Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara (SBM AU)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> merger; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acotec-scientific-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32176:1" rel="noopener">Acotec (6669 HK)</a>'s Offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/okk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15496:1" rel="noopener">Okk (6205 JP)</a>'s Offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">MinRes (MIN AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest (NWE AU)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma: the St Barbara (SBM AU)/ Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) merger; Acotec (6669 HK)'s Offer, Okk (6205 JP)'s Offer, MinRes (MIN AU)/Norwest (NWE AU) merger.
Key updates took place for: Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), and Toyo Construction (1890 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: St Barbara/Genesis, Tyro, Yashili, Acotec, Okk Corp/Nidec

Yashili International Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 6 May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> announced a pre-conditional Offer, by way of a Scheme, from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Pre-Conditions concern three sales and purchase agreements, all of which Yashili shareholders voted through on the 16 August.</li>
<li>From a regulatory standpoint, various conditions attached to Dumex China remain outstanding. But the wording in the most recent monthly update suggests the process is getting to the pointy end.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 6 May, Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer, by way of a Scheme, from China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK).
Pre-Conditions concern three sales and purchase agreements, all of which Yashili shareholders voted through on the 16 August.
From a regulatory standpoint, various conditions attached to Dumex China remain outstanding. But the wording in the most recent monthly update suggests the process is getting to the pointy end.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>'s latest monthly update suggests that the remaining pre-condition, the 25% Yashili acquisition, is entering the final stages towards being satisfied. </li>
<li>The wording “in the course of processing the relevant application” suggests that the government authorities will grant the new registration certificate, which should be received shortly.</li>
<li>The gross spread is 6.2%. The downside is low as both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danone-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21403:1" rel="noopener">Danone SA (BN FP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a> can waive conditions to satisfy the pre-condition.</li>
</ul>



Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)'s latest monthly update suggests that the remaining pre-condition, the 25% Yashili acquisition, is entering the final stages towards being satisfied. 
The wording “in the course of processing the relevant application” suggests that the government authorities will grant the new registration certificate, which should be received shortly.
The gross spread is 6.2%. The downside is low as both Danone SA (BN FP) and China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) can waive conditions to satisfy the pre-condition.


Yashili (1230 HK): Monthly Update Suggests that Pre-Condition Satisfaction in the Final Leg

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bigtincan-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29067:1" rel="noopener">Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, Origin Energy. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chip-eng-seng-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6441:1" rel="noopener">Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uzabase-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27798:1" rel="noopener">Uzabase Inc (3966 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elmo-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24342:1" rel="noopener">Elmo Software (ELO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Origin Energy. 
Lowest spreads  Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Warrego Energy (WGO AU), Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP), Uzabase Inc (3966 JP), Elmo Software (ELO AU), OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU). 



Merger Arb Mondays (12 Dec) - Nitro, Tyro, Bigtincan, Warrego, Genex, Elmo, Golden Energy

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period for the March rebalance, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.64% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.02bn with passives needing to buy 1x ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy</a> and selling 1.7x ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe</a>.</li>
<li>The change will lead to an increase in the fair value of the HSCEI 2023 dividend futures by over 3 DIPS. Could be more if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua</a> pays a special.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period for the March rebalance, we see China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK) replacing China Feihe (6186 HK) in the HSCEI INDEX.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.64% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.02bn with passives needing to buy 1x ADV on China Shenhua Energy and selling 1.7x ADV on China Feihe.
The change will lead to an increase in the fair value of the HSCEI 2023 dividend futures by over 3 DIPS. Could be more if China Shenhua pays a special.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Shenhua Energy (1088) Could Replace China Feihe (6186)

China

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes quality dairy products in China. The principal products are liquid milk products, ice cream, and other dairy products, such as milk powder. The Company markets its products under its primary MENGNIU core brand.

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China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: St Barbara/Genesis, Tyro, Yashili, Acotec, Okk Corp/Nidec

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Yashili/Mengniu: Are We There Yet?

The Dumex China sale should be straightforward, but appears to be held up by bureaucratic red tape. However, there is every indication the sale is,...

David Blennerhassett

Yashili (1230 HK): Monthly Update Suggests that Pre-Condition Satisfaction in the Final Leg

The wording of the update suggests that the pre-condition should be satisfied soon. The downside is low as both Danone and Mengniu can waive...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (12 Dec) - Nitro, Tyro, Bigtincan, Warrego, Genex, Elmo, Golden Energy

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (58.6%), Alliance Aviation (54.7%), Genex (47.1%), Bigtincan (41.6%), Golden Energy (27.2%), Origin...

Arun George

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Shenhua Energy (1088) Could Replace China Feihe (6186)

China Shenhua could replace China Feihe in March. Short interest has been dropping on both stocks and passives need to trade 1-2x ADV on the...

Brian Freitas

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