Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 21st.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$4,305.1 million, led by consumer staples, financials, and offset by energy, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BOE, Moutai, Ping An, Yili,  China Tourism, Longi Green.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 21st.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$4,305.1 million, led by consumer staples, financials, and offset by energy, utilities.
We highlight flows for BOE, Moutai, Ping An, Yili,  China Tourism, Longi Green.


Northbound Flows (Oct 21st): BOE, Moutai, Ping An, Yili, China Tourism, Longi Green

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 130.2% as of Oct 14th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 5.3ppt weeok on week, led by information technology, real estate, materials and offset by communication services, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CMB, China Pacific, Remegen, Tigermed, Shanghai Fudan, YOFC, GWM, CGS.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 130.2% as of Oct 14th.
The average A-H premium changed by 5.3ppt weeok on week, led by information technology, real estate, materials and offset by communication services, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CMB, China Pacific, Remegen, Tigermed, Shanghai Fudan, YOFC, GWM, CGS.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 14th): CMB, China Pacific, Remegen, Tigermed, Shanghai Fudan, YOFC, GWM, CGS

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>A non-eventful 3Q. While earnings cuts and de-ratings have taken place and reset market expectation across 1H results, in our view, earnings volatility for 3Q is unlikely to be drastic.</li><li>For items that we monitored, our channel checks suggested that sales momentum was largely on track to us - low-teen growth for CRB, double-digit growth for Nongfu, and particularly sequential double- digit recovery for Mengniu and Feihe.</li><li>Separately, the lockdown of Hainan since August could mean downside revision potential for CTGDF despite a well-maintained GPM.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

A non-eventful 3Q. While earnings cuts and de-ratings have taken place and reset market expectation across 1H results, in our view, earnings volatility for 3Q is unlikely to be drastic.For items that we monitored, our channel checks suggested that sales momentum was largely on track to us - low-teen growth for CRB, double-digit growth for Nongfu, and particularly sequential double- digit recovery for Mengniu and Feihe.Separately, the lockdown of Hainan since August could mean downside revision potential for CTGDF despite a well-maintained GPM.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Addressing Recent Investors’ Concerns

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.</li>
<li>Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.
Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 125.5% as of Sep 30th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 6.5ppt weeok on week, led by consumer staples, industrials, communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Ping An, Bankcomm, Angang Steel, Remegen, Qingdao Port, China Tourism, Asymchem Lab, Flat Glass.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 125.5% as of Sep 30th.
The average A-H premium changed by 6.5ppt weeok on week, led by consumer staples, industrials, communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Ping An, Bankcomm, Angang Steel, Remegen, Qingdao Port, China Tourism, Asymchem Lab, Flat Glass.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 30th): China Tourism at New Low Since Listing

China

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

Northbound Flows (Oct 21st): BOE, Moutai, Ping An, Yili, China Tourism, Longi Green

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BOE, Moutai, Ping An, Yili, China Tourism, Longi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 14th): CMB, China Pacific, Remegen, Tigermed, Shanghai Fudan, YOFC, GWM, CGS

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CMB, China Pacific, Remegen, Tigermed, Shanghai Fudan, YOFC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Consumer – Addressing Recent Investors’ Concerns

A non-eventful 3Q. While earnings cuts and de-ratings have taken place and reset market expectation across 1H results, in our view, earnings...

CMB International

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

There could be 3 adds in December while there will be MANY more changes in March. The adds should outnumber the deletes, but there will be many...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 30th): China Tourism at New Low Since Listing

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Ping An, Bankcomm, Angang Steel, Remegen, Qingdao Port,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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