Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Galaxy Securities (H) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Everything changed this past week. China has launched major public stimulus programs which seem open-ended. They are less about money and more about greasing the wheels of risk.</li>
<li>It still requires that OTHER PEOPLE take risk. Shorts covered. New speculative longs made. Better financing but still the same recourse. </li>
<li>But everything is going up. And believe it or not, Hs are outperforming As. Broker and Bank Hs seem like the right place to be.</li>
</ul>


Everything changed this past week. China has launched major public stimulus programs which seem open-ended. They are less about money and more about greasing the wheels of risk.
It still requires that OTHER PEOPLE take risk. Shorts covered. New speculative longs made. Better financing but still the same recourse. 
But everything is going up. And believe it or not, Hs are outperforming As. Broker and Bank Hs seem like the right place to be.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 Sep 2024): Hs Outperforming Explosive Chinese Stimulus

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CSRC's Market Value Management Guidelines will indirectly benefit the H-share stocks with their A-share counterparts with a P/B of below 1x.  </li>
<li>Chinese banks dominated the list with below-book A-shares. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16221:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Bank (6818 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-citic-bank-corp-ltd-ea6c25fd-4b20-45cb-a4a6-df7a60136f03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:653:1" rel="noopener">China Citic Bank H (998 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> are the prime beneficiaries.</li>
<li>Infrastructure construction companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-construction-corp-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:263:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Cons Corp (1186 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group H (390 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Comm Cons (1800 HK)</a> are also well-positioned to gain.</li>
</ul>


CSRC's Market Value Management Guidelines will indirectly benefit the H-share stocks with their A-share counterparts with a P/B of below 1x.  
Chinese banks dominated the list with below-book A-shares. China Everbright Bank (6818 HK), China Citic Bank H (998 HK), and ICBC (H) (1398 HK) are the prime beneficiaries.
Infrastructure construction companies China Railway Cons Corp (1186 HK), China Railway Group H (390 HK), and China Comm Cons (1800 HK) are also well-positioned to gain.


China & HK Strategy: Names to Watch for Market Value Management

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Electric Group Company / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Long-Only portfolio launched on October 1st with objective to generate alpha in the Hong Kong market.</li>
<li>Stocks are chosen from single stock insights as well as sector and weekly publications.</li>
<li>Positions will be adjusted once a month and the cash position will vary based on market conditions.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Long-Only portfolio launched on October 1st with objective to generate alpha in the Hong Kong market.
Stocks are chosen from single stock insights as well as sector and weekly publications.
Positions will be adjusted once a month and the cash position will vary based on market conditions.


Zhejiang Expressway Co H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>By way of its 54.79% ownership in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheshang-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29981:1" rel="noopener">Zheshang Securities (601878 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK)</a> is an attractive indirect vehicle to access the mainland securities sector.  </li>
<li>The attributable market cap of Zheshang equals 90% of ZJE's market cap, implying that the toll road business is almost free. However, Zheshang only contributed 16% of ZJE's 1H24 profit.</li>
<li>ZJE trades on 6.7x FY24F PER, vs. 31.3x for Zheshang and 17.6x for H-share securities companies. A stable toll road business also minimises the risk for ZJE.</li>
</ul>


By way of its 54.79% ownership in Zheshang Securities (601878 CH), Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) is an attractive indirect vehicle to access the mainland securities sector.  
The attributable market cap of Zheshang equals 90% of ZJE's market cap, implying that the toll road business is almost free. However, Zheshang only contributed 16% of ZJE's 1H24 profit.
ZJE trades on 6.7x FY24F PER, vs. 31.3x for Zheshang and 17.6x for H-share securities companies. A stable toll road business also minimises the risk for ZJE.


Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

<ul>
<li>China considers launching a stock stabilization fund which could release RmB800B in liquidity support for the market.  Securities firms and insurance companies will be the major beneficiaries.</li>
<li>The mega merger between  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> could be the precursor to further industry consolidation.</li>
<li>Hong Kong trading volumes and IPO's set to surge as Beijing lifts sentiment.</li>
</ul>


China considers launching a stock stabilization fund which could release RmB800B in liquidity support for the market.  Securities firms and insurance companies will be the major beneficiaries.
The mega merger between  Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) and Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) could be the precursor to further industry consolidation.
Hong Kong trading volumes and IPO's set to surge as Beijing lifts sentiment.


China

China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities services. The Company provides securities underwriting, securities brokerage, securities investment advisory, securities transaction, and other services. China Galaxy Securities provides its services throughout China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 Sep 2024): Hs Outperforming Explosive Chinese Stimulus

China changed everything last week. Or at least it looks like they did. Money everywhere. Stock up. Today is unrelenting. ChiNext Tech from a...

Travis Lundy

China & HK Strategy: Names to Watch for Market Value Management

SASAC issued "Several opinions on improving and strengthening the market value management of listed companies controlled by central enterprises"...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO - Introduction

We have launched a Hong Kong portfolio with the aim to outperform HK indexes and generate alpha. Stocks are chosen from those highlighted in our...

David Mudd

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong/China Brokers: TAKE THE OFFER!

The HK/China brokers: 6030, 3908, 6886, 6806, 6881, 1776, 6178, 1456, 165, and 6099 have gained between 90% and 100% since the report was published...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 27 Sep 2024): Hs Outperforming Explosive Chinese Stimulus

China changed everything last week. Or at least it looks like they did. Money everywhere. Stock up. Today is unrelenting. ChiNext Tech from a...

Travis Lundy

China & HK Strategy: Names to Watch for Market Value Management

SASAC issued "Several opinions on improving and strengthening the market value management of listed companies controlled by central enterprises"...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO - Introduction

We have launched a Hong Kong portfolio with the aim to outperform HK indexes and generate alpha. Stocks are chosen from those highlighted in our...

David Mudd

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

​Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong/China Brokers: TAKE THE OFFER!

The HK/China brokers: 6030, 3908, 6886, 6806, 6881, 1776, 6178, 1456, 165, and 6099 have gained between 90% and 100% since the report was published...

David Mudd

Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...