Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Yashili International Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu (2319 HK)</a> is in discussions regarding its holdings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili (1230 HK)</a> which may result in a number of Potential Transactions, and may include a pre-conditional privatisation offer.</li>
<li>The Potential Offer would involve a cancellation price of HK$1.20/share, a 31.9% premium to last close, and a 161% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The recent privatisation of key peer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnutria-dairy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13799:1" rel="noopener">Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)</a> provides a guideline to the timeline from here.</li>
</ul>



China Mengniu (2319 HK) is in discussions regarding its holdings in Yashili (1230 HK) which may result in a number of Potential Transactions, and may include a pre-conditional privatisation offer.
The Potential Offer would involve a cancellation price of HK$1.20/share, a 31.9% premium to last close, and a 161% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The recent privatisation of key peer Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK) provides a guideline to the timeline from here.


Yashili (1230 HK): Possible Mengniu Offer Amid Exchange Rights And Phantom Shares

<ul>
<li>Infant formula play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> is currently suspended "pursuant to The Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers".</li>
<li>Shares closed up 98% yesterday, on clear news leakage, before shares were suspended. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a> holds 51.04% with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danone-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21403:1" rel="noopener">Danone SA (BN FP)</a> another 25%.  </li>
<li>This trading halt follows the recent successful Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnutria-dairy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13799:1" rel="noopener">Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)</a>, one of Yashili's key peers.</li>
</ul>


Infant formula play Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) is currently suspended "pursuant to The Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers".
Shares closed up 98% yesterday, on clear news leakage, before shares were suspended. China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) holds 51.04% with Danone SA (BN FP) another 25%.  
This trading halt follows the recent successful Offer for Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK), one of Yashili's key peers.


Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over the past 3 years, and implemented in its current state for 18 months, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, set out in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over the past 3 years, and implemented in its current state for 18 months, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, set out in detail below.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Cisarua Mountain Dairy / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy (1939092D IJ)</a>/Cimory is a dairy products and consumer foods company in Indonesia. It is the market leader in the yoghurt industry in Indonesia. </li>
<li>Cimory is seeking to raise up to IDR3,761 billion ($265 million) by selling 15% of its issued capital at an IPO price range of IDR2,780-3,160 per share. </li>
<li>The fundamentals are attractive as Cimory is delivering strong growth in both its operating segments, rising margins and cash generation. Overall, we believe that Cimory is worth a look.</li>
</ul>



Cisarua Mountain Dairy (1939092D IJ)/Cimory is a dairy products and consumer foods company in Indonesia. It is the market leader in the yoghurt industry in Indonesia. 
Cimory is seeking to raise up to IDR3,761 billion ($265 million) by selling 15% of its issued capital at an IPO price range of IDR2,780-3,160 per share. 
The fundamentals are attractive as Cimory is delivering strong growth in both its operating segments, rising margins and cash generation. Overall, we believe that Cimory is worth a look.


Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) IPO Initiation: Creamy

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnutria-dairy-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13799:1" rel="noopener">Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK)</a> is an international high-end dairy and nutrition products company with an entire business chain of raw milk collection, R&amp;D, production, and end-market sales. Ausnutria is the fifth largest infant formula player in China with a 6.3% market share in 2020.   As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ausnutria-in-trading-halt-will-yili-lob-an-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:58863" rel="noopener">Ausnutria in Trading Halt - Will Yili Lob an Offer?</a>,  Ausnutria entered a trading halt on 12 October pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Earlier, on 1 October, Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)</a> is exploring a potential takeover of Ausnutria. We noted that Yili is the likely suitor as it has a strategy to increase its scale in the milk powder business through mergers and acquisitions.Today, Ausnutria announced a share purchase and subscription agreement with Yili. Yili has entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire 530.8 million shares which represent 30.89% of the outstanding shares at a purchase price is HK$10.06 per sale share. Second, Yili has also entered into a subscription agreement to purchase 90.0 newly issued shares at a purchase price of HK$10.06 per subscription share. The subscription agreement requires EGM approval while both agreements require SAMR approval.The completion of the two agreements will result in Yili owning 34.33% of the enlarged share capital and voting rights, which will trigger a mandatory share offer under Rule 26.1 of the Takeovers Code. The potential MGO price of HK$10.06 per share represents a premium of 13.67% over the closing price of HK$8.85 per share on the last trading date (11 October prior to the trading halt) and a premium of 25.1% over the closing price of HK$8.04 per share on the unaffected date (30 September prior to the Bloomberg article).The mandatory share offer is conditional on the offeror and parties acting in concert with it holding more than 50% of the voting rights. The offeror has received irrecovables not to accept the offer which represents 24.23% of the enlarged share capital. <div class="content-highlight">The 50%+ voting threshold will be satisfied if Yili's MGO secures an additional 283 million shares. Due to the irrecovables not to accept, 37.5% of public shareholders (assuming other directors accept the offer) will need to accept the MGO for it to become unconditional. As the MGO price implies a modest premium to peer multiples and long-term share prices, we think achieving the 50%+ voting threshold could be a tough task. We also note that Yili has stated that it has no intention to privatize Ausnutria. </div>

