Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$439bn and has been falling over the last 18 months due to a drop in the market.</li>
<li>In terms of short notional to issue market cap, the Information Technology, Materials, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors are up there, with Communication Services, Real Estate the least shorted.</li>
<li>Over the year, the largest shorts in terms of notional have been built on Xiaomi Corp, Meituan, JD.com, AIA Group Ltd, Postal Savings Bank of China, Orient Overseas, Techtronic Industries.</li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$439bn and has been falling over the last 18 months due to a drop in the market.
In terms of short notional to issue market cap, the Information Technology, Materials, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors are up there, with Communication Services, Real Estate the least shorted.
Over the year, the largest shorts in terms of notional have been built on Xiaomi Corp, Meituan, JD.com, AIA Group Ltd, Postal Savings Bank of China, Orient Overseas, Techtronic Industries.


Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Been Building Up?

Research from Quam Securities, Quam Securities

Quam Securities Research

Research from Quam Securities

Quam Securities

Since its inception in 1986, Quam Securities Limited (Quam Securities) has grown to become one of the few mid-tier securities brokerages in Hong Kong with global execution capabilities for both private and institutional clients. It boasts a well-established network in Greater China including Taiwan and in major world markets through the Global Alliance Partners (GAP). Quam Securities is well-positioned not only to harness and drive business within the China Tonghai International Financial Limited but also between China and the world markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We initiate coverage on the three Chinese telcos following their impressive 1H22 results.</li><li>We rate all three as BUYs with China Unicom (762 HK, BUY) and China Telecom (728 HK, BUY) as our top picks.</li><li>Despite their outperformance YTD, all three are still attractive in PE valuation with a range of 5.6-7.5x FY23 earnings and div yld of 9.5- 9.9%.</li></ul>

We initiate coverage on the three Chinese telcos following their impressive 1H22 results.We rate all three as BUYs with China Unicom (762 HK, BUY) and China Telecom (728 HK, BUY) as our top picks.Despite their outperformance YTD, all three are still attractive in PE valuation with a range of 5.6-7.5x FY23 earnings and div yld of 9.5- 9.9%.

TMT – Chinese Telcos - Growth Momentum Sustained

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Communication Services allocations among active China managers are at their lowest levels on record. Average weights have drifted below 10% for the first time since 2013.</li>
<li>Tencent was the driver of the declining sector weight, yet managers are keeping the faith.  Asian managers cut exposure to Bilibili and China Mobile yet increased NetEase and Baidu.</li>
<li>Versus the MSCI China index, active managers are underweight -6.69% on average, the largest among sector peers and offset by overweights in Industrials and Consumer Staples</li>
</ul>


Communication Services allocations among active China managers are at their lowest levels on record. Average weights have drifted below 10% for the first time since 2013.
Tencent was the driver of the declining sector weight, yet managers are keeping the faith.  Asian managers cut exposure to Bilibili and China Mobile yet increased NetEase and Baidu.
Versus the MSCI China index, active managers are underweight -6.69% on average, the largest among sector peers and offset by overweights in Industrials and Consumer Staples


China Communication Services: Lowest Exposure on Record

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> takes us to 73 index constituents.</li>
<li>Changes to the stocks, number of shares, float and capping result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.09% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$10,562m.</li>
<li>There are large shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a> and there could be some short covering from now to implementation.</li>
</ul>


The inclusion of China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) and Baidu (9888 HK) takes us to 73 index constituents.
Changes to the stocks, number of shares, float and capping result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.09% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$10,562m.
There are large shorts on Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) and there could be some short covering from now to implementation.


HSI Index Rebalance: Another Small Step Towards 80 Members, But BIG Impact

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for connect holding position as of Aug 12th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly inflows into Tencent, China Mobile and outflows from Meituan and Kuaishou.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for connect holding position as of Aug 12th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight weekly inflows into Tencent, China Mobile and outflows from Meituan and Kuaishou.


Hong Kong Connect Flows: Tencent, China Mobile, Meituan and Kuaishou

Hong Kong

China Mobile Limited provides telecommunication services. The Company offers wireline voice, broadband, roaming, and other related services. China Mobile serves customers in Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Mobile (941 HK)

Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Been Building Up?

Short notional in HK has decreased as a result of falling prices. Shorts have been increasing on a lot of stocks over the year. A rally could see...

Brian Freitas

TMT – Chinese Telcos - Growth Momentum Sustained

Despite their outperformance YTD, all three are still attractive in PE valuation with a range of 5.6-7.5x FY23 earnings and div yld of 9.5- 9.9%.

Quam Securities

China Communication Services: Lowest Exposure on Record

Communication Services allocations among active China managers are at their lowest levels on record. This analysis looks at the funds and the...

Steven Holden

HSI Index Rebalance: Another Small Step Towards 80 Members, But BIG Impact

There are 4 adds to the index in September - China Shenhua, Chow Tai Fook, Baidu & Hansoh Pharma. There will be big impact on some of the stocks...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Tencent, China Mobile, Meituan and Kuaishou

We highlight weekly southbound Hong Kong Connect inflows into Tencent, China Mobile and outflows from Meituan and Kuaishou.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)