Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Property agents say more government support is needed.  But historically timing and scale of policy is hard to predict</li>
<li>POEs are still under pressure with bond default.  Latest case is KWG missing debt payment and potential cross default</li>
<li>Sector's valuation is almost at all time low and big part of risk is priced in.  But stocks can stay cheap forever.  Monitor the HY bond market as key indicator.</li>
</ul>


Property agents say more government support is needed.  But historically timing and scale of policy is hard to predict
POEs are still under pressure with bond default.  Latest case is KWG missing debt payment and potential cross default
Sector's valuation is almost at all time low and big part of risk is priced in.  But stocks can stay cheap forever.  Monitor the HY bond market as key indicator.


Short Note: China Prop - When Is a Good Time to Revisit the Sector? Still No Light at the Tunnel

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent, HKEx.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent, HKEx.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 28th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the inflows to be USD 201m and highlight flows for Meituan, China Construction Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 28th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the inflows to be USD 201m and highlight flows for Meituan, China Construction Bank.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 28th): Meituan, China Construction Bank

<ul>
<li>Full year 2022 annual results indicate that SOEs CRL and COLI are holding up, while smaller developers are still under liquidity pressure</li>
<li>In terms of the physical market, contract sales rebound strongly in Q1, with SOEs to gain market share over POEs</li>
<li>Sunac announced resume trading today (down 53%), but sector risk is still here.  Part of the risk is priced in at current valuation for sector, but SOEs are not cheap </li>
</ul>


Full year 2022 annual results indicate that SOEs CRL and COLI are holding up, while smaller developers are still under liquidity pressure
In terms of the physical market, contract sales rebound strongly in Q1, with SOEs to gain market share over POEs
Sunac announced resume trading today (down 53%), but sector risk is still here.  Part of the risk is priced in at current valuation for sector, but SOEs are not cheap 


Short Note: China Prop FY22 Results, Physical Market Uneven Recovery and Sunac’s Trading Resumption

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

China Overseas Land & Investment / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>A large triple bottom in 2021/2022 has confirmed a likely multi-year base and evolving multi-year uptrend. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction within the evolving uptrend.</li>
<li>A bullish weekly reversal pattern last week has confirmed that the 2023 correction is likely complete. Initial target at 23.20 (+11%), the break above which will target 27.35 (+30%).</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
A large triple bottom in 2021/2022 has confirmed a likely multi-year base and evolving multi-year uptrend. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction within the evolving uptrend.
A bullish weekly reversal pattern last week has confirmed that the 2023 correction is likely complete. Initial target at 23.20 (+11%), the break above which will target 27.35 (+30%).


China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) - Large Base in 2021/2022 - Material Upside in 2023

Hong Kong

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

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China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Short Note: China Prop - When Is a Good Time to Revisit the Sector? Still No Light at the Tunnel

Short Note - when should we re-visit China property sector? There seems to be no light at the tunnel. POEs continue to suffer while SOEs shine. ...

Jacob Cheng

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for China Mobile, SMIC, PetroChina, Sensetime, CNOOC, CCB, Tencent, HKEx.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 28th): Meituan, China Construction Bank

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Meituan, China Construction Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Short Note: China Prop FY22 Results, Physical Market Uneven Recovery and Sunac’s Trading Resumption

Implications from 1) China property FY2022 results, 2) physical market Q1 uneven recovery and 3) Sunac's trading resumption - safe bets are still...

Jacob Cheng

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) - Large Base in 2021/2022 - Material Upside in 2023

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)