attached to most dividends. The 2023/24 steepener...

Brian Freitas

China Vanke (2202 HK): Placement & Index Flows

China Vanke is looking to sell 300m shares in a placement to raise US$500m. Passive index trackers will buy between 11-12% of the new shares early...

Brian Freitas

China Vanke Placement - A Placement Was Expected, Unclear if It Was This One

China Vanke aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share primary placement. In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: Health Care Led Inflows in Jan

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for January and highlight flows for China Mobile, BYD, Simcere, ICBC, CNOOC, Meituan, Geely, CCB, Country...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, AIA, Tencent, and China Resource Land

The announcement of easing most Covid restrictions resulted in a new rally high, but the close was below at least the previous two-day open/closes,...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)