Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Virtual Call Does Little To Quell Concerns: Last week a competitor held a virtual conference with AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA]. In typical fashion, the management of AIA only discussed the positives neglecting many of the market realities;   *Mainland China Expansion and ASEAN Margins In Focus: According to management, the mainland Chinese expansion is of course progressing well as it plans three regional hubs - Beijing, Shanghai and recently approved Sichuan branch - to act as business centers. As discussed at the latest 3Q20 earnings release and now re-discussed, VONB margins have been increasing in select ASEAN markets; and*Elephants In The Room: Given both the earnings and balance sheet headwinds, who really cares about how many agents were added in mainland China? What was not discussed: negative tax implications for mainland Chinese subsidiaries versus branches; the bogusly rated AAA mainland Chinese bonds; the flailing Hong Kong flagship; and its USD-based investment portfolio.

*Virtual Call Does Little To Quell Concerns: Last week a competitor held a virtual conference with AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA]. In typical fashion, the management of AIA only discussed the positives neglecting many of the market realities;   *Mainland China Expansion and ASEAN Margins In Focus: According to management, the mainland Chinese expansion is of course progressing well as it plans three regional hubs - Beijing, Shanghai and recently approved Sichuan branch - to act as business centers. As discussed at the latest 3Q20 earnings release and now re-discussed, VONB margins have been increasing in select ASEAN markets; and*Elephants In The Room: Given both the earnings and balance sheet headwinds, who really cares about how many agents were added in mainland China? What was not discussed: negative tax implications for mainland Chinese subsidiaries versus branches; the bogusly rated AAA mainland Chinese bonds; the flailing Hong Kong flagship; and its USD-based investment portfolio.  

*Weak Results Showing No Signs Of Improvement: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] reported abbreviated results for 3Q20, coming in at CNY 34.5 bn which declined CNY 8.2 bn (19.2%) on a linked quarter basis. The decline in earnings is attributed to a CNY 10.1 bn (8.7%) decline in Ping An Life (PAL) net earned premiums; a CNY 40.7 bn (43.7%) decline in investment income as rates and markets stabilized; and a CNY 8.5 bn (20.1%) increase in SG&amp;A;*Insurance Remains Fundamentally Challenged: Despite the Investor Day cheerleading session, PAL’s value of new business (VONB) declined 33% YOY in 3Q, driven by larger than expected margin decline associated with mix of reduced agent motivation during COVID-19 and demand weakness. Ping An P&amp;C’s combined ratio rose 1.0% to 99.1% in 3Q20 - barely allowing this business any breathing room. This increase would appear to be attributed to auto insurance reform, which is placing downward pressure on pricing; andBank Risk: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], reported 3Q20 net income of CNY 8.7 bn – increasing CNY 3.6 bn or 70% linked quarter. One factor, and one factor alone, was responsible for the increase - provisions were pre-emptively reduced CNY 6.7 bn (29.5%) over the period despite a true decrease in credit risk. Net new NPLs have increased CNY 23.0 bn linked quarter or a massive 223.1% on an annualized basis. Assuming the credit break in the PAB portfolio holds – which it likely will given the economic weakness attributed to COVID-19 – reserves would appear light by CNY 178 bn if we assume a 2x NPL ratio. This shortfall represents 62% of stated equity.

