HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dismal share price performance for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a> has created an opportunity for bottom fishing. Management also looks positive with 30% profit growth guidance for FY23.</li>
<li>There are rooms for good dollar margin recovery, unit sales rebound and improvement in free cash flow in FY24. Spin-off of value-added services is also a value-enhancing move. </li>
<li>De-Rating over the last three years has put the stock on undemanding multiples of 8x PER and 0.75x P/B. Its 14.8% 3-year EPS CAGR is also better than sector average.</li>
</ul>


Dismal share price performance for China Gas Holdings (384 HK) has created an opportunity for bottom fishing. Management also looks positive with 30% profit growth guidance for FY23.
There are rooms for good dollar margin recovery, unit sales rebound and improvement in free cash flow in FY24. Spin-off of value-added services is also a value-enhancing move. 
De-Rating over the last three years has put the stock on undemanding multiples of 8x PER and 0.75x P/B. Its 14.8% 3-year EPS CAGR is also better than sector average.


China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Worth a Bet Now

<ul>
<li>With an 18.6% growth in 1H22 profit from continuing operations, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> has not disappointed us. Natural gas sales segment is a bright spot with solid growth.</li>
<li>Net cash swelled to Rmb10.2bn at end-Jun, about 2x more than the level at end-FY21. We estimate this roughly equals to 19% of the current share price. </li>
<li>New project momentum looks healthy and the market seems to have underestimated FY22 earnings. Its 8x and 7.5x PERs for FY22 and FY23 are clearly attractive. </li>
</ul>


With an 18.6% growth in 1H22 profit from continuing operations, Kunlun Energy (135 HK) has not disappointed us. Natural gas sales segment is a bright spot with solid growth.
Net cash swelled to Rmb10.2bn at end-Jun, about 2x more than the level at end-FY21. We estimate this roughly equals to 19% of the current share price. 
New project momentum looks healthy and the market seems to have underestimated FY22 earnings. Its 8x and 7.5x PERs for FY22 and FY23 are clearly attractive. 


Kunlun Energy (135 HK): An Excellent Show

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener"><strong>ENN Energy (2688 HK)</strong></a>, a major clean energy distributor based in China, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code</li>
<li>The largest shareholder is ENN Group (34.28% of shares out), an entity controlled by founder Wang Yusuo and his wife, Zhao Baoju. </li>
<li>ENN Energy is a US$8.5bn market cap company. It's <em>possible</em> ENN Group make an Offer. But more likely, I'd expect an Offer from a (larger) third party.</li>
</ul>



ENN Energy (2688 HK), a major clean energy distributor based in China, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code
The largest shareholder is ENN Group (34.28% of shares out), an entity controlled by founder Wang Yusuo and his wife, Zhao Baoju. 
ENN Energy is a US$8.5bn market cap company. It's possible ENN Group make an Offer. But more likely, I'd expect an Offer from a (larger) third party.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> announced a pre-conditional privatisation from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-natural-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16456:1" rel="noopener">ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH)</a>/ENN-NG comprising HK$24.50 cash per share + 2.9427 ENN-NG H Shares per ENN share.</li>
<li>The appraised offer value is HK$80.00 (HK$82.35, including the 2024 dividend), which is a tad optimistic. My calculations suggest a realistic offer value range of HK$71.47-76.32. </li>
<li>The offer is final. The precondition satisfaction is low-risk. A high AGM minority participation is a risk, but the scheme vote should pass as the offer terms are reasonable.   </li>
</ul>



ENN Energy (2688 HK) announced a pre-conditional privatisation from ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH)/ENN-NG comprising HK$24.50 cash per share + 2.9427 ENN-NG H Shares per ENN share.
The appraised offer value is HK$80.00 (HK$82.35, including the 2024 dividend), which is a tad optimistic. My calculations suggest a realistic offer value range of HK$71.47-76.32. 
The offer is final. The precondition satisfaction is low-risk. A high AGM minority participation is a risk, but the scheme vote should pass as the offer terms are reasonable.   


ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas’ Preconditional Cash/Scrip Offer

<ul>
<li>The proposed privatisation price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> appears reasonable, which is estimated to be 1.73x P/B and 11.5x PER on a 12-month forward basis. </li>
<li>The valuations are both at a good premium over the average since 2024. ENN Energy is also being put at the top of the sector's PER range. </li>
<li>Scheme shareholders will hold new H-shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-natural-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16456:1" rel="noopener">ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH)</a>, which historically has a more volatile earnings record, but its A-share has been doing well. </li>
</ul>


The proposed privatisation price for ENN Energy (2688 HK) appears reasonable, which is estimated to be 1.73x P/B and 11.5x PER on a 12-month forward basis. 
The valuations are both at a good premium over the average since 2024. ENN Energy is also being put at the top of the sector's PER range. 
Scheme shareholders will hold new H-shares of ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH), which historically has a more volatile earnings record, but its A-share has been doing well. 


ENN Energy (2688 HK): Our Initial View on the Privatisation - Valuation and Fundamentals

Hong Kong

China Resources Gas Group Ltd distributes natural gas and petroleum gas in the cities of Chengdu, Fuyang, Huaibei, Linhai, Suzhou and Wuxi in the PRC. The Company also operates compressed natural gas filling stations in Chengdu, Nanjing and Wuxi. The group also is involved in bottled liquefied petroleum gas distribution in cities of Fuyang, Suzhou and Wuxi.

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CR Gas (1193 HK)

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Worth a Bet Now

There are rooms for good dollar margin recovery, unit sales rebound and improvement in free cash flow in FY24. Spin-off of value-added services is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): An Excellent Show

Impressive 1H22 result is a clear demonstration of Kunlun's operational strengths and cash generating ability. The market should ease concerns on...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Third Party Offer?

My initial takeaway is that this not is the Offer investors are seeking. Yes - the headline Offer consideration of $80/share is fair. However,...

David Blennerhassett

ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas’ Preconditional Cash/Scrip Offer

There is valuation uncertainty on the yet-to-be-listed ENN-NG H shares. While the appraised value is a tad optimistic, the terms are reasonable....

Arun George

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Our Initial View on the Privatisation - Valuation and Fundamentals

The privatisation price appears reasonable, at a premium over average since 2024 and at the top of sector's PER range. Scheme shareholders will...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Worth a Bet Now

There are rooms for good dollar margin recovery, unit sales rebound and improvement in free cash flow in FY24. Spin-off of value-added services is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): An Excellent Show

Impressive 1H22 result is a clear demonstration of Kunlun's operational strengths and cash generating ability. The market should ease concerns on...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Third Party Offer?

My initial takeaway is that this not is the Offer investors are seeking. Yes - the headline Offer consideration of $80/share is fair. However,...

David Blennerhassett

ENN Energy (2688 HK): ENN Natural Gas’ Preconditional Cash/Scrip Offer

There is valuation uncertainty on the yet-to-be-listed ENN-NG H shares. While the appraised value is a tad optimistic, the terms are reasonable....

Arun George

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Our Initial View on the Privatisation - Valuation and Fundamentals

​The privatisation price appears reasonable, at a premium over average since 2024 and at the top of sector's PER range. Scheme shareholders will...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The privatisation price appears reasonable, at a premium over average since 2024 and at the top of sector's PER range. Scheme shareholders will...