Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Information Memorandum is out regarding the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>The shareholder meetings for both companies will be held on the 4 April, with a tentative listing date of the NewCo late September.</li>
<li>The IFAs for both companies are of the opinion that shareholders should approve the Amalgamation. </li>
</ul>


The Information Memorandum is out regarding the True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) / Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) merger.
The shareholder meetings for both companies will be held on the 4 April, with a tentative listing date of the NewCo late September.
The IFAs for both companies are of the opinion that shareholders should approve the Amalgamation. 


True/​DTAC Merger: Shareholder Meetings, IFA Opinion, & Expected Timetable

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Thailand's Trade Competition Commission said that only the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission has the authority to block the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp (TRUE TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>At issue, the government appears to be stonewalling the transition of the NBTC board, potentially abetting the merger. </li>
<li>Both True and DTAC are trading through their VTO terms, ignoring dividends.</li>
</ul>


Thailand's Trade Competition Commission said that only the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission has the authority to block the True Corp (TRUE TB) / Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) merger.
At issue, the government appears to be stonewalling the transition of the NBTC board, potentially abetting the merger. 
Both True and DTAC are trading through their VTO terms, ignoring dividends.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK) and Lenovo (992 HK). 
The largest outflows will be on HSBC Holdings (5 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK) and Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: March Rebalance Flows Post Capping

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Feb 25 based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were China Gas (384 HK), China Mobile (941 HK), Pop Mart (9992 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were China Mobile (941 HK), China Gas (384 HK), Kingdee (268 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Feb 25 based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were China Gas (384 HK), China Mobile (941 HK), Pop Mart (9992 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were China Mobile (941 HK), China Gas (384 HK), Kingdee (268 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks: China Gas, China Mobile, Pop Mart

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading around our fair value. Larger than expected special dividends from oil and telecom companies could provide some upside.</li>
<li>The HSCEI 2022/23 div steepener has dropped from -5 to -15 since our last Insight. We see further downside here and would look to add to shorts in the spread.</li>
<li>With rising interest rates, higher inflation, higher oil prices, a slowdown could lead to a rapid repricing of dividends and there will be opportunities to buy back the spread lower.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading around our fair value. Larger than expected special dividends from oil and telecom companies could provide some upside.
The HSCEI 2022/23 div steepener has dropped from -5 to -15 since our last Insight. We see further downside here and would look to add to shorts in the spread.
With rising interest rates, higher inflation, higher oil prices, a slowdown could lead to a rapid repricing of dividends and there will be opportunities to buy back the spread lower.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

Hong Kong

China Mobile Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides cellular telecommunications and related services in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong SAR.

Price Gauge
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China Mobile Ltd Spon Adr (CHL US)

True/DTAC Merger: Shareholder Meetings, IFA Opinion, & Expected Timetable

I would still put on a long DTAC short TRUE trade at the current price ratio, using a share ratio in the 9.7x range. Separately, you can buy True...

David Blennerhassett

NBTC To Decide On True/DTAC Merger

Long DTAC short TRUE trade at the current price ratio, using a share ratio in the 9.7x range. If the deal goes through, you are long deal risk at a...

David Blennerhassett

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: March Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indexes will use todays closing price to cap the stocks. The one-way trade across the HS, HSCEI and...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Buybacks: China Gas, China Mobile, Pop Mart

We highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares in HK in the past week were China Gas (384 HK), China Mobile (941 HK), Pop Mart...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

We see the HSCEI 2022 div futures trading in line with our estimates while there could be more downside to the 2022/23 div spread. We'd look to get...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

True/​DTAC Merger: Shareholder Meetings, IFA Opinion, & Expected Timetable

I would still put on a long DTAC short TRUE trade at the current price ratio, using a share ratio in the 9.7x range. Separately, you can buy True...

David Blennerhassett

NBTC To Decide On True/DTAC Merger

Long DTAC short TRUE trade at the current price ratio, using a share ratio in the 9.7x range. If the deal goes through, you are long deal risk at a...

David Blennerhassett

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: March Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indexes will use todays closing price to cap the stocks. The one-way trade across the HS, HSCEI and...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Buybacks: China Gas, China Mobile, Pop Mart

We highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares in HK in the past week were China Gas (384 HK), China Mobile (941 HK), Pop Mart...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

We see the HSCEI 2022 div futures trading in line with our estimates while there could be more downside to the 2022/23 div spread. We'd look to get...

Brian Freitas

True/DTAC Merger: Shareholder Meetings, IFA Opinion, & Expected Timetable