*Weak Results Showing No Signs Of Improvement: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] reported abbreviated results for 3Q20, coming in at CNY 34.5 bn which declined CNY 8.2 bn (19.2%) on a linked quarter basis. The decline in earnings is attributed to a CNY 10.1 bn (8.7%) decline in Ping An Life (PAL) net earned premiums; a CNY 40.7 bn (43.7%) decline in investment income as rates and markets stabilized; and a CNY 8.5 bn (20.1%) increase in SG&amp;A;*Insurance Remains Fundamentally Challenged: Despite the Investor Day cheerleading session, PAL’s value of new business (VONB) declined 33% YOY in 3Q, driven by larger than expected margin decline associated with mix of reduced agent motivation during COVID-19 and demand weakness. Ping An P&amp;C’s combined ratio rose 1.0% to 99.1% in 3Q20 - barely allowing this business any breathing room. This increase would appear to be attributed to auto insurance reform, which is placing downward pressure on pricing; andBank Risk: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], reported 3Q20 net income of CNY 8.7 bn – increasing CNY 3.6 bn or 70% linked quarter. One factor, and one factor alone, was responsible for the increase - provisions were pre-emptively reduced CNY 6.7 bn (29.5%) over the period despite a true decrease in credit risk. Net new NPLs have increased CNY 23.0 bn linked quarter or a massive 223.1% on an annualized basis. Assuming the credit break in the PAB portfolio holds – which it likely will given the economic weakness attributed to COVID-19 – reserves would appear light by CNY 178 bn if we assume a 2x NPL ratio. This shortfall represents 62% of stated equity. 

Ping An Insurance – The Drip Drop Of Bad News

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*High Court Ruling: The United Kingdom High Court ruled on a test case brought forth by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) indicates that the "COVID-19 pandemic and the government and public response were a single cause of the covered loss, which is a key requirement for claims to be paid even if the policy provides cover". The decision on th Business Interruption (BI) case against the insurance industry is mostly in favorable to policyholders; and *Asia-Pac To Follow: As many countries in Asia-Pacific are Common Law nations, High Court rulings such as this have a tendency to set precedent. It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see significant capital raises given the challenges to solvency.

*High Court Ruling: The United Kingdom High Court ruled on a test case brought forth by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) indicates that the "COVID-19 pandemic and the government and public response were a single cause of the covered loss, which is a key requirement for claims to be paid even if the policy provides cover". The decision on th Business Interruption (BI) case against the insurance industry is mostly in favorable to policyholders; and *Asia-Pac To Follow: As many countries in Asia-Pacific are Common Law nations, High Court rulings such as this have a tendency to set precedent. It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see significant capital raises given the challenges to solvency.  

Asian Insurers – High Court Ruling A Harbinger For Region

*PAL Leads Improvement: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK)[Ping An] reported a 1H20 operating profit of CNY 74.3 bn, increasing just 1% YOY and 5% below consensus. As a recovery appears underway with Ping An Life (PAL), Ping An results appeared to be well-supported by a HOH improvement of CNY 13.2 bn bn (40.4%) in net profits  - although its value of new business (VONB) declined CNY 3.9 bn (11.9%); and *P&amp;C Remains A Challenge: Ping An P&amp;C operating profits declined CNY 2.6 bn (29.2%) HOH, as the overall combined ratio eroded 1.5% to 98.1% due primarily to continued weakness within the credit insurance unit where the combined ratio came in at 125.6% (up 32.4%). The credit insurance segment reported a CNY 3.5 bn underwriting loss, due to defaults on underlying loans. Auto combined ratio improved temporarily during the lockdown by 360 bp to 94.7%, and certainly warrants watching a driving returns to normal in mainland China.

*PAL Leads Improvement: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK)[Ping An] reported a 1H20 operating profit of CNY 74.3 bn, increasing just 1% YOY and 5% below consensus. As a recovery appears underway with Ping An Life (PAL), Ping An results appeared to be well-supported by a HOH improvement of CNY 13.2 bn bn (40.4%) in net profits  - although its value of new business (VONB) declined CNY 3.9 bn (11.9%); and *P&amp;C Remains A Challenge: Ping An P&amp;C operating profits declined CNY 2.6 bn (29.2%) HOH, as the overall combined ratio eroded 1.5% to 98.1% due primarily to continued weakness within the credit insurance unit where the combined ratio came in at 125.6% (up 32.4%). The credit insurance segment reported a CNY 3.5 bn underwriting loss, due to defaults on underlying loans. Auto combined ratio improved temporarily during the lockdown by 360 bp to 94.7%, and certainly warrants watching a driving returns to normal in mainland China.

