Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/213/768/original/image_768460236451623962508577.png?1623962508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="213768"></figure>

Source: Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Related Insights
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-consumers-remain-on-the-sidelines-as-their-home-equity-grows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53210" rel="noopener">China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/glut-and-famine-we-might-see-snow-in-china-this-summer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52840" rel="noopener">Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-ppi-peaks-while-cpi-eases-tightening-fears" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52778" rel="noopener">China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-exports-disappoint-but-it-s-still-early-in-the-game" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52728" rel="noopener">China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/glut-and-famine-china-s-monetary-conditions-a-notch-tighter-in-may" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51799" rel="noopener">Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/icbc-the-bond-identity-a-zero-growth-dividend-discount-story" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51463" rel="noopener">ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story</a> 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/boc-aviation-2588-hk-the-stars-don-t-look-bigger-but-they-do-look-brighter" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52283" rel="noopener">BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter</a>

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).



Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook





Source: Our analysis




Related Insights
China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 
Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 
China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 
China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 
Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May 
ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 
BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Smoore International Holdings / Event-Driven

Hang Seng Indexes should announce the results of the September 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 13 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.The review period for the September rebalance ends on 30 June and stocks that have at least 3 month of trading history by the review meeting date are eligible for inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>.With the major capping changes scheduled to be completed at the June rebalance tomorrow, there could be up to 8 inclusions at the September review while still keeping the one-way index turnover lower than 5%. The actual number of inclusions could be lower to spread the turnover over the next few reviews.We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> as higher probability inclusions in the index, while there is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-glass-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11940:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Glass Holdings (868 HK)</a> being included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a> could be added to increase the coverage of Group 5 where Utilities are a part. This is less of a priority though with the market cap coverage of the group in excess of 60% as compared to the other groups that are much lower.There may not be any deletions at the current time. If the Index Committee decides to delete stocks, the two names most at risk are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-life-insurance-co-ltd-9f877d22-7cf7-4b00-b525-cec71139f369" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5794:1" rel="noopener">China Life Insurance Co H (2628 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-intl-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK)</a>.These changes will increase the market cap coverage of the index from 60.1% to 64.3% and the turnover coverage from 53.75% to 57.75%. One-way index turnover is estimated at 4.79% and would result in a one-way trade of HK$9.2bn.

Hang Seng Indexes should announce the results of the September 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 13 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.The review period for the September rebalance ends on 30 June and stocks that have at least 3 month of trading history by the review meeting date are eligible for inclusion in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX).With the major capping changes scheduled to be completed at the June rebalance tomorrow, there could be up to 8 inclusions at the September review while still keeping the one-way index turnover lower than 5%. The actual number of inclusions could be lower to spread the turnover over the next few reviews.We see JD Health (6618 HK), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK), Smoore International (6969 HK), Fosun International (656 HK) and Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) as higher probability inclusions in the index, while there is a lower probability of JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) and Xinyi Glass Holdings (868 HK) being included in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX).China Gas Holdings (384 HK) could be added to increase the coverage of Group 5 where Utilities are a part. This is less of a priority though with the market cap coverage of the group in excess of 60% as compared to the other groups that are much lower.There may not be any deletions at the current time. If the Index Committee decides to delete stocks, the two names most at risk are China Life Insurance Co H (2628 HK) and Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK).These changes will increase the market cap coverage of the index from 60.1% to 64.3% and the turnover coverage from 53.75% to 57.75%. One-way index turnover is estimated at 4.79% and would result in a one-way trade of HK$9.2bn.

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions in September

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Asian Business Doing Well:Total APE in 1Q21 for Asia and Africa amounted to USD 1.2 bn, increasing USD 177 mn (17.4%) YOY. New business value for Asia and Africa improved USD 102 mn (20.3%) YOY. VONB margins for Asia and Africa improve 3% YOY to 52% at 1Q21. Mainland China delivered solid growth during the quarter, driven by an improved sales campaign and low comparative results in 1Q20; and  *No Action On Jackson: The key disappointment comes from the delay of its Jackson National Life (JNL), US subsidiary, demerger which has now been pushed out until sometime in 2H21 (from 1H21) – even then we don’t have confidence this deal will get done. Management did mention that regulatory approval from Michigan and New York has been obtained, however, a review of the updated Form 10 is ongoing.

*Asian Business Doing Well:Total APE in 1Q21 for Asia and Africa amounted to USD 1.2 bn, increasing USD 177 mn (17.4%) YOY. New business value for Asia and Africa improved USD 102 mn (20.3%) YOY. VONB margins for Asia and Africa improve 3% YOY to 52% at 1Q21. Mainland China delivered solid growth during the quarter, driven by an improved sales campaign and low comparative results in 1Q20; and  *No Action On Jackson: The key disappointment comes from the delay of its Jackson National Life (JNL), US subsidiary, demerger which has now been pushed out until sometime in 2H21 (from 1H21) – even then we don’t have confidence this deal will get done. Management did mention that regulatory approval from Michigan and New York has been obtained, however, a review of the updated Form 10 is ongoing. 

