HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Communications Construction / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> should see positive new contract momentum in 2H22. We also expect softening in cost pressure to bring about better margin. </li>
<li>It is actively looking to recycle and realise the value of its assets and good progress are expected in 2H22. Such moves will narrow the currently deeply discounted 0.18x P/B. </li>
<li>With order backlog amounting to 4.6x of annualised 1H22 revenue, earnings prospects are well secured, making its FY22F PER of 2.6x and FY23F of 2.3x very cheap.</li>
</ul>



China Communications Construction (1800 HK) should see positive new contract momentum in 2H22. We also expect softening in cost pressure to bring about better margin. 
It is actively looking to recycle and realise the value of its assets and good progress are expected in 2H22. Such moves will narrow the currently deeply discounted 0.18x P/B. 
With order backlog amounting to 4.6x of annualised 1H22 revenue, earnings prospects are well secured, making its FY22F PER of 2.6x and FY23F of 2.3x very cheap.


China Comm Const (1800 HK): Key Takeaways from Post-1H22 Call

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> sealed Rmb371bn of new contract in 2Q22, or a 35.2% YoY growth, representing a sharp acceleration from just 4.9% in 1Q22. </li>
<li>We estimate backlog is now around Rmb3.5trn and this equals to 5.2x FY21 revenue. This should have improved from 4.6x at end-FY21 and provides CCCC a secured pipeline.</li>
<li>CCCC is well positioned to gain more contracts in 2H22 as driven by the local government special purpose bonds issue. Such issue reached Rmb1.5trn, or a 166.1% growth, in Jun.</li>
</ul>



China Communications Construction (1800 HK) sealed Rmb371bn of new contract in 2Q22, or a 35.2% YoY growth, representing a sharp acceleration from just 4.9% in 1Q22. 
We estimate backlog is now around Rmb3.5trn and this equals to 5.2x FY21 revenue. This should have improved from 4.6x at end-FY21 and provides CCCC a secured pipeline.
CCCC is well positioned to gain more contracts in 2H22 as driven by the local government special purpose bonds issue. Such issue reached Rmb1.5trn, or a 166.1% growth, in Jun.


China Comm Const (1800 HK): Accelerating New Contract Wins

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's 0.4% GDP growth for 2Q22 is disappointing and worse than market expectation. To revive the economic outlook in 2H22, more policy measures are expected to be put in place. </li>
<li>Over the last two weeks, policies on expansion of highway network, increase in urbanisation level, support on auto consumption and promotion of sports activities have already been announced.</li>
<li>We identify <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-east-education-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27843:1" rel="noopener">China East Education (667 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> as beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


China's 0.4% GDP growth for 2Q22 is disappointing and worse than market expectation. To revive the economic outlook in 2H22, more policy measures are expected to be put in place. 
Over the last two weeks, policies on expansion of highway network, increase in urbanisation level, support on auto consumption and promotion of sports activities have already been announced.
We identify China Communications Construction (1800 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), China East Education (667 HK), Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) and Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) as beneficiaries.


China Stimulus: Beneficiaries from a Policy Perspective

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> has bucked the trend of weaker earnings growth in the last two quarters by posting a healthy 17.7% YoY net profit growth for 1Q22.</li>
<li>While gross margin contracted slightly, the good control on selling and administrative expenses have partly absorbed margin contraction. Its new contract value for 1Q22 has also reached record high.</li>
<li>With government's aggressive special purpose bond issue and infrastructure investment, we expect new contract momentum to pick up. Trading at 3.2x PER and 0.22x P/B, CCCC is massively undervalued.</li>
</ul>



China Communications Construction (1800 HK) has bucked the trend of weaker earnings growth in the last two quarters by posting a healthy 17.7% YoY net profit growth for 1Q22.
While gross margin contracted slightly, the good control on selling and administrative expenses have partly absorbed margin contraction. Its new contract value for 1Q22 has also reached record high.
With government's aggressive special purpose bond issue and infrastructure investment, we expect new contract momentum to pick up. Trading at 3.2x PER and 0.22x P/B, CCCC is massively undervalued.


China Comm Const (1800 HK): Grossly Undervalued by the Market

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> targets for at least 6% growth in revenue with slight operating margin expansion for FY22; and these should sustain its stable growth trend. </li>
<li>It will increase focus on "big city" projects where there are more opportunities. We think its target of at least 11.8% new contract value growth in FY22 is conservative.</li>
<li>Reduction in losses at concessionary projects, improvement in operating cash flow and lowering of gearing levels all indicate that CCCC is moving in the right direction.</li>
</ul>



China Communications Construction (1800 HK) targets for at least 6% growth in revenue with slight operating margin expansion for FY22; and these should sustain its stable growth trend. 
It will increase focus on "big city" projects where there are more opportunities. We think its target of at least 11.8% new contract value growth in FY22 is conservative.
Reduction in losses at concessionary projects, improvement in operating cash flow and lowering of gearing levels all indicate that CCCC is moving in the right direction.


China Comm Const (1800 HK): Takeaways from Post-FY21 Result Call

China

China Railway Construction Corporation Ltd is a full service construction company.  The Company's services include construction operations, survey design and consulting. China Railway also has manufacturing operations, real estate operations, and logistics. The Company specializes in railway construction.

China Railway Construction Corp (1186 HK)

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China Railway Construction Corp (1186 HK)

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Key Takeaways from Post-1H22 Call

Healthy earnings growth is expected to sustain into 2H22 on the back of stronger revenue and cost control. New contract momentum will stay...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Accelerating New Contract Wins

CCCC has a remarkable 2Q22 with new contracts of Rmb371bn (+35.2% YoY, against just 4.9% in 1Q22). More contracts should be gained in 2H22 with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Stimulus: Beneficiaries from a Policy Perspective

Added to the beneficiaries from special purpose bonds issue, we identify more beneficiaries based on the latest government policies for stimulating...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Grossly Undervalued by the Market

CCCC's 1Q22 result reversed the trend of declining earnings momentum in 2H21, thanks to revenue recovery and improved cost dynamics. We take this...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Takeaways from Post-FY21 Result Call

We expect CCCC to maintain a stable earnings trend in FY22. Reduction in losses at concessionary projects, better operating cash flow and lower...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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