Ping An Insurance – Life Showing Signs Of Life

PICC Property & Casualty H / Equity Bottom-Up

*Weak 1H20 Results: PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) [PICC P&amp;C] reported 1H20 earnings of CNY 13.2 bn, which was 6% below consensus and down 22% YOY.  Excluding the one-off CNY 4.2 bn tax impact which occurred in 1H19, PICC P&amp;C’s pre-tax earnings actually grew by 4.1%;*Credit Insurance Remains A Trouble Spot: Credit insurance line reported the largest deterioration in underwriting results, posting a CNY 2.9 bn underwriting loss. Despite the decline in new premiums by 59% YOY, PICC P&amp;C reported a 32% YOY increase in earned premium within this unit. This is most likely attributed to policies sold in 2019, in our view. Credit insurance also reported an astronomical combined ratio of 138.6%; and*Auto Enjoying Having No One On The Road: The auto insurance unit reported a CNY 6.6 bn underwriting profit, which increased 194% YOY, as its combined ratio improved 3.3% to 94.8%. This is attributed to the social distancing measures implemented in 1H20, which significantly reduced vehicle use - especially commercial vehicles (which tends to have higher claims). We view this as temporary, given how quickly mainland China is turning the page on COVID-19.

*Weak 1H20 Results: PICC P&amp;C (2328.HK) [PICC P&amp;C] reported 1H20 earnings of CNY 13.2 bn, which was 6% below consensus and down 22% YOY.  Excluding the one-off CNY 4.2 bn tax impact which occurred in 1H19, PICC P&amp;C’s pre-tax earnings actually grew by 4.1%;*Credit Insurance Remains A Trouble Spot: Credit insurance line reported the largest deterioration in underwriting results, posting a CNY 2.9 bn underwriting loss. Despite the decline in new premiums by 59% YOY, PICC P&amp;C reported a 32% YOY increase in earned premium within this unit. This is most likely attributed to policies sold in 2019, in our view. Credit insurance also reported an astronomical combined ratio of 138.6%; and*Auto Enjoying Having No One On The Road: The auto insurance unit reported a CNY 6.6 bn underwriting profit, which increased 194% YOY, as its combined ratio improved 3.3% to 94.8%. This is attributed to the social distancing measures implemented in 1H20, which significantly reduced vehicle use - especially commercial vehicles (which tends to have higher claims). We view this as temporary, given how quickly mainland China is turning the page on COVID-19.   

China

China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation is a reinsurance company. The company operates four principal business segments, consisting of P&C reinsurance, life and health reinsurance, primary P&C insurance and asset management businesses.

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China Reinsurance (Group) (1508 HK)

AIA Group – Let’s Get Real

AIA GROUP: AIA Must Not Believe Its Investor Base Cares About Anything But China Growth. It Expects Everyone To Ignore Hong Kong, Negative Tax...

Thomas J. Monaco

Ping An Insurance – The Drip Drop Of Bad News

PING AN INSURANCE: First It Was The Bank Who Reported Manufactured Results, As Credit Worsened. Now The Insurers Continue To Struggle With No End...

Thomas J. Monaco

Asian Insurers – High Court Ruling A Harbinger For Region

*High Court Ruling: The United Kingdom High Court ruled on a test case brought forth by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) indicates that the...

Thomas J. Monaco

Ping An Insurance – Life Showing Signs Of Life

*PAL Leads Improvement: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK)[Ping An] reported a 1H20 operating profit of CNY 74.3 bn, increasing just 1% YOY and 5% below...

Thomas J. Monaco

PICC P&C – Still Too Much Credit

*Weak 1H20 Results: PICC P&C (2328.HK) [PICC P&C] reported 1H20 earnings of CNY 13.2 bn, which was 6% below consensus and down 22% YOY....

Thomas J. Monaco

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