Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Allocations in Asian Financials stocks have fallen to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active portfolios this year.</li>
<li>Fund managers move to underweight following $3bn in net outflows.</li>
<li>Managers exit ASEAN banks, weights drop in China banks. </li>
<li>On a stock level, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> ,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> (-7.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> are the hardest hit.</li>
</ul>


Allocations in Asian Financials stocks have fallen to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active portfolios this year.
Fund managers move to underweight following $3bn in net outflows.
Managers exit ASEAN banks, weights drop in China banks. 
On a stock level, ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) ,  Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) (-7.2%) and Indusind Bank (IIB IN) are the hardest hit.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p>The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
<p>On average, </p>
<p>The first sector is <strong>Consumer</strong>, where H/A spreads widened on average 2.7% for the week, more than cancelling out the average 1.7% spread narrowing last week. With the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>, this happened as the H-shares rose strongly and the A-Shares rose even more strongly.  </p>
<p>Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were significant net sellers during the week in both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> where the net selling activity amounted to 15.5% and 22% of volume respectively. </p>
<p>Hisense remains at the overbought end of the 52-week range. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> are now at 52-week wides. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week's recommendation was to take off Hisense and the H-share fell 7.3% while the spread widened 0.7%. It is still probably worth unwinding. At this point, Great Wall and Guangzhou are worth a buy on a spread basis.</p>
</div>
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<p>For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.</p>
</div>


The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...



H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. 

On average, 
The first sector is Consumer, where H/A spreads widened on average 2.7% for the week, more than cancelling out the average 1.7% spread narrowing last week. With the exception of Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK), this happened as the H-shares rose strongly and the A-Shares rose even more strongly.  
Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were significant net sellers during the week in both Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) and Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) where the net selling activity amounted to 15.5% and 22% of volume respectively. 
Hisense remains at the overbought end of the 52-week range. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) are now at 52-week wides. 

Last week's recommendation was to take off Hisense and the H-share fell 7.3% while the spread widened 0.7%. It is still probably worth unwinding. At this point, Great Wall and Guangzhou are worth a buy on a spread basis.





For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.


Quiddity Weekly H/​A: Share Spread Monitor 23 Oct 2020

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<p> <strong><em>*Way Too Early Provision Reduction: </em></strong>Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], the Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] banking subsidiary, reported 3Q20 net income of CNY 8.7 bn – increasing CNY 3.6 bn or 70% linked quarter. One factor, and one factor alone, was responsible for the increase  - provisions were pre-emptively reduced CNY 6.7 bn (29.5%) over the period despite a true decrease in credit risk; </p><p> <strong><em>*Credit Is WEAKER: </em></strong>Net new NPLs have increased CNY 23.0 bn linked quarter or a massive 223.1% on an annualized basis. Assuming the credit break in the PAB portfolio holds – which it likely will given the economic weakness attributed to COVID-19 – reserves would appear light by CNY 178 bn if we assume a 2x NPL ratio. This shortfall represents 62% of stated equity; and</p><p> <em><strong>*Fundamentally Challenged Still:</strong></em> Despite the Investor Day cheerleading session, Ping An P&amp;C operating profits declined CNY 2.6 bn (29.2%) HOH in 1H20, as the overall combined ratio eroded 1.5% to 98.1% due primarily to continued weakness within the credit insurance unit where the combined ratio came in at 125.6% (up 32.4%). The credit insurance segment reported a CNY 3.5 bn underwriting loss, due to defaults on underlying loans. </p>

 *Way Too Early Provision Reduction: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], the Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] banking subsidiary, reported 3Q20 net income of CNY 8.7 bn – increasing CNY 3.6 bn or 70% linked quarter. One factor, and one factor alone, was responsible for the increase  - provisions were pre-emptively reduced CNY 6.7 bn (29.5%) over the period despite a true decrease in credit risk;  *Credit Is WEAKER: Net new NPLs have increased CNY 23.0 bn linked quarter or a massive 223.1% on an annualized basis. Assuming the credit break in the PAB portfolio holds – which it likely will given the economic weakness attributed to COVID-19 – reserves would appear light by CNY 178 bn if we assume a 2x NPL ratio. This shortfall represents 62% of stated equity; and *Fundamentally Challenged Still: Despite the Investor Day cheerleading session, Ping An P&amp;C operating profits declined CNY 2.6 bn (29.2%) HOH in 1H20, as the overall combined ratio eroded 1.5% to 98.1% due primarily to continued weakness within the credit insurance unit where the combined ratio came in at 125.6% (up 32.4%). The credit insurance segment reported a CNY 3.5 bn underwriting loss, due to defaults on underlying loans. 

Ping An Insurance – Bank Fundamentals Worsening

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Weihai City Commercial Bank / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weihai-city-commercial-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29181:1" rel="noopener">Weihai City Commercial Bank (WECCBZ CH)</a> (WCCB) raised around US$370 via its Hong Kong listing. </p></div><div><p>WCCB is the third largest city commercial bank headquartered in Shandong Province, in terms of total assets, deposits and loans, as of Jun 2019. It is headquartered in Weihai City in Shandong Province. Its principal business includes corporate banking, retail banking and financial markets.</p></div><div><p>Over FY17-19, WCCB’s loans grew at 17.9% CAGR, while total income growth, at 12.5% CAGR, and pre-provision operating profit expanded at 18.8% CAGR. While WCCB has registered decent asset and earnings growth, the bank seems to be in the middle of a makeover, with investment book falling and loan book growing, deposit mix shifting etc. </p></div><div><p>I looked at some of the above points in my previous note, links to which are below. In this note, I’ll talk about the subscription levels and provide a table with implied valuation at different share price levels.</p></div><div><p><strong>Our previous coverage of the IPO:</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li dir="ltr"><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/weihai-city-commercial-bank-pre-ipo-more-of-an-asset-manager-rather-than-a-lender" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Weihai City Commercial Bank Pre-IPO - More of an asset manager rather than a lender</a></p></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/weihai-city-commercial-bank-ipo-needs-to-trade-30-50-lower-to-be-in-line-with-peers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Weihai City Commercial Bank IPO - Needs to Trade 30-50% Lower to Be In-Line with Peers</a></li>
</ul></div>