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

New China Life Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiss-re-ag-1f83dcbc-730e-46fa-82f2-bfe7e8e361a1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27914:1" rel="noopener">Swiss Re AG (SREN SW)</a> plans to raise around US$290m via selling all of its remaining stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-china-life-insurance-c-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:377:1" rel="noopener">New China Life Insurance (1336 HK)</a>. This is not the first selldown by the company. It last sold a similar sized stake in Oct 2017, which we covered in our note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/new-china-life-placement-picked-the-bottom-for-buying-hopefully-not-the-top-for-selling" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New China Life Placement - Picked the Bottom for Buying, Hopefully Not the Top for Selling</a>.That deal ended up doing well.

Swiss Re AG (SREN SW) plans to raise around US$290m via selling all of its remaining stake in New China Life Insurance (1336 HK). This is not the first selldown by the company. It last sold a similar sized stake in Oct 2017, which we covered in our note, New China Life Placement - Picked the Bottom for Buying, Hopefully Not the Top for Selling.That deal ended up doing well.

New China Life Placement - Clean-Up Helps, past Deal Did Well

*Better, But Off A Low Base: AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] released its limited set of 1Q21 results. AIA’s overall Value of New Business (VONB) improved 404 or 62.3% on a linked quarter basis due to a combination of higher new sales volume (ANP up 422 or 32.9%) and an VONB margin expansion of 11.7% to 61.6% - closing in on pre-Covid levels and driven by mainland China, Thailand, and Malaysia; and* China And Hong Kong Risks Still Need To Be Addressed: Concerned about weakening organic growth, AIA has gone on a deal-making spree: Bank of East Asia’s (23.HK) [BEA] wholly-owned life insurance unit, BEA Life; an exclusive 15-year bancassurance relationship with BEA; acquisition of Blue Cross (Asia-Pacific) Insurance’s underwritten closed life insurance; a strategic digital partnership with ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance’ (6060.HK) [ZhongAn]; and received CBIRC approval to restructure its Shanghai-based life insurance branch into a wholly-owned subsidiary. In addition to the massive managerial distractions with so many deals at one time, there are challenges of bogusly rated AAA mainland Chinese bonds; no end in sight with its flailing Hong Kong flagship; and getting the BEA Life team on the same with AIA Hong Kong.

*Better, But Off A Low Base: AIA Group (1299.HK) [AIA] released its limited set of 1Q21 results. AIA’s overall Value of New Business (VONB) improved 404 or 62.3% on a linked quarter basis due to a combination of higher new sales volume (ANP up 422 or 32.9%) and an VONB margin expansion of 11.7% to 61.6% - closing in on pre-Covid levels and driven by mainland China, Thailand, and Malaysia; and* China And Hong Kong Risks Still Need To Be Addressed: Concerned about weakening organic growth, AIA has gone on a deal-making spree: Bank of East Asia’s (23.HK) [BEA] wholly-owned life insurance unit, BEA Life; an exclusive 15-year bancassurance relationship with BEA; acquisition of Blue Cross (Asia-Pacific) Insurance’s underwritten closed life insurance; a strategic digital partnership with ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance’ (6060.HK) [ZhongAn]; and received CBIRC approval to restructure its Shanghai-based life insurance branch into a wholly-owned subsidiary. In addition to the massive managerial distractions with so many deals at one time, there are challenges of bogusly rated AAA mainland Chinese bonds; no end in sight with its flailing Hong Kong flagship; and getting the BEA Life team on the same with AIA Hong Kong. 

China

China Life Insurance Company Ltd. offers a wide range of life, accident, and health insurance products and services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Life Insurance Co H (2628 HK)

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Our Silver Linings Playbook outlines our views on the China financials names that are most likely to remain resilient in the face of macro...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions in September

There could be 8 additions to the HSI at the September review to take the index members up to 66. Turnover will be less than 5% and there are a lot...

Brian Freitas

Prudential Plc – Asian Pureplay Delay

PRUDENTIAL: Total APE in 1Q21 for Asia and Africa increased 17.4% YOY, with margins improving 3% to 52%. The key disappointment is the delay of its...

Thomas J. Monaco

New China Life Placement - Clean-Up Helps, past Deal Did Well

Swiss Re AG plans to raise around US$290m via selling all of its remaining stake in New China Life Insurance (1336 HK). This is not the first...

Sumeet Singh

AIA Group – Risks Remain High

AIA GROUP: AIA 1Q21 results with VONB improving 62.3% QOQ due to higher sales volume and VONB margin expansion driven by China, Thailand, and...

Thomas J. Monaco

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)