Ausnutria Dairy Corp (1717 HK) is an international high-end dairy and nutrition products company with an entire business chain of raw milk collection, R&amp;D, production, and end-market sales. Ausnutria is the fifth largest infant formula player in China with a 6.3% market share in 2020.   As discussed in Ausnutria in Trading Halt - Will Yili Lob an Offer?,  Ausnutria entered a trading halt on 12 October pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Earlier, on 1 October, Bloomberg reported that Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH) is exploring a potential takeover of Ausnutria. We noted that Yili is the likely suitor as it has a strategy to increase its scale in the milk powder business through mergers and acquisitions.Today, Ausnutria announced a share purchase and subscription agreement with Yili. Yili has entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire 530.8 million shares which represent 30.89% of the outstanding shares at a purchase price is HK$10.06 per sale share. Second, Yili has also entered into a subscription agreement to purchase 90.0 newly issued shares at a purchase price of HK$10.06 per subscription share. The subscription agreement requires EGM approval while both agreements require SAMR approval.The completion of the two agreements will result in Yili owning 34.33% of the enlarged share capital and voting rights, which will trigger a mandatory share offer under Rule 26.1 of the Takeovers Code. The potential MGO price of HK$10.06 per share represents a premium of 13.67% over the closing price of HK$8.85 per share on the last trading date (11 October prior to the trading halt) and a premium of 25.1% over the closing price of HK$8.04 per share on the unaffected date (30 September prior to the Bloomberg article).The mandatory share offer is conditional on the offeror and parties acting in concert with it holding more than 50% of the voting rights. The offeror has received irrecovables not to accept the offer which represents 24.23% of the enlarged share capital. The 50%+ voting threshold will be satisfied if Yili's MGO secures an additional 283 million shares. Due to the irrecovables not to accept, 37.5% of public shareholders (assuming other directors accept the offer) will need to accept the MGO for it to become unconditional. As the MGO price implies a modest premium to peer multiples and long-term share prices, we think achieving the 50%+ voting threshold could be a tough task. We also note that Yili has stated that it has no intention to privatize Ausnutria. 

Ausnutria’s Potential Conditional MGO from Yili

China

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes quality dairy products in China. The principal products are liquid milk products, ice cream, and other dairy products, such as milk powder. The Company markets its products under its primary MENGNIU core brand.

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China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)

Yashili (1230 HK): Possible Mengniu Offer Amid Exchange Rights And Phantom Shares

I'd be a buyer here. There appears to be a directive to take these milk formula companies private. Mengniu is state-backed, and this is not a large...

David Blennerhassett

Yashili (1230 HK): More Formula Fortune?

There is, as yet, no definitive Offer. However, the suspension announcement and the large share price movement suggest an Offer is imminent. Or at...

David Blennerhassett

Screening for GEMs: December 2021

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) IPO Initiation: Creamy

Cimory is seeking to raise up to $265 m. The initial offer period will run from 10 to 17 November. Cimory is delivering strong growth, rising...

Arun George

Ausnutria’s Potential Conditional MGO from Yili

The completion of the agreements will result in Yili owning 34.33% voting rights, triggering an MGO at HK$10.06 per share. However, we think...

Arun George

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