Weihai City Commercial Bank (WECCBZ CH) (WCCB) raised around US$370 via its Hong Kong listing. WCCB is the third largest city commercial bank headquartered in Shandong Province, in terms of total assets, deposits and loans, as of Jun 2019. It is headquartered in Weihai City in Shandong Province. Its principal business includes corporate banking, retail banking and financial markets.Over FY17-19, WCCB’s loans grew at 17.9% CAGR, while total income growth, at 12.5% CAGR, and pre-provision operating profit expanded at 18.8% CAGR. While WCCB has registered decent asset and earnings growth, the bank seems to be in the middle of a makeover, with investment book falling and loan book growing, deposit mix shifting etc. I looked at some of the above points in my previous note, links to which are below. In this note, I’ll talk about the subscription levels and provide a table with implied valuation at different share price levels.Our previous coverage of the IPO:
Weihai City Commercial Bank Pre-IPO - More of an asset manager rather than a lender
Weihai City Commercial Bank IPO - Needs to Trade 30-50% Lower to Be In-Line with Peers


Weihai City Commercial Bank IPO Trading - Lacks Demand but Tightly Allocated

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p>There has been some press recently on the value of stocks short sold in China reaching new records. So we decided to take a look at the margin securities loan and figure out if there was something more to it than meets the eye, or it was just a part of the market evolving and developing as China tries to open up new products to investors.</p><p>While it is true that short notional (as measured by the margin securities on loan) has increased steadily (and significantly) over the last year, there is nothing sinister to it as the short notional is tiny compared to the market capitalisation of the stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen composite indices. Short notional to market cap is around 0.13% compared to 1.2% for Hong Kong, indicating that there is room for short notional to increase without becoming too large as a percentage of the market.</p><p>Additionally, a lot of the short interest is in index stocks that have listed index futures which could be indicative of arbitrage related activity, while there is also a lot of short interest in stocks where the A-shares are trading at or near their highs versus the H-shares.</p>

There has been some press recently on the value of stocks short sold in China reaching new records. So we decided to take a look at the margin securities loan and figure out if there was something more to it than meets the eye, or it was just a part of the market evolving and developing as China tries to open up new products to investors.While it is true that short notional (as measured by the margin securities on loan) has increased steadily (and significantly) over the last year, there is nothing sinister to it as the short notional is tiny compared to the market capitalisation of the stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen composite indices. Short notional to market cap is around 0.13% compared to 1.2% for Hong Kong, indicating that there is room for short notional to increase without becoming too large as a percentage of the market.Additionally, a lot of the short interest is in index stocks that have listed index futures which could be indicative of arbitrage related activity, while there is also a lot of short interest in stocks where the A-shares are trading at or near their highs versus the H-shares.

Short Selling in China: Rising, But Not Material (Yet)

China

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial bank. The Company provides deposits, loans, wealth management, asset custody, finance leasing, investment banking, and other banking services. China Merchants Bank conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH)

Asia Ex-Japan Financials: Long Drop

Allocations in Financial stocks drop to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active funds. Financials now key underweight holding, led by selling in the...

Steven Holden

Ping An Insurance – Bank Fundamentals Worsening

PING AN INSURANCE: PING AN BANK Reported A Completely Manufactured 3Q20 Earnings Result, Cutting Provisions Despite Substantially Weaker Credit

Thomas J. Monaco

Weihai City Commercial Bank IPO Trading - Lacks Demand but Tightly Allocated

Weihai City Commercial Bank (WECCBZ CH) (WCCB) aims to raise around US$397 via its Hong Kong listing. This is around half the size of what was...

Sumeet Singh

Short Selling in China: Rising, But Not Material (Yet)

There has been some press recently on the value of stocks short sold in China reaching new records.

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asia Ex-Japan Financials: Long Drop

Allocations in Financial stocks drop to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active funds. Financials now key underweight holding, led by selling in the...

Steven Holden

Quiddity Weekly H/​A: Share Spread Monitor 23 Oct 2020

Quiddity H/A Spread Monitor for the week ending 23 October 2020. Spreads widened in Consumer, narrowed in every other sector. Southbound were...

Travis Lundy

Ping An Insurance – Bank Fundamentals Worsening

PING AN INSURANCE: PING AN BANK Reported A Completely Manufactured 3Q20 Earnings Result, Cutting Provisions Despite Substantially Weaker Credit

Thomas J. Monaco

Weihai City Commercial Bank IPO Trading - Lacks Demand but Tightly Allocated

Weihai City Commercial Bank (WECCBZ CH) (WCCB) aims to raise around US$397 via its Hong Kong listing. This is around half the size of what was...

Sumeet Singh

Short Selling in China: Rising, But Not Material (Yet)

There has been some press recently on the value of stocks short sold in China reaching new records.

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 23 Oct 2020